2026 Israel - Iranian conflict [TEMP LOCKED]

[Faisal Iqbal]

Then the Gulf state should do more to prove they serious. Do they think their activities will escaped the mysterious satellites and HUMINT?

How does UAE convince Iranians that their attacks are hurting them and they should widen their gaze and paint the bullseye to somewhere else? May be MBZ should lie down and play dead (but he would still resemble more like camel than a dog).

 

[phrozenflame]

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India relayed location of the unarmed IR ship that they had invited for excercises to Israel.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Well, when VKS could bomb inner Ukraine ~at will(first week of its war) - it did, and by doing so had massively larger strike bandwidth.
Now Russian strike into Ukraine is LACM/TBM salvo every week or so (10-20 missiles, i.e. 500 kg bombs; of which certain proportion hit their targets). It's also swarms of shaheds - which are 50-100kg bombs and are more vulnerable to EW.

By comparison, early in the war, Russia averaged couple hundred strikes sorties into Ukraine, with targets served either with unguided bomb salvos, or by tactical guided weapons. I.e. every single day, VKS could deliver more weight inside Ukraine, to more important targets, than now several stand off attacks do.

Russia operating outside of inner Ukrainian airspace is not a matter of choice, it's a neccesity; if it could do so without unsustainable attrition(loss to replenishment ratio) and political damage(captured/mutilated pilots), it would've done so.

US/IS haven't lost manned aircraft over Iran at this point, not a single one. And even if they will, at this point it's clear it's sustainable rate of losses. Torturing Russian pilots was more or less a safe bet in 2022 for Ukraine: it tilted the needle towards ceasure of penetrations sooner. Doing something to pilots at this ratio in Iran is not very smart thing to do, for the reason you mentioned: it won't really force attrition on a force larger than Russian one, and replenishing fighteres way faster. But air force with freedom of operations over Iran can retaliate so disproportionally that you don't really want to do it.

your assumption is that the US is willpower limited, not capability limited.

Does it have the capability to "retaliate disproportionately" in a way that it hasn't already done? to increase its sortie rate?

 

[Faisal Iqbal]

The US is run by negative IQ retards, edition 10001. These countries probably understand the full extent of the US abandonment of them now.

Not only did they pull back all protection, but they also provoked Iran into potentially retaliating against them hard without any care. Truly the best "partner".

For now, Iran only retaliated against Bahrain, since it is the most involved in attacks on Iran, but the others need to be very careful and grateful.

Those who live in glass houses shouldn't throw stones.

 

[iewgnem]

Well, when VKS could bomb inner Ukraine ~at will(first week of its war) - it did, and by doing so had massively larger strike bandwidth.
Now Russian strike into Ukraine is LACM/TBM salvo every week or so (10-20 missiles, i.e. 500 kg bombs; of which certain proportion hit their targets). It's also swarms of shaheds - which are 50-100kg bombs and are more vulnerable to EW.

By comparison, early in the war, Russia averaged couple hundred strikes sorties into Ukraine, with targets served either with unguided bomb salvos, or by tactical guided weapons. I.e. every single day, VKS could deliver more weight inside Ukraine, to more important targets, than now several stand off attacks do.

Russia operating outside of inner Ukrainian airspace is not a matter of choice, it's a neccesity; if it could do so without unsustainable attrition(loss to replenishment ratio) and political damage(captured/mutilated pilots), it would've done so.

US/IS haven't lost manned aircraft over Iran at this point, not a single one. And even if they will, at this point it's clear it's sustainable rate of losses. Torturing Russian pilots was more or less a safe bet in 2022 for Ukraine: it tilted the needle towards ceasure of penetrations sooner. Doing something to pilots at this ratio in Iran is not very smart thing to do, for the reason you mentioned: it won't really force attrition on a force larger than Russian one, and replenishing fighteres way faster. But air force with freedom of operations over Iran can retaliate so disproportionally that you don't really want to do it.

You do realize Kiev is only 90km from the border and Russia could easily rain FABs to demolish the city from bombers well within friendly airspace. The same is more true for Kharkov at only 30km from the border. The reason Russia doesn't do that is because it contributes nothing to the war.

And USIS lost 3x F-15 over Iran and Iraq not counting the ones shot down by Kuwait, you think they'd be using JASSMs from B-52 if it can fly safely into Iran? The fact that USIS disavow, or in Israel's case literally has a Hanabal directive to kill their own captured soldiers is a phenonmon unique to USIS whose force are made up not of people but slaves, where they care more about saving face than protecting their people.

The need to kill children and the belief you can win with terror bombing is an exclusively USIS concept, a concept they like to project to others. There is a reason all civilized countries with long lasting histories all converged on similiar moral codes, and there's a reason the people making up Israel has been kicked out of every civilizaed country for 2000 years and could never keep their own nation together for more than 80. Simply put the human world is just not comparable to USIS.

 

[Gloire_bb]

You do realize Kiev is only 90km from the border and Russia could easily rain FABs to demolish the city from bombers well within friendly airspace. The same is more true for Kharkov at only 30km from the border. The reason Russia doesn't do that is because it contributes nothing to the war.

(1)90km from border with Belarus, not with Russia. After failure of initial invasion, Belarus doesn't permit strikes from its area any longer.
(2)Kharkov is close indeed - and is being bombed occasionally. It, Zaporozhye and occasionally Dnepr are 3 cities which get occasional bombing.
But since early war, Russian bombing bandwidth is limited to production. Current high is just ~370 guided bombs per day. Add a few dozen other tactical PGMs, ok, we're at 400. Spread over these 3 cities and entire frontline.
US/IS applies them to identified valuable targets all over the country - a rich and unexhausted target list.

And USIS lost 3x F-15 over Iran and Iraq not counting the ones shot down by Kuwait, you think they'd be using JASSMs from B-52 if it can fly safely into Iran? The fact that USIS disavow, or in Israel's case literally has a Hanabal directive to kill their own captured soldiers is a phenonmon unique to USIS whose force are made up not of people but slaves, where they care more about saving face than protecting their people.

Iran is big. In some parts of Iran, they're bombing ~freely enough at this point - risk is manageable for tactical fighters.
In others - it still isn't, but overall rolling of air defenses is clearly in process.
US/IS didn't lose 3x F-15 over Iran; not a single one. Kuwait accident, while damaging, doesn't really add much threat to Iranian AD. As such, despite this case, loss rate remains ignorable.

The need to kill children and the belief you can win with terror bombing is an exclusively USIS concept, a concept they like to project to others. There is a reason all civilized countries with long lasting histories all converged on similiar moral codes, and there's a reason the people making up Israel has been kicked out of every civilizaed country for 2000 years and could never keep their own nation together for more than 80. Simply put the human world is just not comparable to USIS.

Winning with terror bombing, like it or not, was achieved many times in history.
And the so-called civilized countries, as far as i can see, took mouthload of water about it and don't dare to produce a single sound. German prime minister was very open about his opinion on whom international law protection is for.

 

[neutralobserver]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2030736462161891462

I'm just wondering if there are any TACO options left for Trump or what the end game is at this point.

 

[Serb]

Winning with terror bombing, like it or not, was achieved many times in history.

I don't think so. Are you talking without troops on the ground?

I can name way more examples where it didn't happen.

Actually the only unique place where it has happened in history is Serbia.

But as someone said, it was because we didn't have a win condition in sight.

And NATO was around 100 times larger in population, and it was an unipolar moment.

Actually, the type of force projection the US had the most success with in the past,

Were the CIA-based intelligence coups when it had insiders or a small number of special forces on the ground, as it happened in Venezuela.

Their track record in large-scale conventional warfare, ever since WW2, in a strategic sense, is abysmal.

And they can't expect only special ops to work on Iran as they did on DR, Grenada, Panama, Haiti, etc.

 

[Anlsvrthng]

(1)90km from border with Belarus, not with Russia. After failure of initial invasion, Belarus doesn't permit strikes from its area any longer.
(2)Kharkov is close indeed - and is being bombed occasionally. It, Zaporozhye and occasionally Dnepr are 3 cities which get occasional bombing.
But since early war, Russian bombing bandwidth is limited to production. Current high is just ~370 guided bombs per day. Add a few dozen other tactical PGMs, ok, we're at 400. Spread over these 3 cities and entire frontline.
US/IS applies them to identified valuable targets all over the country - a rich and unexhausted target list.

Iran is big. In some parts of Iran, they're bombing ~freely enough at this point - risk is manageable for tactical fighters.
In others - it still isn't, but overall rolling of air defenses is clearly in process.
US/IS didn't lose 3x F-15 over Iran; not a single one. Kuwait accident, while damaging, doesn't really add much threat to Iranian AD. As such, despite this case, loss rate remains ignorable.

Iran Geographics makes it extremely hard to do deep strikes without serious losses.

Iran has highly mobile ,high altitude Sam system, like bunk kub and so on.

Most likely half or more of these systems hiding in the western hillsides waiting for the bombers to enter the country and hit them.

No method of protection against them.

 

[iewgnem]

(1)90km from border with Belarus, not with Russia. After failure of initial invasion, Belarus doesn't permit strikes from its area any longer.
(2)Kharkov is close indeed - and is being bombed occasionally. It, Zaporozhye and occasionally Dnepr are 3 cities which get occasional bombing.
But since early war, Russian bombing bandwidth is limited to production. Current high is just ~370 guided bombs per day. Add a few dozen other tactical PGMs, ok, we're at 400. Spread over these 3 cities and entire frontline.
US/IS applies them to identified valuable targets all over the country - a rich and unexhausted target list.

Iran is big. In some parts of Iran, they're bombing ~freely enough at this point - risk is manageable for tactical fighters.
In others - it still isn't, but overall rolling of air defenses is clearly in process.
US/IS didn't lose 3x F-15 over Iran; not a single one. Kuwait accident, while damaging, doesn't really add much threat to Iranian AD. As such, despite this case, loss rate remains ignorable.

Winning with terror bombing, like it or not, was achieved many times in history.
And the so-called civilized countries, as far as i can see, took mouthload of water about it and don't dare to produce a single sound. German prime minister was very open about his opinion on whom international law protection is for.

You certainly went from "terror bombing is great, Russia just can't do it" to "USIS applies them to identifiable value targets" real fast lol
Fact on the ground is Russia can terror bomb Ukraine order of magnitudes easier than USIS can terror bomb Iran via multiple refuels without any base in the region.

Its pretty tragic being an American soldier or pilot, in any other country if you die or get captured you're honoured and your sacrificee recognized, US would pretend its dead never happened and your family would never find out what happened to you to maintain the facade of "only 6 dead" or "no jets has been shot down".

Winning through terror bombings has never happened through history, not in WW2, not during Vietnam and not even in Gaza. The fact that USIS and people like you think lack of immediate consequence implies it works is a product of the chosen people never having survive long enough to learn why civilized nations all converged on similar set of laws of war. Understanding of long term and 2nd order consequences require civilizational experience that short lived cults lack. You're not the first people in history who "discovered" the benifit of barbarism, you just haven't asked why they've all lost.

This is especially relevant in the Iran scenerio, because terror bombing ensures Iran will fight to the last man, and countries like Germany, whom you pointed out proudly proclaimed international law doesn't matter, who are already suffering from industrial collapse, would experience true existential economical and societal consequences.