2026 Iran War Strategy and Analysis

[Stealthflanker]

I just don't quite understand how Iran allowed them to slip in so easily. Why don't they have drone teams or at least some soldiers with MANPADS hidden in scattered positions across the border areas? There would be almost no way for the U.S. to neutralize them or flush them out. An operation like this done by Russia in Ukraine would almost immediately end in the destruction of every one of their planes and helicopters by FPV drones and MANPADS.

Because Iran itself is Big and there always shortage of men to cover them all. trying to cover everything will basically stretch them thin. Also US running active attempt in jamming or denial of Iran communication as well as early warning radars so, response could be late.

 

[manqiangrexue]

US statements isn't fact are they, infact they have a very consistent record of lying about loses throughout this war before being exposed, to the point they now have to tell PlanetLabs to stop releasing sat photos...
But per your own logic, if US actually succeed how long do you reckon we need to wait for US to release photo / video evidence of these pilots getting recovered?

In the real world, the facts are:
1 - Iran found an ejection seat right away
2 - Pilots who ejected at the same time don't drift hundreds of miles apart.
3 - Pilots can only escape on foot, in open terrain without foliage.
4 - It's extremely rare for pilots to become seriously injured when ejecting.

So you need to explain
1 - how US recovered the first pilot right away but not the second
2 - how US lose so many aircraft at low altitude in a country without top down fighters or AWACs and only VLOS IR missiles.
3 - how the WSO got seriously wounded

You're the one twisting yourself into a pretzel trying to maintain an American official narrative that has as many plot holes as the 30 hour laundry fire.

I like your version better than America's but do we know that the pilots ejected at the same time? Could the F-15 have been struck, the second officer immediately ejected and fucked off, but the pilot stayed to attempt to regain control for a minute before realizing it was a lost cause, then he ejected after the jet glided for a bit?

 

[vincent]

I just don't quite understand how Iran allowed them to slip in so easily. Why don't they have drone teams or at least some soldiers with MANPADS hidden in scattered positions across the border areas? There would be almost no way for the U.S. to neutralize them or flush them out. An operation like this done by Russia in Ukraine would almost immediately end in the destruction of every one of their planes and helicopters by FPV drones and MANPADS.

Are you gonna volunteer to camp out in the middle of nowhere, no fire to warm you and have to hide i some hole, and stay up constantly to watch for planes that can fly by in a few minutes?

If you are an IRGC official, how many teams you need to send camping and to support?

 

[RedMetalSeadramon]

I just don't quite understand how Iran allowed them to slip in so easily. Why don't they have drone teams or at least some soldiers with MANPADS hidden in scattered positions across the border areas? There would be almost no way for the U.S. to neutralize them or flush them out. An operation like this done by Russia in Ukraine would almost immediately end in the destruction of every one of their planes and helicopters by FPV drones and MANPADS.

Americans moved quickly. Whole thing was about 36 hours. Fill the area with drones, the lack of cover in an arid environment means local militia would be attacked in the open. Coordinated response is too slow for Iranians, if this took 72 hours, a couple extra ADs would have shown up, a single BM21 would have wrecked/locked down the landing site and would have probably forced additional of casualties.

How did both C130 suffered from malfunction.

Rough landing might have wrecked landing gear and prevented take off, but they probably didnt. Probably cant turn the plane around or ground not suitable for takeoff at the acceptable speed/altitudes to avoid AD.

 

[delfer]

Are you gonna volunteer to camp out in the middle of nowhere, no fire to warm you and have to hide i some hole, and stay up constantly to watch for planes that can fly by in a few minutes?

If you are an IRGC official, how many teams you need to send camping and to support?

When it comes to defending your nation against aggressive, bold invaders like the Americans, sacrifices have to be made. If Iran hesitated to do it before this whole debacle, I hope they'll put some forces there now.

 

[iewgnem]

I like your version better than America's but do we know that the pilots ejected at the same time? Could the F-15 have been struck, the second officer immediately ejected and fucked off, but the pilot stayed to attempt to regain control for a minute before realizing it was a lost cause, then he ejected after the jet glided for a bit?

1. I doubt either of the pilots would be eager to eject and land inside Iran if they thought they had any chance to make it out, so the decision to eject implies significant damage.
2. There need to be a massive discrepancy between the pilot and WSO's assessment of their situation for one choose to eject into Iran and the other feel the aircraft could be saved
3. They were deep inside Iran, the aircraft has to have been in very good shape for the pilot to think they had a chance, which makes WSO's decision to eject alone unlikely
4. Default ejection mode is set to both on any pull for obvious reaction time reasons, they need to change mode after being hit to eject separately
5. After ejection the cockpit would be exposed and depressurized making it even more difficult to fly a damaged aircraft, so it would require extraordinary circumstances for the pilots to choose to switch mode to individual ejection then eject separately.

There is basically no reason to believe the pilots ejected separately except to try to make sense of American claims, which as we know has consistently been proven to be lies throughout this war.

 

[iewgnem]

I just don't quite understand how Iran allowed them to slip in so easily. Why don't they have drone teams or at least some soldiers with MANPADS hidden in scattered positions across the border areas? There would be almost no way for the U.S. to neutralize them or flush them out. An operation like this done by Russia in Ukraine would almost immediately end in the destruction of every one of their planes and helicopters by FPV drones and MANPADS.

Except Iran didn't allow them to slip in? It's extremely difficult and unlikely for a country without top down aerial radars and only ground based VLOS missiles to just randomly hit so many aircraft flying at low altitude, especially considering Iran is the size of western Europe.

Iran knew they were coming and hit them as they went in, simple as that.

Also Russia does this all the time in Ukraine to much less fanfair.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

the fk? in what kind of alternate reality did that happen?
if people want to write fanfics then that is fine but a disclaimer should be written that this is just a fanfic not actual news.
rather than trying to twist oneself into a pretzel to try explain the events. it is more accurate to just look at the facts that we have. if this fanfic really was true. then Iran would have released some pics now after the US says they rescued the pilot to show he is dead.

Why don't they show the pilots alive and talking to the media then?

They gave rescued Jessica Lynch in Iraq an interview immediately and showed her being carried on hospital stretchers on April 1, 2003, the exact day of her rescue. On April 2, 2003, within 24 hours of her rescue, the US military released a video of her.

 

[manqiangrexue]

some claim it was a us psyops to make the Iranians think the guy was already capture so they do not search as intensely

USA runs psyops to make Iran think both the guys are rescued so they can stop looking while the US tries to rescue them.

Meanwhile, Iran runs psyops to make the US think they were captured to stop the US from trying to rescue them while Iran hunts for them.

The 2 guys: dead in a ditch 3 days ago, covered in sand.

 

[FriedRiceNSpice]

When it comes to defending your nation against aggressive, bold invaders like the Americans, sacrifices have to be made. If Iran hesitated to do it before this whole debacle, I hope they'll put some forces there now.

Which means dedicating military assets to missions that are likely to actually effect military outcomes in a way beneficial to Irans, which does not include searching for downed American pilots in the wilderness.