2026 Israel - Iranian conflict [TEMP LOCKED]

Will Iran-Israel conflict start again?


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EmoBirb

Junior Member
Registered Member
This isn't World War 2 though. Drones have completely changed the battlefield. The U.S. also didn't have two massive enemies waiting to strangle it the moment it did something stupid. Quite the opposite, back then those two countries were on its side. It only had to deal with small, overzealous and overly-nationalistic countries fighting wars on two fronts with much more populated countries. It also never had to do a ground invasion through such hostile territory.This would literally be the end of America if they tried it. Not even Vietnam would compare.
You're far too optimistic. Drones are nothing more than guided munitions, cheaper and comparably nimble, but very vulnerable as a consequence. Quite frankly in an all out war, which what we're seeing right now is far from it, there wouldn't be workshops or facilities to manufacture and assemble drones in a meaningful volume. While the Americans have a secure homefront where exactly this could be done, if they choose so.

The main threat to American soldiers on the ground would IEDs, prepared ambushes, "kill zones" in moutnainous terrain.

Ultimately, and this has been explained several times now, the Iranians couldn't win militarily, they just have to inflict the necessary amount of casualties and damage that it causes the US to reconsider. If the US were to be past that stage, then this isn't an option.

But as we already established, we have also already talked about this ad nauseam, the Americans, as a people, have become incredibly sensitive to casualties. So in reality that wouldn't happen.

But in the theoretical of the US public being willing to accept massive casualties, a war economy and draft, then they would wipe out the Iranian people in a couple years and there's little doubt about it.

Also, and this is just a little heads up, Germany and Japan at their height made Iran look like how Iran nowadays makes the UAE or Bahrain look like. You're comparing the second biggest European power of the 20th Century and the biggest power in Asia of the early 20th Century with a regional power that engaged mostly in (fairly successful) proxy warfare.

Wanting to see the Yankees falter shouldn't come at the expense of reason or critical thinking.
 

solarz

Brigadier
I start to think that iran does not see teheran as a strategic asset that they should protect with their limited AD. Thats why they let US and Israel bombs Teheran and their nuclear site without any protection. But it is different to the site where the US and Israel drones got shot down

Makes sense. Once they dispersed their military command, Tehran no longer serves any use as C&C. Every bomb and missile the US spends on Tehran is one less on actually valuable military targets. It's callous, but it's the reality of war.
 

delfer

Junior Member
Registered Member
You're far too optimistic. Drones are nothing more than guided munitions, cheaper and comparably nimble, but very vulnerable as a consequence. Quite frankly in an all out war, which what we're seeing right now is far from it, there wouldn't be workshops or facilities to manufacture and assemble drones in a meaningful volume. While the Americans have a secure homefront where exactly this could be done, if they choose so.

The main threat to American soldiers on the ground would IEDs, prepared ambushes, "kill zones" in moutnainous terrain.

Ultimately, and this has been explained several times now, the Iranians couldn't win militarily, they just have to inflict the necessary amount of casualties and damage that it causes the US to reconsider. If the US were to be past that stage, then this isn't an option.

But as we already established, we have also already talked about this ad nauseam, the Americans, as a people, have become incredibly sensitive to casualties. So in reality that wouldn't happen.

But in the theoretical of the US public being willing to accept massive casualties, a war economy and draft, then they would wipe out the Iranian people in a couple years and there's little doubt about it.

Also, and this is just a little heads up, Germany and Japan at their height made Iran look like how Iran nowadays makes the UAE or Bahrain look like. You're comparing the second biggest European power of the 20th Century and the biggest power in Asia of the early 20th Century with a regional power that engaged mostly in (fairly successful) proxy warfare.

Wanting to see the Yankees falter shouldn't come at the expense of reason or critical thinking.
No, the majority of drone assembly facilities would likely never be wiped out. Especially if concealed, dispersed and protected adequately by being placed underground and in other well-protected structures, such as mountains or reinforced bunkers. Drones are also far more than simply "guided munitions". They allow a defending nation to accurately destroy invading forces from great distances by spamming the battlefield, chasing down soldiers and equipment on the move, and maneuvering around obstacles, barriers and shelters used by the invaders to protect their assets. Their cheapness and simplicity to construct is also another major benefit compared to other forms of guided munitions. There is simply no comparison.

That's not to say that other forms of munitions will be of no use. Iran has plenty of artillery, ATGMs and mines to make sure that America suffers casualties at every turn, and from every kind of munition possible.

Both Japan and Germany were fighting two large, countries at once. Both had enemies on both sides that were far more populated, and in Germany's case, far more industrial. In regards to industry, Iran's current steel production, which is a good metric of industrial capacity, is only half that of America's. The US' steel production was many multiples that of Japan's during WW2. And as I said, the differences in topography and land size will make this nearly impossible.

The U.S. could mobilize ten times over if they would like to. It would still make little difference.
 
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MMelon

New Member
Registered Member
The industrial base is not the major issue, industry can be scaled.
Of all the challenges you have stated, this is actually the hardest one with the slowest ramp up, highest capital requirements, and highest talent requirements. Especially in the current environment of the key adversary's rare earth magnet monopolies. I recommend you do not speak so confidently of things you know little to nothing about (advanced manufacturing, engineering talent, rare earth refining/processing/magnet manufacturing, and supply chains).
 
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plawolf

Lieutenant General
In theory, of course.

The US could achieve a successful ground invasion in Iran. They did far more difficult things during WW2.

But they'd have to introduce the draft back and would have to be willing to accept WW2 levels of casualties. Furthermore they'd have to mobilize their entire military for that single undertaking. Meaning, deploying the entire USAF, USN, USMC and Army. The logistical dimension would be unthinkable and the expenses staggering. And while the US has mastered logsitics like no other military that's currently active, this might just break them. It would also ultimately mean they'd have to abandon all their other interests temporarily. A Situation everyone who wishes could take advantage of in their respective backyard. So not only do I not see that happening, it would be political suicide for Trump and everyone associated with his government. Thus the Israel lobby would have to look for a new pawn.

So going half hearted in would be Afghanistan but much, much, much worse, going all in would ultimately yield success but the cost would make that a phyrric victory at best.

That’s like late-Qing bragging about the might and accomplishments of peak-Ming.

The USA of today is a far cry from even that of the Gulf War, never mind WWII.

Even if they go full war economy, they will struggle to produce any modern weapons once China fully closes the tap on RE and other critical components supplies.
 
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