2026 Israel - Iranian conflict [TEMP LOCKED]

Will Iran-Israel conflict start again?

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shiftenter

shiftenter

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U.S. weighs sending special forces to seize Iran's nuclear stockpile​

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  • NBC News reported on Friday that Trump has discussed the idea of deploying a small contingent of U.S. troops in Iran for specific strategic purposes.
The U.S. official laid out the operational challenge of securing Iran's uranium: "The first question is, where is it? The second question is, how do we get to it and how do we get physical control?"
  • "And then, it would be a decision of the president and the Department of War, CIA, as to whether we wanted to physically transport it or dilute it on premises."
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The bottom line: "Boots on the ground for Trump is not the same as what it means for the media," a senior U.S. official said.

  • "Small special ops raids — not a big force going in," another source added.
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generalmeng

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TPenglake said:
The use of a nuke would make the US an international pariah and not only hasten nuclear proliferation across the globe, but establish an immediate precedent for nuclear armed countries to use them. Henceforth, no one can blame China for example if for the sake of "strategic security," they lob a nuke at Osaka if Takaichi tries her luck.
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If one great power use nuke. Everyone in the world is going to get their own nukes. Nuke is a ultimate weapon and a great responsibility.


This is a great way to end all humanity.
 
FairAndUnbiased

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
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Aval said:
I wonder if this war will lead to nuclear strikes. If Israel/America cannot sufficiently degrade Iran's AD, they are practically the only available solution to both the need to bomb large amounts of Iranian surface infrastructure and also to reach deep underground strongholds. It is too early at the moment, but after at least a month or two there may be talks about this option.

It may sound needlessly escalatory, but I want to remind all that Trump's two presidencies have been defined by just how many otherwise "sacred" norms he has broken and "infamous firsts" he has caused, not to mention Israel as the world's only openly genocidal state.

I suspect Israel will want to keep its own nuclear weapons as an actual last resort for if their core territories are threatened by land invasion, but they may urge Trump to use American nukes to hasten the end of a war that would otherwise be his presidency's defining quagmire and failure.

My primary concern at the moment is that the global response would be weak. The events of the last decade have shown that, despite all the rhetoric to the contrary, America can in fact do whatever it wants and only the other superpowers can resist. The rest just grumble and acquiesce. From unilateral sanctions (countless) and blanket trade wars (two) to bullying allies (Greenland) to assassinations (Soleimani) and kidnappings (Maduro), the world merely expresses the same shock and insults to Trump then go about their lives, offering only public speeches of hesitation to work with the Americans over the long-term. The only true response I can see is Russia using nukes in kind in Ukraine (should the tactical situation require it), but even that seems far-fetched with Putin's sentiment to the affected peoples.

Similarly, I do not believe the first nuclear strikes will hit population centres. They will try the underground nuclear facilities first. Only after they've gauged the relations cost would they decide to proceed with targeting cities. Iran has no real means to respond to nuclear escalation, and I do not see Russia nor China extending them a nuclear umbrella as Iran's fate does not affect their core interests. Similarly, I do not see how the Rest Of World could make Israel/America pay for breaking the nuclear taboo. The power imbalance is too lopsided for what ultimately amounts to just a moral line in the sand (as horrible as that sounds).
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Iran can mine the Straits of Hormuz and shoot minesweepers, keeping the Straits closed permanently. It can also strike refinery, storage, desalination and water treatment facilities not only in Israel but in Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar and Bahrain. Finally, it can put together a few crude gun style fission devices from surviving HEU and launch them on remaining MRBMs, at which point their opponents would have exhausted air defenses.

End result: 3 entire regions of US allies (EU, East Asia, Middle East) suffer total energy and societal collapse within historically short timeframes.

Military results:

Russia can nuke western Ukrainian weapons warehouses and airfields in response.

North Korea could kick off Korean War 2. They have a breeder reactor, so don't think they've stopped at 50 warheads. South Korean Patriots and THAAD got transferred to the Middle East, so their stuff is getting through. And simultaneously, Hormuz would be blocked.

Not even getting into what China has, but note that North Korea has both the Sino-Korean and Russo-Korean MDT.
 
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enroger

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another505 said:
Interesting, if Azerbaijan joins, any odds of armenia attacking azer? Any expert about that region?
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Not an expert but I seriously doubt Azerbaijan would want to start an adventure there unless the US already put down half a mil troops and Azerbaijan gets to act as auxiliaries. Even then there is a high likelihood their country will be ruined like we just saw with the Gulf states, not to mention possible Russian intervention.

Trump is so desperate, hoping someone else would stick their dick into the wood chipper for him. Even the Kurds seems to have wised up now.
 
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RottenPanzer

RottenPanzer

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Are we seriously consider Nuclear Weaponry as a valid tactic to be used? It's almost taboo to even consider using such weapons and certainly not in the psyche of US and even as irrational as the Israelis. The last time Nuclear Weapons were used was 80 years ago. A very huge psychological gap for the involved actors.

As crazy as Trump and Netanyahu are, they are not psychologically and mentally prepared for the consequences in using nuclear weapons.

Chevalier said:
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2030414177890697290

looks like this was how the U.S. soldiers were captured, from an abortive landing. Also, are the Iranians fighting to a soundtrack? No one wants to get their ass best to a soundtrack.
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Daily reminder that the average Iranian military grunt is still using G3 Battle Rifle as their standard issue weapon.
 
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