2026 Iran War Strategy and Analysis

[iewgnem]

Isn't having US special forces board and seize tanker ships is super risky. Who is to say these Iranian tankers don't have secret pop-up MANPADS or ship-based SHORADs to blow up these incoming US helicopters or small boats? Who is the say these Iranian tankers aren't booby-traped like crazy or set-up with IRGC special forces onboard that can lay an ambush? This pushes it to Close quarter combat really equalizes the two militaries and reduces US airpower/firepower/tech advantage.

I'm gonna bet they didn't board the tanker, or as Iran said tried, got fired on and left.

1 - Most obvious is they wouldn't need to target the engine room if they could board.
2 - Targeting the engine room make boarding meaningless as US has no ability to tow the ship anywhere, so they'd have to take a risk they wouldn't take prior to firing, but only after the reward for taking that risk went to zero.
3 - US claim they went onboard to inspect cargo, which is an obvious lie because you physically can't open containers at sea.

I'm gonna bet the only reason they claimed they boarded the ship after firing on it is because it's impossible to explain why they'd fire on a ship if they already boarded it.

But hey all they need to do is release a video of the boarding and standing on bridge, weird they didn't release any along with video of opening fire, but I say we wait 48 hours to make the call.

 

[gd47]

Iranian forces also used boats with guns to enforce their blockade...not just missiles/drones. So....same tactic, just smaller.
Why do you say they have no ability to tow the ship?
Boarding after disabling is helpful because trying to board a moving vessel is not trivial. A stationary target is much safer.
The video shows that they were tracking with this ship for at least some time, perhaps hours. So clearly they waited for the last possible moment to escalate to minimise risk.

 

[ohan_qwe]

The situation is kind of strange where US and Iran attack ships under ceasefire. If the fighting resumes it would be interesting to see if US destroyes can handle the drone swarms comming at them when being so close. Maybe Iran have some AShM left too.

 

[iewgnem]

Iranian forces also used boats with guns to enforce their blockade...not just missiles/drones. So....same tactic, just smaller.
Why do you say they have no ability to tow the ship?
Boarding after disabling is helpful because trying to board a moving vessel is not trivial. A stationary target is much safer.
The video shows that they were tracking with this ship for at least some time, perhaps hours. So clearly they waited for the last possible moment to escalate to minimise risk.

Are you under the impression Iranian speed boats are there to shoot at the ships? With what? small arms? They're there to remind ship of missile targeting, which Iran physically demonstrated in the first 2 week of the war with many dead until everyone fell in line.

Tuska is 60k tons, you need a dedicated ocean-going tug and a rare one at that, then survive being fired on by Iran.

And do you really want to go with US marines are not afraid of Iranian forces on the ship but are afraid of 14 knot wind? lol

Tracking the ship for 6 hour also means you're not tracking anything else for 6 hours, hence why if you need to do it this way you're not running a real blockade.

 

[gd47]

Are you under the impression Iranian speed boats are there to shoot at the ships? With what? small arms? They're there to remind ship of missile targeting, which Iran physically demonstrated in the first 2 week of the war with many dead until everyone fell in line.

Tuska is 60k tons, you need a dedicated ocean-going tug and a rare one at that, then survive being fired on by Iran.

And do you really want to go with US marines are not afraid of Iranian forces on the ship but are afraid of 14 knot wind? lol

Tracking the ship for 6 hour also means you're not tracking anything else for 6 hours, hence why if you need to do it this way you're not running a real blockade.

Yes, commercial ships tend to not like being shot at, even with AKs and HMGs, it literally just happened in the past few days where ships turned around due to Iranian speedboat fire.

They are 'afraid of 14 knot wind' in the sense that there is no reason not to do things in the safest way possible. Why complicate things if you don't need to? This war is already deeply unpopular domestically, unnecessary casualties are not some testament to strength or bravery.

I agree that the blockade is not 100% foolproof, but that doesn't mean it has zero effect. Its a tradeoff between risk and reward. Even Iran's blockade is not 100%, some ships have made the run successfully, many didn't. But the blockade is still largely effective.
Clearly the aim is to achieve their goals with as few casualties as possible, because a high body count is essentially an instant loss condition for the US. Everything else is somewhat negotiable.

 

[iewgnem]

Yes, commercial ships tend to not like being shot at, even with AKs and HMGs, it literally just happened in the past few days where ships turned around due to Iranian speedboat fire.

They are 'afraid of 14 knot wind' in the sense that there is no reason not to do things in the safest way possible. Why complicate things if you don't need to? This war is already deeply unpopular domestically, unnecessary casualties are not some testament to strength or bravery.

I agree that the blockade is not 100% foolproof, but that doesn't mean it has zero effect. Its a tradeoff between risk and reward. Even Iran's blockade is not 100%, some ships have made the run successfully, many didn't. But the blockade is still largely effective.
Clearly the aim is to achieve their goals with as few casualties as possible, because a high body count is essentially an instant loss condition for the US. Everything else is somewhat negotiable.

It's not about if commercial ships like being shot at, it's about AKs literally not able to threaten a commercial ship because there's literally no way to hit anyone inside or to get onboard without a ladder. The ships turned around not because of speedboats but because Iran is telling them on VHF they'll be hit with missiles, missiles they have demonstrated using. And of course there's the consideration that the speed boats might be explosive drones.

I'm not gonna argue with you on if US marines are afraid of 14 knot wind or not, but I will tell you if US is afraid of even the minor risk of 14 knot wind, they're gonna be way more afraid of guys with AK in the corridors.

And no US isn't afraid of high bodycount whatsoever, they already lost hundreds and covering it up is standard protocol, and US killed 2 million of their own men on their biowar against China and didn't even blink, what US fear above all else is humiliation and the risk of the marines getting captured in the ship's corridors is unbearable.

What the US is demonstrating, what they have been demonstrating over the last week, is that they for one reason or another do not dare to board Iranian ships and cannot afford to attack them with ASMs, and as such tankers have been largely ignoring the US blockade for the entire last week, in contrast with Iran's actual blockade.

 

[talonn]

Do we know how many flights Chinese Y-20 flew to Iran so far during this ceasefire?

 

[Michaelsinodef]

Do we know how many flights Chinese Y-20 flew to Iran so far during this ceasefire?

No.

Even if someone monitored air transponders/traffic, they could slip through by simply not having it on.

 

[plawolf]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2045979870681862570

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2046031386503676053

With the almost certain imminent resumption of hostilities, I think it’s worth keeping this development in mind.

These statements represents a sea change in UAE attitudes towards America, and is almost certainly linked to the intensive back channel diplomacy that culminated in their crown prince’s recent visit to China, where significant deals would likely have been struck.

While the world’s attention have been focused on the official negotiations in Islamabad, I think the real deals are being made in a much more low key fashion on Beijing.

I think there will be many litmus tests to prove or disprove this theory, the most obvious of which would be the extend of Iranian strikes against UAE and Saudi interests and vice versa once combat resumes.

Also, while people have been focusing on how to run or bypass the Iranian and US blockades, I think it’s now pretty obvious that Iran never seriously wanted to reopen the Strait of Hormuz (SoH), even with tolls, while combat operations are still in full swing. Because doing so will massively undermine their most powerful strategic trump card - the devastating economic and real world impacts the basically total suspension of oil, gas and derivative products will have on the world.

Iran offering to open the straits for a toll was primarily a diplomatic move aimed to undermining the obvious western narrative that all of the economic pain is Iran’s fault. Well, now Iran has offered the world economy a get-out-of-jail-free card, and it is American greed that saw them rip that card up and now the whole world will suffer for it.

It was a master stroke in diplomatic manoeuvring where Iran baited Trump with both continued oil shipments to China, and the allure of all that sweet sweet toll money and Trump true to his nature, couldn’t resist and took the bait, line and sinker.

As the tsunami of economic pain and social unrest that will result now start to really materialise and start to hit home, expect massive public opinion shifts against USIS across the world and especially in their allies/vassal nations, which could well translate into real world diplomatic consequences as we have already seen with Spain.

 

[Atomicfrog]

The situation is kind of strange where US and Iran attack ships under ceasefire. If the fighting resumes it would be interesting to see if US destroyes can handle the drone swarms comming at them when being so close. Maybe Iran have some AShM left too.

Would be clearly worry about torpedo makeshift launchers on cargo ships being intercepted... Iran have an history of cargo ships modifications. Or just detonating one full of fertilizer.