2026 Iran War Strategy and Analysis

[GZDRefugee]

Is your brain only capable of thinking about military matters and nothing else?
For example, expressing a willingness to export anti-ship weapons to Iran, discussing RMB settlement with Middle Eastern oil-producing countries, or reinstating rare earth restrictions—aren't these risk-free forms of deterrence far more reliable than sending warships into the eye of a storm?

Are you dumb? None of the measures you listed address the immediate economic problem of oil and gas being interdicted.

RMB settlement with the Middle East doesn't do shit if boats cannot sail through the Hormuz.

Sending weapons to indirectly kill American sailors is MORE escalatory than a defensive escort.

Cutting off rare earths to sabotage American industry is MORE escalatory than proving their blockade is theater.

Name the fucking risks in sending an escort. WW3 is not gonna happen when the US is already desperately looking for an off ramp with IRAN.

 

[FriedRiceNSpice]

You seem to be imagining that I'm calling for China to send its naval forces to the Middle East and start firing on American CVBGs. Could you please actually read what I wrote instead of responding to what you imagine I'm saying?

Sending ships to the area is fine, there have been Chinese ships in the area since before the start of hostilities. As long as no attempt is made to unnilaterally escort tankers through the blockade.

It would be the US escalating by interdicting a multinational operation. If China escalates in the West Pacific without provocation, it becomes the instigating actor.

If the opportunity for an actual multilateral operation were to emerge, with France/Italy/Spain actually willing to dispatch one of their own ships as well, then China should seriously consider participating.

 

[FriedRiceNSpice]

Are you dumb? None of the measures you listed address the immediate economic problem of oil and gas being interdicted.

But you know what does? Increasing capacity from Russia, ramping up shale oil and gas production, and restricting imports of certain petroleum derived products. The actual economic damage to China is collapse of demand for Chinese products from other countries that are unable to address their energy shortfall. China itself is pretty well insulated from the direct effects of reduction in ME oil imports. CPC has been addressing the energy and food security issue for more than a decade now (since 2014 at the latest).

 

[GZDRefugee]

If the opportunity for an actual multilateral operation were to emerge, with France/Italy/Spain actually willing to dispatch one of their own ships as well, then China should seriously consider participating.

The problem is that the French-led coalition is explicitly to be deployed post-conflict.

But you know what does? Increasing capacity from Russia, ramping up shale oil and gas production, and restricting imports of certain petroleum derived products.

That still takes time and the collapse of global markets would affect China as well. A worldwide recession or depression is not conducive to China's growth and imports.

 

[FriedRiceNSpice]

The problem is that the French-led coalition is explicitly to be deployed post-conflict.

First off, if France would like the PLAN to participate, then they need to drop the, "French-led," part. Europe is impacted by the blockade much more than China, so if the conflict drags on then the incentives to act increases for European nations. If the Europeans are too cowardly to act, then so be it, let the economies shrivel even further.

That still takes time and the collapse of global markets would affect China as well. A worldwide recession or depression is not conducive to China's growth and imports.

Well, dual circulation can be put to the test. And not all sectors would be impacted equally, ie demand for EVs and renewables would grow, and these are the actual sectors most prioritized by Beijing. Of course, domestic demand and EVs/renewables cannot fully offset the economic impact, but China will still come out ahead relative to almost every other nation.

 

[Puss in Boots]

Are you dumb? None of the measures you listed address the immediate economic problem of oil and gas being interdicted.

RMB settlement with the Middle East doesn't do shit if boats cannot sail through the Hormuz.

Sending weapons to indirectly kill American sailors is MORE escalatory than a defensive escort.

Cutting off rare earths to sabotage American industry is MORE escalatory than proving their blockade is theater.

Name the fucking risks in sending an escort. WW3 is not gonna happen when the US is already desperately looking for an off ramp with IRAN.

Isn't deterrence itself a form of provocation?
What exactly do you consider deterrence to be?
Do you see deterrence as just a show?

Holding a gun to someone's head and telling them to get lost—that's called deterrence
Waving a gun without a magazine in front of someone is called being a clown.

 

[GZDRefugee]

Isn't deterrence itself a form of provocation?
What exactly do you consider deterrence to be?
Do you see deterrence as just a show?

Oh so now restoration of stability is somehow provocative. Is a return to the status quo where heads of state didn't get assassinated by missile somehow a BAD thing?

You cannot be serious. Are you arguing for the love of the game?

 

[Puss in Boots]

Oh so now restoration of stability is somehow provocative. Is a return to the status quo where heads of state didn't get assassinated by missile somehow a BAD thing?

You cannot be serious. Are you arguing for the love of the game?

What exactly are you trying to say?

You talked about deterrence all day, but in the end you're afraid of scaring people.

It seems you really treat deterrence as a show; to outsiders, your deterrence tactics look like a clownish performance.

 

[bebops]

This is on the front page of CNN. Houthis is difficult to be defeated by just aerial bombing or naval blockade. However, if the Houthis decided to blockade the other strait, I think the US will send ground invasion into Yemen to clean out the Houthis. I am not sure if Iran had thought this through. US ground invasion might have great difficulty in Iran but might not be for Yemen though.

Iran’s military threatens Red Sea shipping if US blockade continues​

 

[FriedRiceNSpice]

It seems you really treat deterrence as a show; to outsiders, your deterrence tactics look like a clownish performance.

Or in other words, Trumpish performance.