I don't think there are any chances for major war in the Middle East to be avoided now, unless vast amounts of concessions are given to Iran (lifting of all sanctions and paying Iran for all the damages done and the removal of all US bases in the region and helping Palestinians). There is no doubt in the average Iranian's mind that US and Israel are trying to genocide them.
The Israel and Gulf Arabs wanted Iran destroyed because they know how powerful Iran is and it's the perfect chance to destroy Iran now because Israel international image is already destroyed beyond repair. Iran wasn't as weak as they hoped though and internal cohesion is very high because of rally around the flag effect especially considering how many civilian infrastructures is hit. The Saudis stupidly thought Pakistan will defend them just because they had a pact, Pakistan isn't stupid though so that's not happening. Iran must be fed up with the gulf's betrayal; they gave Syria to a Sunni extremist US supported government without any fight because they wanted peace.
Iran has the advantage of being able to freely trade with Russia from the Caspian Sea while the rest of the Gulf states don't have such an easy way of doing trade. Russia would also provide FPVs and tactics which would give Iran the upper hand in ground warfare even if US had troops on ground and air superiority. US soldiers are also weak willed and scared of death.
I do not see any winning paths for US, Gulf Arabs and Israelis in this war. What are y'all thoughts?
There are no winning paths, and in fact, at this exact point, they're losing the perception battle.
US Cold War and post Cold War era deterrence was based on 5 assumptions:
1. Fighting the US head to head has immense costs.
2. US allies will always jump in militarily (NATO).
3. US will escalate to protect its allies.
4. US diplomacy is credible.
5. US power is constrained by willpower, not capability. Its capability is implied to be infinite, its willpower is not.
The overall message: Don't challenge the US in any way. All you have to do is appease the US, otherwise it will unleash its infinite capability. But if you do appease the US, it will pay off richly.
Iran has proven all 5 assumptions false.
1. Fighting the US: damage is actually manageable. Iran suffered 1k+ strikes. So what? As % of population, losses are negligible. Its economy can't get any worse. A few leaders died, yes, but its ground army is intact, meaning the government as a whole is safe. Now cafes are being bombed while the Iranian army hasn't lost even a single tank. Remember how Iraq lost thousands of armored vehicles? In fact it is doing better than even Russia.
2. US allies: Iran struck US bases in GCC countries yet GCC has not attacked Iran, only defended itself. Even if they wanted to, what are they gonna do that US and Israel aren't already doing? All downside, no upside.
3. US escalation: they aren't escalating proportionally to their allies being hit. Iran kept expanding the scope of the war. Did US increase sortie rate? Steam carriers in? Immediate US boots on the ground?
4. US diplomatic credibility: They attacked during negotiations. That's all I need to say.
5. US constrained by capability: They're losing early warning radars, had multiple fixed wing losses, can't force a regime change, can't reopen the straits of Hormuz and can't achieve air supremacy, only air superiority, over Iran, a country with a 1980's air force. At the same time, they've engaged in escalatory rhetoric, showing that their willpower is increasing, but their capability is not matching.
What message do you think this sends?
One thing I will add about potential munition shortages on the US side, is that with Iranian air defense seemingly destroyed, their offensive operations can switch to JDAM use. With that in mind, the US virtually has virtually unlimited strike capacity as the stockpile of JDAM weapons is massive.
If they could deliver JDAMs, they would. Are they?
