2026 Israel - Iranian conflict [TEMP LOCKED]

[FairAndUnbiased]

North Korea's military strength is actually inferior to South Korea's, and neither Russia nor China would send troops to support a potential offensive.

Furthermore, Kim has shown no interest in this, because he knows it's impossible; the "two-state theory" serves as a case in point.

Is it? We actually don't know that as a fact, because the conventional wisdom was that Iran would get flattened in 2 days yet it took out 5 confirmed THAAD radars, 1 PAVE PAWS, and potentially 4 replacement THAAD radars, including some stripped from South Korea itself. It is having immense effect on Israel despite using only drones and MRBMs.

The problem is one of exploitation and North Korea's proximity solves that problem.

 

[Randomuser]

A boxing match is 12 rounds. We are only in the middle of round 2 here and Israel wants an indefinite pause of the fight until it feels comfortable enough to continue?

That's not how it works. They asked for it. They should honour it and fight Iran all 12 rounds right here right now. All the way until the end.

Technically it should be no holds barred. So no rounds or time limit. Only when someone is crushed or admits defeat will the fight end. No timeouts.

 

[Sinnavuuty]

The US and Israel are probably depleting their weapons many many times faster than that MIC could make them

According to this article that researched US stockpiles:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Since the systems entered service, the US has acquired approximately 12,000 SM-2s, 400 SM-3s, 1,500 SM-6s, and 9,000 Tomahawks – however, at least 2,800 Standard missiles and 2,900 Tomahawks had already been consumed in operations, training, or retired from service even before the major conflicts of 2025. The US Navy possessed, at that time, approximately 10,000 vertical launch systems (VLS) on its ships, but did not have enough missiles to fill them even once.

On the production side, the numbers are equally revealing, and in this case, modest. Between January 2024 and June 2025, the US Navy produced zero new SM-2s, 87 SM-3s, and approximately 187 SM-6s. Pentagon records show that the Navy acquired only 68 Tomahawks in fiscal year 2023, 34 in 2024, with plans for 22 in 2025 and 57 in 2026, rates that would make replacing the consumption of Operation Iraqi Freedom (800 Tomahawks) a task of more than a decade. THAAD production had been only a dozen new missiles per year before the 2026 agreements.

 

[iewgnem]

That's indeed the difference. Russian bombs fall on tactical combat zone, where everything is dispersed, dug in and is built redundant.
US/IS bombs fall on rear and civilian infrastructure, which is concentrated,not reinforced and has disproportional effects when hit.

If bombing civilians can win you the war Russia could do it too.
There is a reason why Russia has been around for centuries while the people running Israel has never been able to keep a country together for longer than 80 years.

 

[sheogorath]

I wonder how they plan on making money with a crashed world economy.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2030654776674013635

 

[another505]

I wonder how they plan on making money with a crashed world economy.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2030654776674013635

We poor small folks won't, but they would. It is Trump cabal after all

 

[Gloire_bb]

If bombing civilians can win you the war Russia could do it too.
There is a reason why Russia has been around for centuries while the people running Israel has never been able to keep a country together for longer than 80 years.

Well, when VKS could bomb inner Ukraine ~at will(first week of its war) - it did, and by doing so had massively larger strike bandwidth.
Now Russian strike into Ukraine is LACM/TBM salvo every week or so (10-20 missiles, i.e. 500 kg bombs; of which certain proportion hit their targets). It's also swarms of shaheds - which are 50-100kg bombs and are more vulnerable to EW.

By comparison, early in the war, Russia averaged couple hundred strikes sorties into Ukraine, with targets served either with unguided bomb salvos, or by tactical guided weapons. I.e. every single day, VKS could deliver more weight inside Ukraine, to more important targets, than now several stand off attacks do.

Russia operating outside of inner Ukrainian airspace is not a matter of choice, it's a neccesity; if it could do so without unsustainable attrition(loss to replenishment ratio) and political damage(captured/mutilated pilots), it would've done so.

US/IS haven't lost manned aircraft over Iran at this point, not a single one. And even if they will, at this point it's clear it's sustainable rate of losses. Torturing Russian pilots was more or less a safe bet in 2022 for Ukraine: it tilted the needle towards ceasure of penetrations sooner. Doing something to pilots at this ratio in Iran is not very smart thing to do, for the reason you mentioned: it won't really force attrition on a force larger than Russian one, and replenishing fighteres way faster. But air force with freedom of operations over Iran can retaliate so disproportionally that you don't really want to do it.

 

[Kalum Pupeter]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2030630939932442815

 

[Kalum Pupeter]

Well, Mehdi, tell that to your Arab Gulf monarch friends whose countries are dotted with U.S. military bases that help entrench American military hegemony across the region. Secondly, there is an obvious but unspoken hierarchy in the value placed on human lives.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2030680476612956433

 

[Serb]

Even the Kurds largely don't take the meme empire seriously anymore, it seems.

Imagine if your only answers to Iran are lowly false flags and Kurd paramillitary groups, anyway.

(Besides targeting soccer stadiums, UNESCO sites and Red Cross facilities, no joke.)

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2030711435047641455