2026 Israel - Iranian conflict [TEMP LOCKED]

[delfer]

Gosh tehran is being hit extra tonight, there are reports of bombings at Natanz too.
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Mehrabad Airport Tehran.
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Iran sent 3 waves so far tonight, 1 targeted the Dimona nuclear reactor, they intercepted them but they were like 20+ missiles used.
And one of the waves had 3 missiles and all 3 of them hit because no interceptor missile was fired toward them.

I think the lack of radars is having a huge issue in israel, the missile warning time has been reduced to 1-2 minutes too, instead of 15 minutes they used to have.

Meh, no different than last year. The US, Israel and Ukraine always like to hit targets that produce a lot of smoke to sow fear into the population and score propaganda wins. Except this time, unfortunately for them, it's too late now.

Not to mention the fact that, judging from the explosive patterns I've seen from the footage of Tehran, most of these bombs are air-launched rocket munitions, not glide bombs, so the U.S. has yet to gain air superiority over Iran and is mostly doing stand-off strikes, save for the odd stealth mission or two into Iranian territory for propaganda.

 

[AlexYe]

this was suicide

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2030040383577641376

There is a fight going on iran between IRGC who wants to put the hardliner Mujataba as next leader,
While council-gov want a more liberal guy, this could get ugly tbh.
If hardliner comes 1st thing he will do is lift all these bans.

There are 22-24 THAAD AN/TPY-2 radars world wide in existence according to my research.

And I am assuming they arent easily manufacture-able, good good.

 

[duskseeker]

Warmongers in Washington, Tel Aviv, London or Brussels will never realize that people like Khamenei, Putin or Xi are actually the people that keep the hardliners in check and are of a more reasonable and conflict averse stock.

They won't know to appreciate that until said hardliners replace these people. And in Iran it seems like that change is currently taking place, no more Mr. Nice Ayatollah.

Medvedev would be a total nightmare to the USA if Putin were to stepdown.

 

[delfer]

Medvedev would be a total nightmare to the USA if Putin were to stepdown.

I wouldn't be so sure. He may act like a lunatic, but I sense that in reality it's just for show and he's not actually much different from Putin. Someone far more radical would have to take power. Someone similar to Prigozhin.

 

[sheogorath]

I wouldn't be so sure. He may act like a lunatic, but I sense that in reality it's just for show and he's not actually much different from Putin. Someone far more radical would have to take power. Someone similar to Prigozhin.

I think that Libya happening under him probably soured him a lot towards the west, though

Seems the israelis are attempting to do an air evacuation(or air assault on) from southern Lebanon

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2030065842487185445

 

[gwel]

And I am assuming they arent easily manufacture-able, good good.

Yes, for two reasons.

Most AN/TPY-2 radars (THAAD) are still gallium arsenide, which is inferior to newer gallium nitride technology.
Raytheon assembled their first all GaN AN/TPY-2 in 2025, so very recently.
The plan was to retrofit older AN/TPY-2 with GaN modules, replacing the old GaA ones for performance reasons.
Each radar needs 25,000 modules, they're huge.

F-35 have recently been delivered without radar, because they did a similar transition here, from the GaA AN/APG-81 to the 85 based on GaN, and the GaN manufacturing isn't going very smoothly, they have big yield issues.

On top of that of course there is a general gallium shortage since the main producer ( hint: country name starts with a C ) blocked exports.
The second biggest producer is Russia, and together with the #1 they have like 99% market share. Nobody else really makes gallium in any quantity.

There is a recycling effort in the US to collect gallium from used electronics.
Not a great time to loose these radars.

 

[AlexYe]

Meh, no different than last year. The US, Israel and Ukraine always like to hit targets that produce a lot of smoke to sow fear into the population and score propaganda wins. Except this time, unfortunately for them, it's too late now.

Not to discount Iran's bravery, but frequency of attack waves is much higher this time,
But i agree over all.

The first picture seemed like hit some sort of ammo-dump atleast, the little flashes remind me of ammo getting lit.

Medvedev would be a total nightmare to the USA if Putin were to stepdown.

Atleast with Medvedev there would be twitter wars happening between Trump n him.
Boomer subs here, BOOMER SUBS THERE


Hezbollah,lebanon.
An Israeli commando force has been besieged by Ridwan Forces in the Nabi Sheet area, Beqaa, Israel attempted to send 3 helicopters to extract them but They got fired so much by the ground that they emergency laanded syrian side of border to land and are now pinned too because of AA.
Hezbolla is gonna completely surround them.

hebrew media is also saying of a serious 'security situation' in lebanon beqaa,

 

[iewgnem]

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Yeah, I think some crypto silicon valley tech bro sold <scammed> the Pentagon with an LLM finetuned with Mossad intelligence as some sort of ASI, they replaced the human commanders with it and now the damn thing is hallucinating like crazy.

You just need to think of Palentir as NSA privatization, then look at how good America's privatized healthcare is vs everyone else.

 

[iewgnem]

I actually struggle to make sense of this.

US ISR used to be top notch, and with all the AI hype and Palantir masturbation, I would have thought that they track every civilian truck and train custom AI models to figure out exactly the material flow of all of irans imports, and deduce every single manufacturing place etc and basically know what is going on in those caves and bunkers.

But it seems they have no idea what to shoot at? Did Iran do that good a job, or should I follow Michael Burry's lead and short Palantir stock?
On the other hand Iran knew surprisingly well where to hit back at the US.

Surely they must at least know where the high value high capability Iranian missiles are which seem to penetrate the AD so effortlessly? Surely the US has enough munitions to take at least those out?
Or did the Iranians do such a good job hiding them under enough mountains that this requires B-2s with bunker busters and the US is actually limited in sortie generation for that?

GBU-57 can only go 60m, even if you round it up to 100m, you're going to find it's infinitely easier to dig a tunnel >100m deep in a country full of mountains, than it is to increase a bomb's reach by an extra 10m. You might also find it easier for Iran to figure out how deep GBU-57 can reach, than it is for US to know how deep those tunnels are.

Humanity has not yet advanced to a level of technology where 100m of rock can be bypassed with conventional weapons, or even nuclear if it's granite.

 

[AlexYe]

Iraqi Militia: The attacks on the American companies Halliburton and KBR resulted in a very large fire

F-35 have recently been delivered without radar, because they did a similar transition here, from the GaA AN/APG-81 to the 85 based on GaN, and the GaN manufacturing isn't going very smoothly, they have big yield issues.

I read somewhere that the radarless f35s were because of fuselage-mounting issue, not GaN related issue, that makes it much worse.

Hezbolla is gonna completely surround them.

Hezbollah downed an Israeli helicopter in Beqaa,with a MANPAD
there was a fiery explosion and debris going down.

GBU-57 can only go 60m,

Even that depends on the type of rock-ground, how hard-granular it is, the angle, hell even the wind.
60m is BEST case 'controlled' setting at test site scenario.