The timing of this war is extremely dangerous to the entire region. It was perhaps only in this decade that replacing fossil fuels wholesale has become a feasible future, thanks primarily to the technical maturity and mass-scale production of alternative energy infrastructure. This includes not just inputs like solar and nuclear (potentially even fusion), but also outputs like EVs, 24/7 automated factories, and compute datacentres. I don't think I have to elaborate on which nation is at the forefront of these efforts.
Centerpiece to this drive is resilience against disruption, with not being affected by political instability in other regions of the world being seen akin to a form of energy sovereignty. A concept Europe and India is about to learn first-hand.
For the people of the region, I believe the gravest news are the strikes on Gulf energy infrastructure, American executive proclamations of "taking their oil", and the strangling of the Hormuz energy throat. Even with a lack of a physical blockade, the repeated strikes and threats of strikes has made energy infrastructure uninvestable and alternative energy methods much more attractive.
The once-in-history opportunity of Middle Eastern nations to skip industrialisation and the whole-of-society changes it necessitates is rapidly passing. The only reason such feudal kingdoms and archaic societies have survived into our modern world, let alone be tolerated by modern global discourse, is crumbling before our eyes.
If the war is not resolved soon, the whole region will fail to transition away from fossil fuel economies before they become obsolete, leaving all nations stuck in a pre-industrial state and of no value to the global economy. Within decades all that has been built here would return to the sands. I believe the GCC nations are aware of this, which makes Iran's ultimatum urgent. The IRGC will not allow their fossil fuel economies to resume until and unless the US is driven from GCC territories, so now they are under the pressure of time to act. Even 6 months of war could pause oil and natural gas flow for half a decade or more, as only peace will invite the investment needed to keep the oil flowing and the economy transitioning to services.
Centerpiece to this drive is resilience against disruption, with not being affected by political instability in other regions of the world being seen akin to a form of energy sovereignty. A concept Europe and India is about to learn first-hand.
For the people of the region, I believe the gravest news are the strikes on Gulf energy infrastructure, American executive proclamations of "taking their oil", and the strangling of the Hormuz energy throat. Even with a lack of a physical blockade, the repeated strikes and threats of strikes has made energy infrastructure uninvestable and alternative energy methods much more attractive.
The once-in-history opportunity of Middle Eastern nations to skip industrialisation and the whole-of-society changes it necessitates is rapidly passing. The only reason such feudal kingdoms and archaic societies have survived into our modern world, let alone be tolerated by modern global discourse, is crumbling before our eyes.
If the war is not resolved soon, the whole region will fail to transition away from fossil fuel economies before they become obsolete, leaving all nations stuck in a pre-industrial state and of no value to the global economy. Within decades all that has been built here would return to the sands. I believe the GCC nations are aware of this, which makes Iran's ultimatum urgent. The IRGC will not allow their fossil fuel economies to resume until and unless the US is driven from GCC territories, so now they are under the pressure of time to act. Even 6 months of war could pause oil and natural gas flow for half a decade or more, as only peace will invite the investment needed to keep the oil flowing and the economy transitioning to services.
