With the latest rumours stating, the J-10CEs for Uzbekistan being close to being delivered it would be interesting to know if they will also have the same dark grey colour scheme like their MiG-29s?!
PRC military aviation export/sales
- Thread starter Totoro
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With the latest rumours stating, the J-10CEs for Uzbekistan being close to being delivered it would be interesting to know if they will also have the same dark grey colour scheme like their MiG-29s?!
Given the speculation about prospective J-10 exports in that other thread, I though I would revisit something I wrote 6 years ago. Lots of things changed, of course. But the gist of the list still stands. I excluded politically unlikely countries, which includes pretty much the entire Middle East and South America and I distilled it to fewer countries which I believe have some chances to be buyers of J-10CE. More countries may be buying JF-17, but that's not relevant to this post.
Yemen
Yemen had a fleet of mostly soviet fighters, but also some old F-5s. But most got destroyed in the civil war. Houthis are not likely to invest in fighter jets. While the other Yemeni government is likely
not strong enough to re-establish one. I'd say no fighter jets from any nation.
Sudan
Sudan allegedly has modern Chinese SAMs, which if true is a good sign of deepening military cooperation. It also has a varied fleet of ex soviet planes and old chinese planes. So they're a good
candidate of replacing all those with a single or two model chinese fleet. That could be just JF17s
but it could also be a mix of JF17 and J10. Sudan isn't so poor that it couldn't afford some.
Libya
Has a mix of old and probably largely inoperational planes. Is split into factions in reality. There were alleged reports of a small JF17 contract. Not sure the money is there to reestablish a proper, larger air force for any faction and JF17s might be as far as can Libya go.
Azerbaijan (already has JF17).
Azeris may not get the J10 as well, even though they have the money. But chances are still low overall, because they have an order for like 40 JF17 airframes. Given their current fleet of Su25 and Mig29 - such a number goes over the total current number of fighter jets. So there may not be room nor need to be adding even more planes. Let alone making them of a different model.
Turkmenistan has a mix of old soviet planes and newer Italian and Brazilian planes. It doesn't seem to be buying too many chinese vehicles or SAM systems, (it allegedly does have some uavs) so making a jump to fighter jets may not be so plausible. I know there were reports years ago about them getting HQ9 but a decade passed and we haven't really seen imagery of those. Plus its defense budget is pretty small, so even if they did buy something, i'd probably be some JF17, not the more expensive J10.
Uzbekistan has a big ex soviet fleet. But it recently ordered russian su30sm so it still seems to be tied into Russian hardware. While some uavs were ordered from china, others were ordered from turkey as well. It doesn't mean much. Perhaps a better indication is uzbek purchase of HQ9. It's possible thus that Uzbekistan will go for both russian and chinese hardware. A flanker and J10 mix isn't senseless. And it does have the budget to buy J10s if it wants to.
Egypt is the famous prospective buyer and it certainly has all the right checkboxes filled. The history is there, the money is there, the need is there. It all boils down to politics and US influence over Egypt. It's a strong maybe I guess.
Bangladesh has a lot of Chinese J7 that it could replace, though they're not actually that old. It also has russian mig29s which are repordetly in a sorry state. Given the long lead times of fighter jet contracts, its possible a JF17 and J10 combo could be ordered. Though personally just a JF17 fleet seems like a better choice for Bangladesh. Allegedly JF17 is already the subject of talks with Pakistan. But you never know.
Thailand has lots of old F16s and some new Gripens. Is overall leaning towards West when it comes to air force. But curiously enough buys Chinese SAMs, ships and submarines. So the cooperation is there. The money is there too. It's perfectly possible that some J10s might be bought, to serve as
a higher end mix to Gripens in the future.
Myanmar
Has some Jf17 already and has also recently ordered Su30s from russia. So it seems to be set for a high low mix from both countries. Su30s replacing older mig29s and JF17s replacing older J7s. And there doesn't seem to be room or need for J10 in that mix.
Ethiopia
Has old soviet planes but recently also ordered ex indian Su30s. Has some chinese drones but
overall budget is quite small so there may not be room or money to go for yet another type, next to "new" Su30s.
Angola
Has mostly soviet stuff but has ordered Su30 from Russia not too long ago. The budget is not that big so there may not be room for additional type. And ceratinly, besides su30, any other type would be JF17 sized, rather than J10 sized.
Kenya has old F-5 fighters. There is some history of Chinese equipment being bought. but it bought israeli SAMs, for example. Doesn't seem likely it'd go for higher end Chinese offerings.
Somalia has reportedly JF17 on order and that looks like the maximum for them. Don't seem them having the need or money for J10 as well.
Zimbabwe has some old J7s and they allegedly even bought higher end chinese SAMs. Their budget might support JF17s, which allegedly are being negotiated. But I don't see them going for a two plane type mix. J10C seem unlikely.
Bottom line: of all the countries listed - Sudan, Uzbekistan, Bangladesh, Thailand and maybe Egypt (if it can clear the political hurdles) seem like plausible buyers. Multiple countries are probable but perhaps not all will buy the J10. Certainly, If Egypt goes for it, then we could be talking about multiple dozens of planes just for that one country. All others should be fairly small buys of a dozen or two dozen.
Yemen
Yemen had a fleet of mostly soviet fighters, but also some old F-5s. But most got destroyed in the civil war. Houthis are not likely to invest in fighter jets. While the other Yemeni government is likely
not strong enough to re-establish one. I'd say no fighter jets from any nation.
Sudan
Sudan allegedly has modern Chinese SAMs, which if true is a good sign of deepening military cooperation. It also has a varied fleet of ex soviet planes and old chinese planes. So they're a good
candidate of replacing all those with a single or two model chinese fleet. That could be just JF17s
but it could also be a mix of JF17 and J10. Sudan isn't so poor that it couldn't afford some.
Libya
Has a mix of old and probably largely inoperational planes. Is split into factions in reality. There were alleged reports of a small JF17 contract. Not sure the money is there to reestablish a proper, larger air force for any faction and JF17s might be as far as can Libya go.
Azerbaijan (already has JF17).
Azeris may not get the J10 as well, even though they have the money. But chances are still low overall, because they have an order for like 40 JF17 airframes. Given their current fleet of Su25 and Mig29 - such a number goes over the total current number of fighter jets. So there may not be room nor need to be adding even more planes. Let alone making them of a different model.
Turkmenistan has a mix of old soviet planes and newer Italian and Brazilian planes. It doesn't seem to be buying too many chinese vehicles or SAM systems, (it allegedly does have some uavs) so making a jump to fighter jets may not be so plausible. I know there were reports years ago about them getting HQ9 but a decade passed and we haven't really seen imagery of those. Plus its defense budget is pretty small, so even if they did buy something, i'd probably be some JF17, not the more expensive J10.
Uzbekistan has a big ex soviet fleet. But it recently ordered russian su30sm so it still seems to be tied into Russian hardware. While some uavs were ordered from china, others were ordered from turkey as well. It doesn't mean much. Perhaps a better indication is uzbek purchase of HQ9. It's possible thus that Uzbekistan will go for both russian and chinese hardware. A flanker and J10 mix isn't senseless. And it does have the budget to buy J10s if it wants to.
Egypt is the famous prospective buyer and it certainly has all the right checkboxes filled. The history is there, the money is there, the need is there. It all boils down to politics and US influence over Egypt. It's a strong maybe I guess.
Bangladesh has a lot of Chinese J7 that it could replace, though they're not actually that old. It also has russian mig29s which are repordetly in a sorry state. Given the long lead times of fighter jet contracts, its possible a JF17 and J10 combo could be ordered. Though personally just a JF17 fleet seems like a better choice for Bangladesh. Allegedly JF17 is already the subject of talks with Pakistan. But you never know.
Thailand has lots of old F16s and some new Gripens. Is overall leaning towards West when it comes to air force. But curiously enough buys Chinese SAMs, ships and submarines. So the cooperation is there. The money is there too. It's perfectly possible that some J10s might be bought, to serve as
a higher end mix to Gripens in the future.
Myanmar
Has some Jf17 already and has also recently ordered Su30s from russia. So it seems to be set for a high low mix from both countries. Su30s replacing older mig29s and JF17s replacing older J7s. And there doesn't seem to be room or need for J10 in that mix.
Ethiopia
Has old soviet planes but recently also ordered ex indian Su30s. Has some chinese drones but
overall budget is quite small so there may not be room or money to go for yet another type, next to "new" Su30s.
Angola
Has mostly soviet stuff but has ordered Su30 from Russia not too long ago. The budget is not that big so there may not be room for additional type. And ceratinly, besides su30, any other type would be JF17 sized, rather than J10 sized.
Kenya has old F-5 fighters. There is some history of Chinese equipment being bought. but it bought israeli SAMs, for example. Doesn't seem likely it'd go for higher end Chinese offerings.
Somalia has reportedly JF17 on order and that looks like the maximum for them. Don't seem them having the need or money for J10 as well.
Zimbabwe has some old J7s and they allegedly even bought higher end chinese SAMs. Their budget might support JF17s, which allegedly are being negotiated. But I don't see them going for a two plane type mix. J10C seem unlikely.
Bottom line: of all the countries listed - Sudan, Uzbekistan, Bangladesh, Thailand and maybe Egypt (if it can clear the political hurdles) seem like plausible buyers. Multiple countries are probable but perhaps not all will buy the J10. Certainly, If Egypt goes for it, then we could be talking about multiple dozens of planes just for that one country. All others should be fairly small buys of a dozen or two dozen.
Don't forget that the UAE has purchased Chinese-made Hongdu L-15A training and light attack aircraft.
I think they've bought 12, with an option for 36 more for like $440 million.
The aircraft is designed to train pilots on advanced 4th generation, and possibly 5th generation, fighters.
Now, I do not know if this will ever transition into something else, like J-10C (unlikely, we bought 80 Rafale Fighter jets), or maybe J-35A because the $50B F-35 deal fell through and probably abandoned. and I don't see China handing UAE one of its most prized fighter jet programs while UAE operates Patriots, THAAD, and other (mainly) western based AD systems.
I think they've bought 12, with an option for 36 more for like $440 million.
The aircraft is designed to train pilots on advanced 4th generation, and possibly 5th generation, fighters.
Now, I do not know if this will ever transition into something else, like J-10C (unlikely, we bought 80 Rafale Fighter jets), or maybe J-35A because the $50B F-35 deal fell through and probably abandoned. and I don't see China handing UAE one of its most prized fighter jet programs while UAE operates Patriots, THAAD, and other (mainly) western based AD systems.
I thought that Kazakhstan, not Uzbekistan, purchased Su-30SM? If they did they’d be showing it off during the recent Air Force promotion shoot.
Kazakhstan did, of course. Sorry. It appears Uzbekistan was in negotiations with Russia on Su30 but that way some years ago and still nothing seen to date. So Uzbekistan might actually be at the top of the list for Chinese prospects, if Russia is not seriously considered anymore. There were some rumors about Rafales for them but I'd say China has a better chance there.
Don't forget that the UAE has purchased Chinese-made Hongdu L-15A training and light attack aircraft.
I think they've bought 12, with an option for 36 more for like $440 million.
The aircraft is designed to train pilots on advanced 4th generation, and possibly 5th generation, fighters.
Now, I do not know if this will ever transition into something else, like J-10C (unlikely, we bought 80 Rafale Fighter jets), or maybe J-35A because the $50B F-35 deal fell through and probably abandoned. and I don't see China handing UAE one of its most prized fighter jet programs while UAE operates Patriots, THAAD, and other (mainly) western based AD systems.
And given the fact that they plan to build the TA-20 locally as well it is IMO the strongest hint that the UAE is one of the best candidates for J-35AE!
If Chna wanted to export J-10 to North Korea, they would have done so yet they have not because former is unreliable to latter.
Ever since 1980's consistently so.
I have actually never heard of this (even though i was at Dubai Airshow) so let me expand a bit.
It's a Chinese Zhongke TA-20, all Carbon turboprop trainer/light attack aircraft.
I think it has some Austrian Origin that only two countries use (Russia being one of them) and China, now perhaps UAE will start manufacturing them under the name Hamdan F3
To give more context, Hamdan is the name of the Crown prince of Dubai (One of the seven Emirates, basically UAE's Shanghai in China, thoug on a miniscule scale)
Now for J-35AE? I really don't know and would actually love more insight from Deino on why or how that could even happen? after all, UAE's entire AD systems are Western, and UAE does rely heavily on American military help and support, but on the other hand we are trying to diversify (to some extent) and we do buy some chinese military technologies but until now we're yet to sign a big deal like an MBT, Naval ship, AD battery, missiles, or a stealth fighter like the J-35AE.
But TBH, I would love to see the J-35AE flying in UAE's airspace.
I think the issue is whether China trusts UAE enough after their arms transfer episode with RSF (FK series AD/suicide drones/UCAV) without express PRC approval.
China Pakistan Saudi arabia one side Israel(USA) India UAE second side. So you guys do think that UAE will buy or China will sell them most modern chinese fighter jets?
I have heard some rumors that Kazakhstan looking for a modernization their su 30sm. Who do think help them with this? China like j-16 package or Israel/India with their opal system making bridge communication gaps and enhance Link 16 tactical data links?
Uzbekistan using fully chinese solutions for air defense system and chinese fighter jets expected to be next solution for changing MiG-29 and su-25
I have heard some rumors that Kazakhstan looking for a modernization their su 30sm. Who do think help them with this? China like j-16 package or Israel/India with their opal system making bridge communication gaps and enhance Link 16 tactical data links?
Uzbekistan using fully chinese solutions for air defense system and chinese fighter jets expected to be next solution for changing MiG-29 and su-25