PRC military aviation export/sales

[Andy1974]

Euro 4.5 gen also includes Gripen.

Other potential J-10 buyers:

Turkmenistan
Kazakhstan
Algeria
Egypt
Iran
Indonesia
Bangladesh
Sri Lanka
Serbia

Mig-29 operators can use PL-15E, and are potential future J-10 buyers, ones not in your list are:

Armenia
Azerbaijan
Belarus
Malaysia
Myanmar
Sudan
Syria
Peru

Other countries that have been linked with Chinese fighters:

Saudi Arabia
UAE
Colombia
Central African Republic
Laos
Thailand

Some of these countries are poor, but I think if they have valuable natural resources then China can work out financing.

And why not BRICS members:

Brazil
Ethiopia
South Africa

That’s about 25 countries, total addressable market is, let’s say, an average of 24 J-10’s each would be a whopping 600.

 

[Deino]

From York in the stream today:

"The J-10C has far more than just two customers. The publicly known ones, as everyone knows, are Pakistan and Uzbekistan. Uzbekistan is currently taking delivery, but in reality, there are far more than two users. That's all I can say"

Thanks, but if those for Uzbekistan are „currently taking delivery“, but why haven‘t we seen any of it so far from the fronts of the otherwise always very active spotters in CAC?

In fact, I am generally surprised: The Pakistani J-10CEs were seen for the first time virtually out of nowhere at CAC and were delivered quite promptly afterwards (6 months later or so); at least we have some good photos of CAC of Pakistani ones with markings during the pre-delivery flights. This time nothing ... we have a few photos of usually always yellow J-10CEs but nothing else! Why?

 

[sutton999]

Thanks, but if those for Uzbekistan are „currently taking delivery“, but why haven‘t we seen any of it so far from the fronts of the otherwise always very active spotters in CAC?

In fact, I am generally surprised: The Pakistani J-10CEs were seen for the first time virtually out of nowhere at CAC and were delivered quite promptly afterwards (6 months later or so); at least we have some good photos of CAC of Pakistani ones with markings during the pre-delivery flights. This time nothing ... we have a few photos of usually always yellow J-10CEs but nothing else! Why?

Global South countries want to keep a low profile.
The West will threaten these countries with a variety of means.
Russia Jets are OK, but not the Chinese. Pakistan is the exception.

Central Asia contries have a lot of EU money pouring in.
Even the Taliban pushes the Chinese oil drill company out on the condition of EU aid money.

So no exposure until delivery.

Pretty sure South Americans dare not take J10c even for free, Latinos can't handle mean Twitter.

 

[defenceman]

Hi,
if China is not indicting Yellow paint J10c there is a fair chance of someone who is keeping eye on these yellow paint J10 regularly to count and assume who can be next country getting j10s.
thank you

 

[00CuriousObserver]

Thanks, but if those for Uzbekistan are „currently taking delivery“, but why haven‘t we seen any of it so far from the fronts of the otherwise always very active spotters in CAC?

In fact, I am generally surprised: The Pakistani J-10CEs were seen for the first time virtually out of nowhere at CAC and were delivered quite promptly afterwards (6 months later or so); at least we have some good photos of CAC of Pakistani ones with markings during the pre-delivery flights. This time nothing ... we have a few photos of usually always yellow J-10CEs but nothing else! Why?

Well, them taking delivery doesn't necessarily mean we would see anything, especially up until now.

He actually said that part of the reason why the delivery was so fast last time was due to India's Rafale purchase. Balance of power was/is very important.

But things are different this time. He also talked a fair bit about how complex it actually is (to also answer Siege's question) to conduct fighter jet sales, much more complex than selling some ground units. China lacks the kind of export system that the other major exporters have, and it will take time to build

In general, just "be patient"

Mig-29 operators can use PL-15E, and are potential future J-10 buyers, ones not in your list are:

Armenia
Azerbaijan
Belarus
Malaysia
Myanmar
Sudan
Syria
Peru

Other countries that have been linked with Chinese fighters:

Saudi Arabia
UAE
Colombia
Central African Republic
Laos
Thailand

Some of these countries are poor, but I think if they have valuable natural resources then China can work out financing.

And why not BRICS members:

Brazil
Ethiopia
South Africa

That’s about 25 countries, total addressable market is, let’s say, an average of 24 J-10’s each would be a whopping 600.

York also said that at one point China might have agreed to provide the J-10 (the topic was about J-10, but the exact plane wasn't specified) (also it would not be a sale; Kim would "just ask for it") to North Korea. The N Koreans prepped their Sunchon airport, but then the agreement was retracted due to North Korea changing its words about the nuclear stuff. Kim himself was allegedly taken aback by this.

But of course, it's 2026 and things have changed since then. While providing anything of the sort to NK is still unlikely, one should keep a more open mind because, well, things have changed and are changing.

---

Also, I've talked about rumours from York before and the caution one should apply. Still should be applied here. As a source for the kind of claims he's making, he's still "unproven"

 

[Andy1974]

York also said that at one point China might have agreed to provide the J-10 (the topic was about J-10, but the exact plane wasn't specified) (also it would not be a sale; Kim would "just ask for it") to North Korea. The N Koreans prepped their Sunchon airport, but then the agreement was retracted due to North Korea changing its words about the nuclear stuff. Kim himself was allegedly taken aback by this.

But of course, it's 2026 and things have changed since then. While providing anything of the sort to NK is still unlikely, one should keep a more open mind because, well, things have changed and are changing.

---

Also, I've talked about rumours from York before and the caution one should apply. Still should be applied here. As a source for the kind of claims he's making, he's still "unproven"

Here is a map listing potential export countries with NK included.

 

[mack8]

Not much other than a statement from someone for now, but at least Bangladesh getting J-10CE would make sense, replacing their J-7BGs.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2053347640717545706

 

[Black Wolf]

Not much other than a statement from someone for now, but at least Bangladesh getting J-10CE would make sense, replacing their J-7BGs.

On paper, J-10CEs replacing the J-7BGs would certainly make sense. However, it still seems unlikely in the near term considering the BAF currently operates a relatively small combat fleet of only 8 MiG-29s and 36 J-7BGs.

Recent LOI with Leonardo for around 16–18 Eurofighters (single sgdn), along with ongoing J-10CE (2 sqdn) discussions, suggests the BAF is focusing on building a limited number of capable frontline squadrons while maintaining routine CAP & operational requirements.

Although the J-7BGs are ageing platforms but still remain relevant within the BAF’s force structure for sustaining squadron numbers & day-to-day operational duties.

 

[plawolf]

Here is a map listing potential export countries with NK included.
View attachment 174715

That map maker will be looking a bit sheepish if the Russian navy turns out to be the first buyer.

 

[Tomboy]

Here is a map listing potential export countries with NK included.
View attachment 174715

Hopefully atleast half of these customers will (or have concrete signs) materialise before 2030, though I somehow doubt Iran and Syria will ever purchase major Chinese arms and IMO there'll also be some difficulty for SA countries buying due to proximity to the US. Algeria already purchased Su-57Es so its unknown they'd have the budget to buy more J-10CEs which are pretty expensive as well, same with some African countries, I personally don't see many of them having the need or the budget to buy J-10CEs over cheaper fighters like JF-17 or advanced trainers.

As for NK, IMO depends on how close the relationship grows and whether China will want to violate international arms embargo that itself have a hand in signing in a high profile fashion.