Is anybody else a little surprised about the operational tempo the US has been able to maintain during the opening phases of the Iran War? We've been seeing reports on poor availability and maintenance rates of US Air Force and Navy aircraft for years now, but first couple of weeks of this war have shown strike rates on par with the Gulf War... According to CENTCOM, over 5,000 targets have been struck as of March 12. That averages out to roughly 500 strikes per day.
Are we going to see a rapid drop off as airframe attrition comes into play or do you think the issues with airframe availability and maintenance issues might have been overblown?
Nah, not really. March 12 report would likely refer to targets hit up to and including March 11, so 12 days in total for 5000 targets. 417 per day, on average. US had close to 300 tactical combat aircraft in the ME. Given that Gulf countries have been doing most of the defensive missions, majority of those US planes were free to actually fly over Iran. Plausibly 250+.
All those planes were flown into the theater to be ready for combat, meaning they did their big maintenance checks and should be able to do daily missions for weeks. Even so, US is still flying in a small number of planes into ME, possibly for airframe replacements. USAF doesn't really need to brake apart existing units as it's customary to send airframes out of a unit to deep maintenance and have that unit receive other airframes. That's done even during peacetime, so for a war like this, it'd be very normal for units to deploy only with the most ready airframes.
We don't really know number of sorties per plane per day, but it should concievably still be around 1, for the first few weeks, even with the starting roster of airframes. Possibly initial day or two had some airframes doing even 2 sorties per day. Not all sorties would result in iranian targets hit, of course. But given that Israel already dealt with a lot of Iranian AD back in 2025, it's not implausible that most US missions have indeed been ground strike ones. Some targets might've required multiple weapons but who knows how USAF is really counting that. It could well be that they equate a target with weapon used. If so, it wouldn't be surprising if average number of targets/weapons per sortie is 2-4 for fighter jets. Even if just half of the 250 jets were doing strike missions per day, that's something like 125 times 3 targets/weapons per day, so 350 to 400 per day.
It could've easily been fewer though because all that doesn't include bomber missions, of which there have been at least 20, with 2-4 bombers each and probably 16-24 weapons each per bomber. That's theoretically 1200 bombs/weapons on possibly as many targets just from bombers. Plus none of that includes tomahawks, a few hundred of which have likely be fired off on day 1. Nor does it include PrSM missiles. Possibly again tens of which might've been fired so far. Nor does it include Lucas drones, again possibly a few hundred fired so far. Not does it include possible Hellfire missiles fired from Reapers. CENTCOM footage of targets hit includes some very, very small explosions, which could've been done by Hellfire sized weapon warheads.
So, no, operational tempo doesn't surprise me so far. If anything, one might've expected even more targets hit in the given timeframe, given all the hardware that US brought in.