PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

[douglaxd]

I want everyone to know that sufficiently powerful non-nuclear EMP weapons do not exist whenever someone mentions using EMP to destroy electronic equipment on the battlefield.

Full-Spectrum Barrage Jamming is just an SF. You need something like a Carrington event to do that.

CHAMP, HiJENKS?

 

[AndrewS]

I know historically ROCMND like to compare themselves to Israel, so for them changing their own mindset and thinking of themself as the Iran would be a big leap and frankly I don't think it will happen so they won't learn anything from this war. But suppose we assume they are pragmatic for a change and actually goes for mosaic warfare - it is after all also the direction US wants to push them in.

So if they become more IRGC-like, how would PLA deal with flying mopeds and all the other innovations seen in Ukraine? For organic SHORAD that's part of a combined arms brigade I don't think we have to worry, they are already on the case. Recall in last year's parade this vehicle the FK-3000 was demonstrated:

View attachment 171591
Instead of this one:

View attachment 171592
Type 625.

Guancha guys talked about this afterwards and they said this is no coincidence. FK-3000 is starting to phase out Type 625 despite it being pretty new precisely because of what they are seeing in Ukraine. FK-3000 with its 35mm cannon can fire AHEAD rounds and being able to carry a huge number of small missiles vs four MANPAD missiles are all so that FK-3000 is better at dealing with small targets like FPV, Lancet, Switchblade etc. So PLA is certainly learning the lessons from Ukraine when it comes to SHORAD.

Question that I don't know the answer to is weather there's preparation done yet for defending fixed installations against small drone targets like Geran-2/Shahed 136/LUCAS/Chien Hsiang, and potentially large swarms of them at a time.

It could very well be that PLA has thought about this and done the work already, and some point in the future when we see a CCTV segments on some kind of installation we see in the carpark two LY-1 lasers parked and connected to EV fast chargers.

Given that the Chinese Air Force would have continuous AWACs coverage over all of Taiwan, they should be able to detect the launch of any opposing drones and then track them continuously.

The Chinese military should also be able to flood the airspace over Taiwan with its own drone swarms continuosly, so it won't be possible for Taiwan to launch large swarms.

And to counter any drones that are launched, helicopters with $20K APKWS rockets seem to be a workable solution for slower targets, and I see an Apache can carry 76 APKWS rockets at a time.

EDIT. I also notice F-16s are now flying with 42 APKWS rockets as well

 

[Tessier2501]

CHAMP, HiJENKS?

Microwave is not EMP. You can make non-nuc EMPs by blowing off an energized coil, but I wouldn't call it powerful enough.

 

[AndrewS]

The problem for Taiwan is that China has SRBMs and drones too. For Iran, the heavy hitters are the MRBMs, with Shaheds acting mostly as distraction and strikes on undefended targets.

The other problem is that US only has high altitude superiority over Iran, not low altitude. China won't have this problem since Taiwan bought mostly US radar based air defense for high altitude threats. They didn't prepare for low altitude survival with IR/TV guided SAMs.

Even if Taiwan bought more smaller, more survivable, low-altitude SAMs, it doesn't help.

China should be able to flood Taiwanese airspace with many more drones, aircraft and missiles.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Even if Taiwan bought more smaller, more survivable, low-altitude SAMs, it doesn't help.

China should be able to flood Taiwanese airspace with many more drones, aircraft and missiles.

Nothing they buy would actually work, but they can have various levels of effect before going down. The current inventory is pointing towards having near 0 effect.

 

[plawolf]

It’s ridiculous to compare Ukraine or Iran to Taiwan. Taiwan doesn’t have the geographical size of either and is an island far from all possible sources of supply.

China is the world’s factory. Chinese industrial output makes Iran feel like a garage operation in both scale and sophistication. If needs be, China can make more drones and missiles than Taiwan can make bullets.

If the proverbial balloon goes up, the PLA alpha strike alone could potentially end the fight with its opening salvo given how slowly RoC forces gets out of bed.

It’s no exaggeration to say that the PLA can have every square km of the island covered by multiple UCAVs 24/7 with plenty of mobile reserves and manned jets as QRF that any ambushes against those drones will be quickly engaged by overwhelming might in quick order that in a war of attrition, the PLA will trade extremely favourably using unmanned platforms against manned assets on the ground.

Any sort of military movement or massing is highly likely to draw down near immediate precision strikes.

To be frank, the outcome of the war is already beyond doubt. The only question is the cost.

 

[AssassinsMace]

If the US is already running out of missiles just on Iran, what does it say about the US’s allies in Asia who always brag about the American missiles they have? Iran destroyed what I read was a billion dollar radar system with one of its Shaheed drones. Taiwan bought a billion dollar radar system from the US… I read also that there were huge anti-American protests going on in the Philippines. Every US ally in Asia should be worried about how it will be so easy to overwhelm them.

 

[AndrewS]

Well Iran has had no trouble hitting multiple US regional airbases, destroying multiple static radar and EW sites and obliterating a US navy facility in Bahrain. This is all Iran not even trying to go at the US forces themselves, just the peripheral tools used by the empire.

Iran is unable to do much more because US military action against Iran is launched out of bases and carriers well outside the reach of effective Iranian fire. They have some token pieces of equipment that theoretically have those ranges but have them in terribly small numbers and questionable effectiveness, particularly when they have nothing else to back up those attacks like ... an airforce of navy of substance and modernity. Yet those drones and ballistic missiles were exceptionally effective at neutering US equipment within their effective ranges and US air defenses have not been able to stop drones and ballistic missiles.

China is about the economic, industrial, productive and military weight of 1000 Irans. Technology is not on such a single dimension but Iran the nation has close to no technology of merit that's beyond 1990s except for a few niche fields. Yet they have been the only force in modern history to beat the US senseless wherever they are within reach on the ground. Iran unfortunately does not have air power to counter the US and Israel in the air and its air defenses are only useful at making operations for Israel and US a little harder and losing some UAVs once in a while.

China being the equivalent of 1000 Irans is too much.
On terms of manufacturing and GDP, it's like 50-60x.

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I think a better comparison would be with the USA.

In terms of overall manufacturing output, the UN figures show China being twice the size of the USA.
And from the latest price surveys in China, it does look like actual economic output is also twice the size.

 

[sometimesnaive]

Taiwan bought a billion dollar radar system from the US

PAVE PAWS stands zero chance, neither does FPS-117. Both seem like stationary DD form 200s, its frankly comical. TPS-117/TPS-77/78 have at least the option of maneuver but nothing's stopping them from becoming paperwork in the first wave of strikes. I feel these systems provide some feeling of safety.

 

[latenlazy]

PAVE PAWS stands zero chance, neither does FPS-117. Both seem like stationary DD form 200s, its frankly comical. TPS-117/TPS-77/78 have at least the option of maneuver but nothing's stopping them from becoming paperwork in the first wave of strikes. I feel these systems provide some feeling of safety.

Even if PAVE PAWS were still standing the compressed warning lead times given the short travel distances for standoff munitions involved basically make it useless heh.