2026 Israel - Iranian conflict [TEMP LOCKED]

[FairAndUnbiased]

It feels more like the US is going to dig in for the long run. Restart the military industrial complex, get their allies to make more weapons and ammo (the South Koreans in particular, since they still have a strong industrial base and stand to make billions off of helping the US), and just keep the war going until the Trump administration is swept out of power (likely, given its bad optics, unless they declare martial law and seize permanent power).

Btw i wonder what are the feelings in Seoul - they have nowhere near comparable ABM assets to ME nations.
I.e. they're as good as naked.

Speaking of South Korea. The South Korean air force is weaker than the Israeli air force, has much lower air defense, and is connected by land to North Korea.

Iran just validated North Korean doctrine and showed you do not need air power to achieve the strike effects of air power. And unlike Iran which can't exploit the gap opened by missiles and drones, North Korea can with ground forces. South Korea's army is literally weaker than ever due to its demographic problems, and is exceptionally immobile because the Straits of Hormuz closing puts them on an oil clock.

Once the 4th carrier leaves Japan and all the THAADs and Patriots are transferred to the Middle East, it might be go time. This could be the chance of the century for Kim Jong Un, and he's already got both his own arsenal and the treaties signed with China and Russia as his backing.

 

[neutralobserver]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2030704296031920628

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2030704651083882580

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Yeah, It's not that easy or straightforward. As soon as they have air superiority (some say they already do), they can lob tens of thousands of JDAMs down.
And they have those at hand.

This is war, and it sucks.

Against even Serbia, the US couldn't get air supremacy for 3 months and was restricted to high altitude strikes, because low altitude was too dangerous due to SHORAD and MANPADs. This resulted in Serbia only suffering 25 proven armored vehicle losses in 3 months of bombing. US independent media Newsweek found the Serbian count was more accurate than the NATO report.

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Is Iran more like Iraq, a flat desert, or Serbia, a mountainous, forested country? The difference is, Serbia surrendered because they had no win condition and feared a NATO ground invasion. Iran does have a win condition and has outright said they were OK with a boots on the ground situation.

 

[iewgnem]

Yeah, It's not that easy or straightforward. As soon as they have air superiority (some say they already do), they can lob tens of thousands of JDAMs down.
And they have those at hand.

This is war, and it sucks.

1. USIS ability to destroy Iran's land attack missile launchers is equal to their ability to destroy air defence launchers, both can shelter in underground bases and AD can and has been popping out to ambush aircraft.
2. Sortie generation via 2 aerial refuels is extremely limited, we're talking at most 3 sorties per pilot per day at best.
3. USIS like to use delayed fuse and bomb dirt to generate plumes of dust, but yield on those bombs are still only enough to destroy one structure at a time, if you look at satellite image of Iranian bases after a strike instead of just the dust they generated the damage per JDAM is actually pretty limited.

Keep in mind Russia has been dropping FABs on just eastern Ukraine non-stop for almost 3 years now in quantity well in excess of tens thousands, and Iran is 2x the size of Ukraine. The world is a much bigger place than most people realize.

Fact of the matter is USIS is fighting with the same decades old technology, while Iran is fighting with modern technology and tactics specifically designed to counter USIS tech and tactics. It's not that Iranian tactics are undefeatable, but you will need new approaches well beyond dropping JDAMs.

 

[FriedRiceNSpice]

Against even Serbia, the US couldn't get air supremacy for 3 months and was restricted to high altitude strikes, because low altitude was too dangerous due to SHORAD and MANPADs. This resulted in Serbia only suffering 25 proven armored vehicle losses in 3 months of bombing. US independent media Newsweek found the Serbian count was more accurate than the NATO report.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Is Iran more like Iraq, a flat desert, or Serbia, a mountainous, forested country? The difference is, Serbia surrendered because they had no win condition and feared a NATO ground invasion. Iran does have a win condition and has outright said they were OK with a boots on the ground situation.

Even during the first Gulf War, on flat desert, interviews with Iraqi commanders reveal that in the air offensive leading up to the ground campaign, front line Iraqi armor brigades lost only around 10% of their armor and vehicles from the air strikes. Airpower only inflicted heavy losses once Iraqi forces were routed and got stuck in massive traffic jams as part of a disorganized and panicked mass retreat.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Even during the first Gulf War, on flat desert, interviews with Iraqi commanders reveal that in the air offensive leading up to the ground campaign, front line Iraqi armor brigades lost only around 10% of their armor and vehicles from the air strikes. Airpower only inflicted heavy losses once Iraqi forces were routed and got stuck in massive traffic jams as part of a disorganized and panicked mass retreat.

we can see this in Ukraine too. Russia launched 11k cruise missiles alone at Ukraine, there are 10+ daily drone strikes and the Russian air force has been dropping 500 kg bombs on the frontline for 3 years, AND they're being pounded by artillery.

Still can't clear Ukrainians completely and it still comes down to infantry in the end.

 

[bsdnf]

Speaking of South Korea. The South Korean air force is weaker than the Israeli air force, has much lower air defense, and is connected by land to North Korea.

Iran just validated North Korean doctrine and showed you do not need air power to achieve the strike effects of air power. And unlike Iran which can't exploit the gap opened by missiles and drones, North Korea can with ground forces. South Korea's army is literally weaker than ever due to its demographic problems, and is exceptionally immobile because the Straits of Hormuz closing puts them on an oil clock.

Once the 4th carrier leaves Japan and all the THAADs and Patriots are transferred to the Middle East, it might be go time. This could be the chance of the century for Kim Jong Un, and he's already got both his own arsenal and the treaties signed with China and Russia as his backing.

North Korea's military strength is actually inferior to South Korea's, and neither Russia nor China would send troops to support a potential offensive.

Furthermore, Kim has shown no interest in this, because he knows it's impossible; the "two-state theory" serves as a case in point.

 

[Gloire_bb]

Keep in mind Russia has been dropping FABs on just eastern Ukraine non-stop for almost 3 years now in quantity well in excess of tens thousands, and Iran is 2x the size of Ukraine. The world is a much bigger place than most people realize.

That's indeed the difference. Russian bombs fall on tactical combat zone, where everything is dispersed, dug in and is built redundant.
US/IS bombs fall on rear and civilian infrastructure, which is concentrated,not reinforced and has disproportional effects when hit.

 

[sheogorath]

No mercy even among themselves.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2030556558128799936

Quite a big of damage, surprised they let the guy film openly, though

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2030644859762028739

 

[ohan_qwe]

View attachment 171100

5940 RMB to break even. Factoring in delivery costs, taxes, manufacturing costs etc. probably around 2K USD a pop. This is not even accounting for economy of scale.

50cc engine should mean 1/10th the size of a Shahed-136 that have 548cc engine.