2026 Iran War Strategy and Analysis

[manqiangrexue]

Do you remember in June 2025 US-Israeli airstrikes against Iran's nuclear program?

Trump declares unilateral victory, "Iran's nuclear program is obliterated, I won" and he ended all operations, then later kidnapped Maduro in Venezuela to distract.

It won't be the first time he declared unilateral victory when it's not true (Iran's nuclear program was delayed, but not obliterated).

Trump can unilaterally say : "I won, Iran's army/navy/leadership is obliterated, and Hormuz is wide open" and then move on to bully Cuba or bully Greenland or something.

In fact, the CIA is thinking just that.

Exclusive: US spy agencies examine how Iran would react to Trump declaring victory​

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

US intelligence weighs Iranian response to potential Trump unilateral victory declaration​

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

​

​

Trump faces intense pressure to end “costly” Iran war as unilateral victory plan considered​

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

US intelligence needs to analyze how Iran might act if Trump declared victory?? Send those idiots home and give me their salaries. I'll tell you right now what will happen: Iran will declare they have no idea what Trump is talking about and continue to make Lego videos to troll him. I know this because Trump has declared victory almost every day and that has been Iran's response. By the way, those Lego videos are getting popular; lots of Americans on Facebook are saying that it's a sad day when US citizens need to wait for Iran's new Lego video drop to figure out which of US presidents' claims are true and which are false.

 

[protonme18]

US currently a bankrupt nation, Trump knows this Iran war result signify the end of the US empire and he desperately need to turn this around he's already trying since beginning of his 2nd term. In my opinion, I say the decline (the curve started) when US haphazard exits out from Afghanistan, that's the turning point and then Trump came in 2nd term....all the crazies you see happening in US are result of very financial desperate and dire situation...the 7 tech sector that they hope to bet similar to the dotcom and now AI bet, is then knock off by Deep Seek announcement....China already overtaken US all but name in some sector only. So many action they trying to find leverage before the May visit to China which may or may not happen at all

 

[protonme18]

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Egypt’s Live-Fire Drills Just 100 Meters From Israel Border Trigger October 7 Fears, Spark Camp David Security Alarm​

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Egypt senses US empire decline, middle lower power country in the middle east now measuring their military power after seeing Iran humiliate US. US bases there means nothing at all and if a country hard enough can take them down. The positioning of rank in the middle east are now commencing.

We see Pakistan up a notch, Iran up a notch and now Egypt try positioning where do they stand in all of these.

Iran mountainous region is perfect to bring an empire down. Egypt and Pakistan may not, but beating up a country like Israel is possible, of course they have to wary of the US. Egypt don't have much mountains they can use to shield themselves from a foreign power hell bent to bomb them like US, Pakistan terrain are difficult a bit but have ample ways to counter a large power. If they can beat up India, for sure they can withstand US attack but may not be as hardshell as the Iranians

The jammer equipments use by Egypt, courtesy of Russia and China probably very useful in their recent military exercises. Israel now in a very delicate situation.

Turkey recent moves in Syria and aim more to consolidate their gains after ousting Assad.

Only Egypt has not made any gains and now they are starting...we will see. The coming middle east power changes will be interesting to watch, it will happen perhaps in 2 or 3 years.

If the US military takes actions within 6 months, this will further expedite the changes. They are trying to re-position the losses and put the lid of control back to the middle east. I would say, not that easy....lets see what Trump does...

 

[siegecrossbow]

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Egypt’s Live-Fire Drills Just 100 Meters From Israel Border Trigger October 7 Fears, Spark Camp David Security Alarm​

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Egypt senses US empire decline, middle lower power country in the middle east now measuring their military power after seeing Iran humiliate US. US bases there means nothing at all and if a country hard enough can take them down. The positioning of rank in the middle east are now commencing.

We see Pakistan up a notch, Iran up a notch and now Egypt try positioning where do they stand in all of these.

Iran mountainous region is perfect to bring an empire down. Egypt and Pakistan may not, but beating up a country like Israel is possible, of course they have to wary of the US. Egypt don't have much mountains they can use to shield themselves from a foreign power hell bent to bomb them like US, Pakistan terrain are difficult a bit but have ample ways to counter a large power. If they can beat up India, for sure they can withstand US attack but may not be as hardshell as the Iranians

The jammer equipments use by Egypt, courtesy of Russia and China probably very useful in their recent military exercises. Israel now in a very delicate situation.

Turkey recent moves in Syria and aim more to consolidate their gains after ousting Assad.

Only Egypt has not made any gains and now they are starting...we will see. The coming middle east power changes will be interesting to watch, it will happen perhaps in 2 or 3 years.

If the US military takes actions within 6 months, this will further expedite the changes. They are trying to re-position the losses and put the lid of control back to the middle east. I would say, not that easy....lets see what Trump does...

Bet Sisi is kicking himself over not buying J-10C/KJ-500 when he had the chance (before May 7th 2025).

 

[MortyandRick]

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Can Iran hold out? How long can they survive with the naval blockade?

Really should try to his some US Navy shits with drones, like what Ukraine did to Russia.

 

[Serb]

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Can Iran hold out? How long can they survive with the naval blockade?

Really should try to his some US Navy shits with drones, like what Ukraine did to Russia.

Whether they can "hold on" is more of a sociological and cultural question than an economic problem as it stands.

As during the Iran-Iraq war, they went into it from a much worse starting position and persevered until the very end.

And this time, the US sure did damn everything it could to unite the population behind the regime due to extraordinary incompetence.

Undoubtedly, this situation has already created unprecedented national unity even among the regime's previous haters and hardened it.

Since they have basic self-sufficiency in crucial things (and friendly help), I think that if it comes to it, they will outlast the US.

Instead of uniting, this war is rapidly polarizing the already pretty polarized and angry US population.

Support behind the president and his war effort from the onset was meager, and it could only get worse.

Moreover, judging from CSIS reports, the US has already spent half of the previously used missiles & interceptors.

If the US chooses to resume this war, it will have to involve a higher rate of casualties and possible ground operations.

Which actually plays into the Iranian hand the most. Moreover, the US economy is unhealthy as it could be.

The US is not going into this war from the position of WW2, but from the biggest leveraged scam economy in history.

 

[Temstar]

Ayi and Yankee talked about this topic in yesterday's chahuahui, then Ayi wrote this longer piece about it:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Trump has started a war that he cannot easily wrap up. He is now under pressure from two sides, and the demands of these two forces are sharply contradictory.

On one hand, the U.S. military-industrial complex is telling Trump that Iran must be decisively defeated in order to effectively deter China. Because if Iran cannot be beaten, everything else is meaningless — no one will believe that old white men’s winnism crap about “China is actually much weaker than IRGC.”

The first to jump out on this front is Admiral Paparo, commander of USINDOPACOM. Contrary to the outside speculation that “Paparo is worried about insufficient munitions for China,” Paparo is a hardline go-all-in-on-Iran advocate. He has already made a political stance, proactively asking the Joint Chiefs to “let the Pacific theater tighten its belt a little more”—shifting all Pacific theater munitions to go all-in bet on Iran. His attitude is clear: the PLA is not going to attack tomorrow anyway; whatever problems come, sort them out after winning the war.

Beyond Paparo, Hegseth holds the same attitude. Under this influence, the hangers-on at think tanks like CSIS have already written more than one piece beating the drum for using all munitions to go all-in on Iran, because “maybe a Taiwan Strait conflict won’t happen after all”—better to solve the problem right in front of you than to worry about a future one.

In this light, the Strait of Hormuz is the Mannerheim Line of our era. The reason the Continuation War broke out on June 22, 1941 is that no matter how much the Soviets humiliated themselves in the Winter War, they still managed to chew through that line. Otherwise the war would have started in 1940.

On the other hand, Trump cannot bear the political consequences of a prolonged war with Iran.

Trump’s $1.5 trillion military spending proposal has already hit major legislative trouble. The GOP establishment and the MAGA faction are collectively jumping ship, drawing a clear line between themselves and Trump and Hegseth on the military budget.

After all, the money is Trump’s, but the votes are their own. With only six months until the midterms, Republicans feel that if they don’t step up investment in welfare now, the drastic increase in defense spending plus an unpopular Iran war could lead to an electoral meltdown. Voters don’t buy into high-minded victory doctrines; they will simply use their ballots to take revenge on any candidate who voted yes on those bills.

And the cost of the TACO is something Trump also cannot afford. Under this democratic system, losing is worse than death. And President Trump just happens to be the type who’s prone to catching a bullet.

So right now, talk of a second Iran war is still premature. For Trump, there are no good choices left.

Personally, I believe Trump’s cabinet possesses all the traits of a militarist government like Shouwa Japan. For that reason, Trump may, as Axios has speculated, attempt in the near term to use a short, concentrated bombing campaign against Iran’s infrastructure to try to bring Iran to heel. But whether he can bear the consequences of doing so is a whole new unknown.

I personally think even if Trump has the balls to kick off another offensive, at best the result would be an Operation Linebacker II. You force Iran to accept another ceasefire and go back to negotiation table but it wouldn't change the final outcome of the war. And USAF could hardly sustain loses like 15 strategic bombers downed today.

One of Ayi's prediction is not only will you see LRHW going to CENTCOM, you will eventually see the Typhon system in Philippines going there too.

 

[MortyandRick]

Whether they can "hold on" is more of a sociological and cultural question than an economic problem as it stands.

As during the Iran-Iraq war, they went into it from a much worse starting position and persevered until the very end.

And this time, the US sure did damn everything it could to unite the population behind the regime due to extraordinary incompetence.

Undoubtedly, this situation has already created unprecedented national unity even among the regime's previous haters and hardened it.

Since they have basic self-sufficiency in crucial things (and friendly help), I think that if it comes to it, they will outlast the US.

Instead of uniting, this war is rapidly polarizing the already pretty polarized and angry US population.

Support behind the president and his war effort from the onset was meager, and it could only get worse.

Moreover, judging from CSIS reports, the US has already spent half of the previously used missiles & interceptors.

If the US chooses to resume this war, it will have to involve a higher rate of casualties and possible ground operations.

Which actually plays into the Iranian hand the most. Moreover, the US economy is unhealthy as it could be.

The US is not going into this war from the position of WW2, but from the biggest leveraged scam economy in history.

Thats a bit optimistic when food inflation is 50%?

Id love for Iran to outlast the US, but a blockade like this affects Iran disproportionately compared to the US. I think the only way for Iran to so try and constantly attack those blockading ships with drones if possible

 

[bebops]

Pakistan has opened several trade corridor with Iran. Iran could also use the Caspian sea, China linked railway, and its adjacent neighbor countries to trade. The question is Will this be enough or close to enough to replace the sea strait.

China was going to connect an oil pipe from Pak to Iran but that project didn't come to fruition.

Can Iran deliver their oil to Pak's ports by truck tankers, then have China's oil tanker to go there to pick up?

 

[plawolf]

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Can Iran hold out? How long can they survive with the naval blockade?

Really should try to his some US Navy shits with drones, like what Ukraine did to Russia.

The far more pertinent question should be, how long can the western economies survive the blockade and how much permanent industrial damage and reduction in quality of life they will endure if they do. The economic projections I have seen suggest that even if the west manages to reduce their consumption of oil and gas to peak Covid19 lockdown levels, that still would only cover about half of the lost supply.

The western world’s collective economy is about to take an economic tsunami, and everyone is just burying their heads in the sand like not thinking about it will magically make it not happen. All the while the west pretends like this isn’t real and keeps calm and carrying on as normal, the worse the hit will be when it does hit as all the west has done is literally burn through what meagre reserves they had trying to pretend like nothing is wrong.

Iran is fine with the blockade, that was their play. All the American blockade back has done is made that play far more powerful and less costly than the Iranians had any right to expect.

They have reserves and their people can endure that pain as every American sanction since the revolution proves. What more, they have alternative supply routes through the Caspian Sea, direct rail links to China, and most recently, new land corridors through Pakistan now. They won’t be living like kings, but they will be able to get everything they need to keep going for as long as they need to. And if they do run short on hard currency, China is going to be more than happy to extend them all the credit they could ever need. They would be idiots not to as not only would this fuck over the Americans, it also means they are effectively buying future supplies of Iranian oil and gas at a fraction of the market price. It’s a rare thing to be able to deal a mortal blow to your chief geopolitical adversary while making stupendous amounts of profit.