2026 Israel - Iranian conflict [TEMP LOCKED]

[Michael90]

go ahead and let them.

Turkey and Saudi Arabia have 0 nuclear power plants. Neither of them have enrichment capabilities. They can neither breed fuel (Pu) nor refine fuel (U). To cripple them is as easy as NPT sanctions from the US. Neither of them have a complete industrial supply chain like Iran does, not even to the degree of 1960's China.

Dude who told you they don’t have nuclear power plants? Turkey is currently building hers with Russian and they are doing so freely under no restrictions/sanctions (shows again they played their cards right unlike Iran ).

and who told you they can’t acquire one ? You think Pakistan can do so out of urgent threat/necessity but Turkey and KSA can’t? lol. Seriously ? People shouldn’t confuse necessity with incapability . If Pakistan didn’t faced a nuclear threat from India, Pakistan would have never even thought of a nuclear program ever. That wouldn’t have meant they are incapable of ever building or acquiring one . Two different things .the hell even Libya and South Africa had a nuclear weapons program(which they had to give up eventually due to pressure and a diplomatic deal, so they are better than Turkey and KSA I guess. lol).
South a Korea and Japan can acquire nukes in less than a year but they don’t have one. Doesn’t means they are incapable of doing so.
Differentiate between the 2 please .
Iran acquiring nukes will 100% lead to nuclear proliferation in the region . The other regional powers will feel threatened as well . Iran is not the only power in the region dude .

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Dude who told you they don’t have nuclear power plants? Turkey is currently building hers with Russian and they are doing so freely under no restrictions/sanctions (shows again they played their cards right unlike Iran ).

and who told you they can’t acquire one ? You think Pakistan can do so out of urgent threat/necessity but Turkey and KSA can’t? lol. Seriously ? People shouldn’t confuse necessity with incapability . If Pakistan didn’t faced a nuclear threat from India, Pakistan would have never even thought of a nuclear program ever. That wouldn’t have meant they are incapable of ever building or acquiring one . Two different things .the hell even Libya and South Africa had a nuclear weapons program(which they had to give up eventually due to pressure and a diplomatic deal, so they are better than Turkey and KSA I guess. lol).
South a Korea and Japan can acquire nukes in less than a year but they don’t have one. Doesn’t means they are incapable of doing so.
Differentiate between the 2 please .
Iran acquiring nukes will 100% lead to nuclear proliferation in the region . The other regional powers will feel threatened as well . Iran is not the only power in the region dude .

Pakistan and India did it under sanctions. And they suffered immensely for it.

KSA isn't even food independent. Sanctions would wreck it. Turkey is building pressurized water reactors. Not breeders. And it's a Russian design, not domestic.

The big question for KSA and Turkey is always - does the US allow it? You know the answer to that yourself. It's not a credible threat. They freaked the fuck out about even Poland.

South Korea and Japan don't get anything within 1 year because China can preemptively prevent them from getting one. They don't have the fossil fuel reserves or the ABM capabilities to test China. China already has a legal justification under the Enemy States doctrine of the UN Charter.

 

[FriedButter]

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Iran Outlines Three-Step Plan for Ceasefire and Political Dialogue, Urges Global Support​

Iran’s Ambassador to China Fazli held a press briefing in Beijing on March 9, outlining Iran’s stance on the current crisis and diplomatic strategy:

Under the new Supreme Leader, Iran supports a “three-step” approach proposed by senior officials to ease tensions and seek a political solution.

Step 1: End the war and achieve a ceasefire, requiring the US and Israel to immediately halt all military attacks.

Step 2: Return to negotiations, which is difficult due to lack of trust in the US, and nearly impossible without active intervention from major powers and the UN Security Council.

Step 3: All nations should unite to resist unilateralism and promote multilateralism.

Fazli added that Iran is willing to resume dialogue once these principles are fully respected and implemented.

 

[manqiangrexue]

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1: No shit, that's what a ceasefire is.
2: Still talking about negotiating, eh? Tsk tsk, can't teach this old dog new trick. Hope he made that shit up himself and the IRGC wants nothing to do with it.
3: WTF does that even mean in this context?

Overall rating: Sounds retarded

 

[horse]

The West analysts keep predicting how many launchers are left or destroyed. I think that is a wrong way to look at this.

Scott Ritter, the former UN weapons inspector, and ex-Marine and assessment officer in the US military, had a story about such a topic.

During the Gulf war with Saddam Hussien, Iraq had 19 Scud launchers which they used to fire missiles at Israel. The number of Scud launchers claimed to been destroy from the war reporting was 39 of them.

That is the American way of war and propaganda.

Just like the body count in the latter parts of the Vietnam War. Got to build up those numbers.

 

[vincent]

one thing i have not seen discussed is how will iran maintain revenue while equally impeded from exporting oil?

 

[plawolf]

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View attachment 171266
Iranian AD are not completely absent like it’s been painted. It's averaging like 1 reaper a day.

I think Iranian AD has gone full guerrilla mode. They are not meant to provide systematic defences against enemy attacks as traditional AD would, instead it looks like they are just in pure hunter-killer mode aiming to hit any air targets they can.

I suspect that they are operating purely passively for the most part, relying on thermals for passive detection and also guidance for their interceptor missiles.

It’s a largely luck based approach that can be boosted with goo geography knowledge and educated guesswork, but it will be incredibly resilient to traditional SEAD and DEAD tactics while also given Iran a solid chance to shoot down even stealth fighters like the F35.

The key limitation to this tactic seems to be the missiles themselves, which appear relatively slow speed, probably owning to limitations in sensor and/or processor capabilities.

This means that MAWS is of utmost importance, as that’s the only warning fighter pilots are liable to get other than chance eyeball spots.

If MAWS spots the incoming missiles, the fighters should be able to easily escape engagement due to the slow speed of the missiles, but fighters without MAWS will be especially vulnerable in this threat environment. So low to minimal chance against F35s, but much better odds against F15s.

 

[Minm]

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So he's asking for China to be involved in the negotiations rather than mediation by Oman?

Going back to negotiations later is unavoidable, but Iran should have a much better position from which to negotiate now

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

I think Iranian AD has gone full guerrilla mode. They are not meant to provide systematic defences against enemy attacks as traditional AD would, instead it looks like they are just in pure hunter-killer mode aiming to hit any air targets they can.

I suspect that they are operating purely passively for the most part, relying on thermals for passive detection and also guidance for their interceptor missiles.

It’s a largely luck based approach that can be boosted with goo geography knowledge and educated guesswork, but it will be incredibly resilient to traditional SEAD and DEAD tactics while also given Iran a solid chance to shoot down even stealth fighters like the F35.

The key limitation to this tactic seems to be the missiles themselves, which appear relatively slow speed, probably owning to limitations in sensor and/or processor capabilities.

This means that MAWS is of utmost importance, as that’s the only warning fighter pilots are liable to get other than chance eyeball spots.

If MAWS spots the incoming missiles, the fighters should be able to easily escape engagement due to the slow speed of the missiles, but fighters without MAWS will be especially vulnerable in this threat environment. So low to minimal chance against F35s, but much better odds against F15s.

this approach isn't great for anti high altitude, but it is good for hitting helicopters, drones and CAS assets. as long as you can do that, it makes a ground invasion nearly impossible.

 

[Gloire_bb]

I think Iranian AD has gone full guerrilla mode. They are not meant to provide systematic defences against enemy attacks as traditional AD would, instead it looks like they are just in pure hunter-killer mode aiming to hit any air targets they can.

They were always meant to; entire IRGC ADF force is ambush force. The problem is failure to get manned aircraft (target at which they spent majority of their effort through 2010s and 2020s) - yes, reaper attrition was unsustainable against Yemen (a country not worth anything), Iran is one hell of a prize.
I.e. there will be eventual tactical consequences for attrition of reaper fleet, but it isn't a political show stopper.
Basically, to really make US consider, they should be bringing down manned aircraft at a tempo they're managing reapers.

This, potentially with 1-2 butchered SAR operations, would've ensured they aren't worth to crack again. Otherwise it's mostly just money. Gulf will compensate all American fiscal losses just by rearming after war.