2026 Israel - Iranian conflict [TEMP LOCKED]

Will Iran-Israel conflict start again?


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latenlazy

Brigadier
Power is out in some parts of tel-aviv, a powerstation was hit via clusters.

Iran sent 5 waves towards israel under 1 hour, almost double
Do we have a sense for many missiles they fired in total. It’d be useful to get a sense for what Iran’s current rate of attack looks like. I suspect recovery of strike capacity since last week but it’d be nice to know by how much with a quantifiable figure, even if a rough one.
 
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ENTED64

Junior Member
Registered Member
You're probably right but accumulated risk factors are pretty important to the most risk-adverse industry in the world. Two wars in under a year? That's like insurance considering whether or not to insure a guy who had two DUI's in under a year. At a certain point, the potential downside is not worth the revenue from the venture.

The US government has said that they are issuing $20B of insurance themselves. It would be interesting to see a tanker get hit and how the USG actually reacts and if there is any friction with the pay-out or not. Alongside that, it would be interesting to see whether or not treasury yields are affected. Yes, I know that they are likely managed by different departments, but in a sense, government issued insurance is also backed by the full creditworthiness of the USG, so all intertwined.
The point is that the insurance companies can cancel coverage when the situation spirals out of control like they did for this war. So if a ceasefire is established and holds for a while it is much more likely they will start offering insurance subject to cancellation if the war starts up again than simply refusing all insurance there forever. That insurance might be priced significantly higher but the insurance companies will probably calculate that it is unlikely Iran goes crazy and suddenly without any warning sinks a dozen tankers on a random day or something. This is insurance, their whole business is the pricing of uncertain risks, so sure that scenario is possible but it seems pretty unlikely and the reality is they already went through this after the 12 day war and they weren't burned then.
 

Michael90

Senior Member
Registered Member
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people thinking this is too much have no idea how huge the production was during ww2 and cold war. Today's production of weapons on both west and east nothing compared to the past. today's military spending percentage is nothing compared to the past.

The entire world is playing on easy mode when it comes to military power and spending. This is the result of US unipolar moment. I think slowly this will change all over the world
Yes but those were unordinary and exceptional times . That can’t be held as a normal mode of things , neither is it sustainable as such. Germany for example can match and even surpass Russias military production if they really decided to go on beast mode. But today’s world is different. I agree that the US international world order actually made countries to tone down on military field and focus more on economic development. But we should make no mistake as well, there are countries who can more than triple and even quadruple their current military production if pushed against the wall. We haven’t gotten to that point yet.
 

solarz

Brigadier
Sad to say this, but Iran brought this current conflict on itself. Had it responded as forcefully as it currently is responding to the assassination of Suleimani or to the 12 day war last year, Trump would not have ordered the go-ahead on the military option. It's clear that Trump mistook Iran's previous restraint for weakness. Many on here have said this at the time, and the current conflict is only further proving the point.
 

tamsen_ikard

Captain
Registered Member
Yes but those were unordinary and exceptional times . That can’t be held as a normal mode of things , neither is it sustainable as such. Germany for example can match and even surpass Russias military production if they really decided to go on beast mode. But today’s world is different. I agree that the US international world order actually made countries to tone down on military field and focus more on economic development. But we should make no mistake as well, there are countries who can more than triple and even quadruple their current military production if pushed against the wall. We haven’t gotten to that point yet.
Nope, over the course of history, warfare was constant, military spending was always atleast 10% of GDP and massive destruction of entire nations and massive genocide of entire people was common. The last few decades was the anomaly cause no country has ever attained the level of dominance over the whole world that US had after cold war. This caused unprecendented level of peace cause everyone bowed down to US.

Now times are going back to normal.
 

Serb

Senior Member
Registered Member
Yes but those were unordinary and exceptional times . That can’t be held as a normal mode of things , neither is it sustainable as such. Germany for example can match and even surpass Russias military production if they really decided to go on beast mode. But today’s world is different. I agree that the US international world order actually made countries to tone down on military field and focus more on economic development. But we should make no mistake as well, there are countries who can more than triple and even quadruple their current military production if pushed against the wall. We haven’t gotten to that point yet.

The more you post, the more I am sure that you are living in your own alternate universe. How can countries with governments with 10-20% support ratings "triple or quadruple" their military production, shifting the resources from the civil economy, without a mass revolt right away?

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Michael90

Senior Member
Registered Member
Lmao, Hezbollah is literally dealing the historic blows to "Israel" in real time now.
I remember you were saying the same thing during Syria conflict until the last minute Assad fell . lol
Same with Hezbollah at the start of the first war a year ago, but we saw the result of how Hezbollah has been greatly weakened since then . I remember how people were claiming how invincible Hezbollah was and how they had thousands of missiles ready to go at Israel and how they can raze Israel to the ground if ISEAEL dared attack them. Same with Iran , in fact I can’t count the number of times I heard people saying how great and powerful Iran was and how Israel and the US will never dare touch Irans territory, since if they ever dared then Iran has tens of thousands of ballistic missiles and technology ready to level to the ground Israel an US military forces . lol Old boy, how they were proven wrong . That’s the thing with propaganda , it makes people to start believing in fallacies and make them make strategic mistakes
 
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FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
I remember you were saying the same thing during Syria conflict until the last minute Assad fell . lol
Same with Hezbollah at the start of the first war a year ago, but we saw the result of how Hezbollah has been greatly weakened since then . I remember how people were claiming how invincible Hezbollah was and how they had thousands of missiles ready to go at Israel and how they can raze Israel to the ground if ISEAEL dared attack them. Same with Iran , in fact I can’t count thy number of times I heard people saying how great annd powerful Iran was and how Israel and the US will never dare touch Irans territory, since if they ever dared then Iran has tens of thousands of ballistic misled ready to level to the ground Israel an US military forces . lol Old boy, how they were proven wrong . That’s the thing with propaganda , it makes people to start believing in fallacies and make them make strategic mistakes
How's THAAD and PAVE PAWS doing?
 

dingyibvs

Senior Member
Keep in mind that insurers can make a killing here by jacking up rates. They’re probably just busy trying to model what expected losses look like so they can figure out what to charge for a wartime product. Shipping companies won’t have much choice to go into debt and eat the losses hoping to make it up long term once the war passes, because the alternative is 0 revenues and certain death. Eventually that cost is going to be passed on down the chain until it shows up as inflation for consumers.

The cost will immediately be passed on to consumers, the shipping companies WI make a killing as well. Unlike the Bab-el-Mandeb, you can't go around Hormuz, so the only realistic way to truly shut it down is by hitting all ships (or at least all ships of a specific type, e.g. VLCCs). The risk can't just be elevated, it needs to be unacceptable regardless of any realistic sum of money.
 
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