I saw something but don’t know if it’s true.
2026 Israel - Iranian conflict [TEMP LOCKED]
- Thread starter doggydogdo
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I've seen rumors power is out in some suburb areas of Israel.
So Trumptard just sped run the coming collapse of the American empire to replace Khameni with Khameni.
I think the point of inflection has already been passed at this point. Let's say there is some kind of shaky ceasefire negotiated. Do you think that even 6 months into a ceasefire, insurance companies will insure tankers going through the strait? If one gets hit, it's unlikely the insurance company even has the ability to pay out. Not to mention, if they do, premiums will be through the roof going forward so shippers will have to either take on the full risk themselves and ship without insurance or they'll divest from this route entirely, because it won't be financially feasible.
They replaced Taliban with taliban after spending $ 3trillion.
Israel had a mass-cas event, one of the shelters got hit directly with the missile.
So far Iran is saying they will be NO ceasefire, there will end to 'war' Aka you will retreat from the region, lift sanctions all that.
They said they are being contact by trump admin for ceasefire
The cluster warheads are doing work I think.
Amazing counter value weapon compared to the rest of the missiles in Iran's arsenal since they're giving up intercepting these past the boost stage.
If Iran can fire a couple per day targeting Israeli substations or Ben Gurion airport, that's a lot of cumulative damage and Israel isn't as prepared for this as Ukraine. Obviously, you'll only want to really cross this line if your own infrastructure is being targeted...
I think if a ceasefire is actually negotiated and holds up (a big if to say the least) then insurance companies will return and shipping will go back to something resembling normal. The proof of this is obvious, it's what happened after the 12 day war last year. As for premiums, the insurance companies aren't idiots, they can cancel coverage for when large scale war breaks out, they're not forcibly wedded to old contracts. That's exactly what happened this time.
You're probably right but accumulated risk factors are pretty important to the most risk-adverse industry in the world. Two wars in under a year? That's like insurance considering whether or not to insure a guy who had two DUI's in under a year. At a certain point, the potential downside is not worth the revenue from the venture.
The US government has said that they are issuing $20B of insurance themselves. It would be interesting to see a tanker get hit and how the USG actually reacts and if there is any friction with the pay-out or not. Alongside that, it would be interesting to see whether or not treasury yields are affected. Yes, I know that they are likely managed by different departments, but in a sense, government issued insurance is also backed by the full creditworthiness of the USG, so all intertwined.
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Power is out in some parts of tel-aviv, a powerstation was hit via clusters.
Iran sent 5 waves towards israel under 1 hour, almost double
Keep in mind that insurers can make a killing here by jacking up rates. They’re probably just busy trying to model what expected losses look like so they can figure out what to charge for a wartime product. Shipping companies won’t have much choice but to go into debt and eat the losses hoping to make it up long term once the war passes, because the alternative is 0 revenues and certain death. Eventually that cost is going to be passed on down the chain until it shows up as inflation for consumers.
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