China's AI Semiconductor Self-Sufficiency in 2028 is Expected
Morgan Stanley, a securities firm, predicted that China will have enough artificial intelligence (AI) semiconductor production capabilities to meet its core demand in the country from 2028.
According to Hong Kong investment magazine AAStox on the 12th, Morgan Stanley released a report and reported, "China is making significant progress in establishing a self-sufficiency system for artificial intelligence graphics processing units (GPUs)."
Morgan Stanley evaluated that China has made great progress in acquiring foundry production lines and equipment necessary for artificial intelligence semiconductor manufacturing with its own capabilities over the past year under the leadership of the government.
Some predict that by 2028, it will secure enough mass production capacity to meet its core domestic demand.
This means that the need for China to rely on overseas foundry companies or import equipment is greatly reduced.
Morgan Stanley assessed that Chinese semiconductor companies quickly paid off in the early stages thanks to the government's support policy.
Another factor contributing to strengthening the competitiveness of Chinese companies is that cost competitiveness is becoming more important than semiconductor performance in the field of artificial intelligence reasoning.
This is because artificial intelligence semiconductors of Chinese companies are performing less than products of overseas competitors such as Nvidia and AMD, but are superior in terms of cost and power efficiency.
Morgan Stanley said, "China's strategy to overcome its technological weakness by expanding the scale of semiconductor production is leading to steady results," adding, "The distribution of locally developed GPUs has the potential to lead to overseas exports."
However, some predicted that if Chinese companies have difficulty maintaining their competitiveness, semiconductor companies could eventually suffer from oversupply and restructuring.
Morgan Stanley predicted that China's artificial intelligence semiconductor market will reach 67 billion U.S. dollars by 2030. This means that the market will grow at an annual average of 23 percent from 2024.
Some predict that China's self-sufficiency in artificial intelligence semiconductors will hit 76% by 2030.
Morgan Stanley added that based on this, it maintains an optimistic view on Chinese big tech companies investing in SMIC, Naura, and semiconductor sectors.