09III/09IV (093/094) Nuclear Submarine Thread
- Thread starter SinoSoldier
- Start date
Apparently?
Based on circumstantial evidence being discussed at the Type 095 thread.
Hard to say. The PLAN may decide to procure another batch of 093Bs for this 5YP as a fallback option just in case major faults were found in and/or major reworks are required for the new class. Besides, we don't even know if Huludao will keep continuously producing more boats of the 095-class for the next few years beyond the 2-3 boats that we know of so far.
Also, I should note that since the 095 SSN has been observed to be about similarly long as the 093B SSNs - Unless we have a rich a$$ sponsor in this forum who can purchase high-definition satellite photos of Huludao every time something comes out of the eastern assembly halls, and/or that we have a "walking 500 thousand" in this forum who dares to loiter around the shipyard and provides real-time launch updates - With the abysmal quality of free satellite photos we have access to, attempts to visually classify the subsequent boats between the 093B and 095 classes are going to be much harder from now on.
In the meantime, unless the future 095 boats (or its variants) have significantly different lengths than the 093Bs and the current 095, and/or that we have clear indications/claims from reliable OSINT sources inside and outside China - I think the best we could do is just to classify any new launches from Huludao that are ~110 meters in length in the general "newly-built SSN" category instead of their respective classes.
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We do not know how many 09Vs are in various stages of production, but 3-4 seems to be a reasonable guess and if we take it at face value, there is no reason why 3-4 09Vs at various stags of production would mean "there will not be a second batch of 09IIIBs".
Considering "various stages of production" can mean anything from fabrication of long lead items, pressure hull fabrication, assembly, or preparation for launch, 3-4 09Vs isn't actually that many boats, and it would be very normal for additional SSNs (like additional 09IIIBs) to also be in various stages of production alongside it given the PLAN's assumed appetite for new SSNs.
Even if we assume a relatively moderate 3x SSN per year production rate for the next few years (which they probably are able to spin up to at this point) and assume that 1 is 09V and 2 are 09IIIBs, let's say if they placed an order for 4x 09Vs and 8x 09IIIBs that would be an order that would be all launched by the end of 2029, which would require long lead production of all of those boats to already be in "various stages of production".
All of this is ignoring that in the last few years all talk of 09V has coincided with rumours that 09IIIB will still be procured for a while alongside 09V initially at least.
Did they also mention anything about acoustic signature?
Isn't the normal PLAN practice to build 2 units of a vessel & test things out/work out the kinks, before entering higher volume production? If we think 3-4 additional units under construction is a "reasonable guess", does that imply there are already 1-2 units that have been operating for a while now?
No, apart from the "reduced acoustic signature" phrase from the above quoted statement.
No. There is only one 095 SSN that can be visually confirmed as of present, and it is in fact the first boat of the class.