PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

siegecrossbow

siegecrossbow

Field Marshall
Staff member
Super Moderator
plawolf said:
You fundamentally misunderstand the role and purpose of western ‘think’-tanks.

Western think-tank’s primary purpose is to advocate for whatever the hell the party in power wants to do. Say the government wants to privatise public assets and make them their own private property at a fraction of the cost, they will get a host of appropriate think-thanks to publish reports complain about how inefficient those services are being run by the government and recommend privatisation to improve efficiency, and the government uses this ‘outside independent expert opinion’ as justification for doing what they really wanted to from the start. And when it inevitably fail to produce any of the promised benefits, the officials who made the decision gets to throw their arms up in faux exasperation and play victim claiming they were just doing what they thought was best based on expert opinion!

There is also a secondary role where think tanks serve as a two-fold jobs programme for the advisors and strategists of both parties when they loose an election so they have a nice fat pay cheque to bide them over until their party are in power again. The second part of their role is a training programme for next gen advisors and strategists to apprentice under those party officials on effective gardening leave.

Providing actually sound, professional and independent advice has never been part of the job of think-tanks.
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I think that the problem of having such incompetent analysts was masks when the U.S. was powerful. Presently issues are beginning to manifest to say the least.
 
A

abenomics12345

Junior Member
Registered Member
tokenanalyst said:
I really fail to understand Think Tank stooges. They are either ignorant or dumb. They don´t understand China, they think China is this country with a giant inertia that sit and do nothing, that is their version of deterrence. There is not deterrence here, they are going to provoke China into out build them, out number them, out gun them and out class them. China usually respond to threats with more assertiveness instead of deterrence.

- In Korea after the US ignored the warnings the Chinese didn´t sit back and waited for the US to take the entire Korean Peninsula, they attacked and push them back.

- When Soviets broke with China the Chinese didn´t sit back, they build the fission and fusion nuclear bombs themselves also all kind of military equipment and even computers.

- When US parked their Aircraft Carriers in 1996 China responded with a more aggressive military modernization.

-When Obama announced the pivot to Asia and military containment of China, Hu Jintao and then Xi Jinping responded with the biggest asymmetrical build up ever, with massive amount of diverse drones and missiles, the fastest symmetrical build up of the Air Force and the Navy and a more assertive policy in the Pacific. All of the still haunt the US today.

-The economy choke hold of Obama TPP was announced it was met with China own trade deals, the RCEP and the Belt and Road.

-When the US tightened the export controls on China companies, they didn´t sit back and waited for companies to Huawei to die, they didn´t waited to build 28nm fabs in 2045. They responded with the fastest and biggest semiconductor build up in China Industrial history. Basically creating an entire supply chain.

There is no deterrence, China always respond to threats with assertiveness and diplomacy with dialog.
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Wrought

Wrought

Captain
Registered Member
US Naval War College report on the steadily increasing sophisticatation of annual amphibious exercises.

  • The exercise consolidated elements from previous years into a single simulated operation. It integrated a floating causeway system, anti-landing barriers and obstacles, and amphibious Landing Craft Tank (LCT) vessels that landed forces directly onto beachheads.
  • For the first time observed, the PLA conducted a phased exercise with simultaneous amphibious landings in three distinct locations. Exercise areas incorporated civilian aquaculture obstacles like those expected to be found along Taiwan’s coastline, increasing environmental and tactical realism.
  • The exercise occurred at simulated “landing locations” opposite Taiwan, particularly within the Zhangzhou-Xiamen-Quanzhou littoral zone. The locations were distributed at distance intervals comparable to likely wartime beachheads along Taiwan’s western coastline. The total distance between discrete exercise locations was approximately 360 kilometers, roughly the distance between Taipei and Kaohsiung.
  • Not merely hypothetical in nature, the exercise reflected a specific geographical and operational focus. It appears to be part of a larger trend whereby the PLA is mapping its exercises onto analogous geography that reflects envisioned targets.
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