Very sporadic, and launched by high end assets like F-15Es and F-35s rather than being able to carpet bomb with B-52 or B-1. I mean even in Vietnam against an air defense network that shot down 10k of their planes they insisted on feeding a few more B-52s to the grinder just to make it look like they had effective bombing.They are definitely using glide bombs. 30km is more than enough distance to avoid Iranian defenses. We can see drone strikes by Israel/US way closer than 30km.
Yeah, US and Israel sortie rates will drop since the jets needs servicing and the largest bases around the area are already damaged which would make maintenance harder. This with the fact that drones are getting shot down means it's grip over Iran's skies will weaken over the next few weeks. This was probably the reason why Israel gave up in 12 days last time.
Even domestic Iranian SAMs outrange regular JDAM.
Iran lost less than 0.01% of its population.Similar outcome to Lebanon.
Israel will bomb them into submission. Iran will join negotiation table once civilian casualties and material damage become unbearable and sign a deal on humiliating terms. More high profile IRCG commanders and principalist politicians will be taken out. I don't foresee a regime change in a sense that Pahlavi will return to Iran and monarchy will be restored, but I think Israel and US will look to lift up the likes of Rouhani, Pezeshkian and Aranghchi. It's not a coincidence that Israel let them live.
Ukraine lost 20% and is still fighting.
They have to hit Iran 200x harder for a maybe.
