Iran’s objectives are clear — survival as a country/regime. Anything more is a plus.
Trump’s objective — I have no friggin clue. May change depending on time of day, weather, or access/lack of to social media.
2026 Israel - Iranian conflict [TEMP LOCKED]
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Trump’s objective — I have no friggin clue. May change depending on time of day, weather, or access/lack of to social media.
This would be best outcome, get concessions and in the concession they have to empty some of their middle east bases. Esp the gulf.
Trump no doubt wants an out already and is ready for some excuse he can sell.
Trump Tower in Tehran ofcourse. i jest.
I'm inclined to believe this might become a stalled conflict with neither side being able of doing any major advancements on the ground, like the Russo Ukraine war
At this moment i'm leaning toward Iran will prevail go hard pivot east/BRICS, their objective is to survive no matter what.
For the US this has always been a war of choice and they will find a way to unilaterally do an off ramp and given their control over the global information streams they can sell it as them having won this "war". They killed a lot of iranian figure heads, so it will be a relative easy sell.
Meanwhile Israel will probably limp along missing a leg and a arm, maybe get the Kurd treatment from the West.
Main bombings of Germany took place in 1944; and by 1945 most of the German industry was decimated. It will take less time to deindustrialize Iran because modern bombs are more accurate and the sky above Iran is uncontested. But I am not sure if there's a political will in Washington for that.
I don't think so, it's very hard to defend empty desert. You can just drive around any fortifications and defensives. If Iraq was like Vietnam US invasion would not have succeed. There are not a lot of defendable positions and the threat of getting cut off is big.
In general what you want from an air campaign is to use high end missiles and strike planes to kick open the door and eliminate air defense capabilities, then you can use short range but high endurance weapons such as glide bombs, helicopters, tanks, artillery, etc. If this fails, you lose endurance since your missile stockpile gets low and run out of economically viable targets.
Since Iranian F-4s are still flying and drones are being shot down constantly, it shows that Iranian airspace is still in the contested phase. They can't use their low end weapons yet, they are still using missiles and strike planes. But every launch and sortie exhausts them because it costs 1 Shahed equivalent per hour in maintenance and operation costs to fly a F-15E let alone anything higher end.
They must put boots on the ground or give up.
In a way, US and Israelis are doing Iran a favor. Most of the destruction are happening to pro-US elites, the same people who protested a few days ago. Reducing their numbers or making them insta poor and forcing them to migrate out of Iran is actually a good to ensure regime survival.
Iran needs an exodus of the pro-western elites to have long term regime survival. Then they need to close their country down for a few years, produce the hell out of missiles and drones and then detonate a nuke. That is the ultimate way to ensure survival.
they unlocked the 17 pro max without his password
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