Gulf countries have no influence over US and Israel. You got the power dynamics reversed.
2026 Israel - Iranian conflict [TEMP LOCKED]
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Gulf countries have no influence over US and Israel. You got the power dynamics reversed.
There is no regime change happening without ground invasion. If a protester even raises his head, he will be shot on sight. Death of Khamenei has energized the patriots inside Iran.
Israel and US have shown tactical prowess but extremely poor strategic thinking.
Iran will degrade Israel and its Arab allies so throughly this time that there could be regime change in gulf Arab countries instead. Those economies are not doing well either and have deeply hostile population wanting a less puppet govt.
Oh yes, the U.S. and Israel will keep attempting decapitation strikes and pushing for regime changes as long as the U.S. doesn't fully collapse in the future. Israel will run America dry until the last bit. We’ve already seen that pattern play out since the 12-day war. But what are the actual odds of them successfully ever neutralizing the regime or partitioning Iran?
In my view, they’re incredibly low. They’ll be forced to back off the moment they face the kind of fierce, sustained retaliation that Iran is already capable of enforcing. Basically, Israel will continue to look for moments to erode the US's overall capability for something that is not very likely to materialise, hoping for a sudden miracle change in Iran one day at the expense of the US.
they will, as always
plawolf
Lieutenant General
Khamenei’s death may be both less and more significant than what most people assesses, it could also offer a plausible explanation for both why the Israeli-American alpha strike was so lacklustre, and how the Iranian counter attacks were so swift and effective.
My hypothesis is that Khamenei concluded that a strike as inevitable, and chose to sacrifice himself to both blunt the effectiveness of the alpha strike, as well as to smooth the path of his chosen successor and give them massive popular support right across the ME.
Khamenei is an old man with not many years left, probably with a whole host of health issues and medical needs that comes with advanced age. When you are at that stage, survival stops becoming your overriding primary objective and you start to look to your legacy. I think Khamenei decided he would rather die a martyr in a literal blaze of glory than from illness or disease in some cave or be dragged out of a hole like a rat and killed by a mob.
It’s also plain to see that his judgement and choices have been catastrophically wrong in recent years that has cost Iran dearly, so there could also be an element of penance that would appear to his religious core.
If he had been struck in some literal cave or deep underground bunker, then that would have created more doubts about this theory. But to be hit in his main compound is what convinced me this was a deliberate sacrifice, as it would be literally too stupid otherwise to have such a meeting at such a place at such a time.
If you have made such a decision, then it opens up a lot of options previously unthinkable or impossible. The most obvious of which is to clear the deck of Iranian high command in a way even Khamenei could not do in life, as he is also subject to the realities of internal politics and faction power dynamics like every other ruler in history. There are limits to how many top people he could purge how quickly without risking all out civil war within Iran itself. But if he calls for a meeting of all the powerful figures within Iran who he would want to purge if he could do so without consequence, and let the Israelis and Americans know about the meeting, he can get his enemies to do his dirty work for him and Iran will come out of such a massive purge more United than ever before.
Such a move would not be beyond the imagination or even expectation of all the top players in Iran, so they would have been on guard for it. The only way to trick them into truly dropping their guard to be caught by such a move is by using Khamenei himself as assurance. That no one would be able to believe that anyone of their internal enemies would dare to put Khamenei himself at risk to get rid of little old me.
The way the meeting is leaked to Israel and America could also be used to confirm the loyalties of certain key individuals or prove their guilt if they then went and phoned home.
I think the reason the Israeli-American alpha strike was so limited was because they were probably a week or two from being fully ready, but the controlled leak of the Khamenei meeting was done to give them minimal reaction time, a truly now or never movement where they could either hit Khamenei and have little time for secondary targets, or risk missing the opportunity of a lifetime to take out what they thought was the entire Iranian senior leadership. And as expected, they took the bait and killed Khamenei and all the top leaders Khamenei wanted gone, while Khamenei true chosen successors were out in the field with missiles ready and targets all pre-planned out just waiting for news of the Israeli-American sneak attack to launch their own retaliations.
My hypothesis is that Khamenei concluded that a strike as inevitable, and chose to sacrifice himself to both blunt the effectiveness of the alpha strike, as well as to smooth the path of his chosen successor and give them massive popular support right across the ME.
Khamenei is an old man with not many years left, probably with a whole host of health issues and medical needs that comes with advanced age. When you are at that stage, survival stops becoming your overriding primary objective and you start to look to your legacy. I think Khamenei decided he would rather die a martyr in a literal blaze of glory than from illness or disease in some cave or be dragged out of a hole like a rat and killed by a mob.
It’s also plain to see that his judgement and choices have been catastrophically wrong in recent years that has cost Iran dearly, so there could also be an element of penance that would appear to his religious core.
If he had been struck in some literal cave or deep underground bunker, then that would have created more doubts about this theory. But to be hit in his main compound is what convinced me this was a deliberate sacrifice, as it would be literally too stupid otherwise to have such a meeting at such a place at such a time.
If you have made such a decision, then it opens up a lot of options previously unthinkable or impossible. The most obvious of which is to clear the deck of Iranian high command in a way even Khamenei could not do in life, as he is also subject to the realities of internal politics and faction power dynamics like every other ruler in history. There are limits to how many top people he could purge how quickly without risking all out civil war within Iran itself. But if he calls for a meeting of all the powerful figures within Iran who he would want to purge if he could do so without consequence, and let the Israelis and Americans know about the meeting, he can get his enemies to do his dirty work for him and Iran will come out of such a massive purge more United than ever before.
Such a move would not be beyond the imagination or even expectation of all the top players in Iran, so they would have been on guard for it. The only way to trick them into truly dropping their guard to be caught by such a move is by using Khamenei himself as assurance. That no one would be able to believe that anyone of their internal enemies would dare to put Khamenei himself at risk to get rid of little old me.
The way the meeting is leaked to Israel and America could also be used to confirm the loyalties of certain key individuals or prove their guilt if they then went and phoned home.
I think the reason the Israeli-American alpha strike was so limited was because they were probably a week or two from being fully ready, but the controlled leak of the Khamenei meeting was done to give them minimal reaction time, a truly now or never movement where they could either hit Khamenei and have little time for secondary targets, or risk missing the opportunity of a lifetime to take out what they thought was the entire Iranian senior leadership. And as expected, they took the bait and killed Khamenei and all the top leaders Khamenei wanted gone, while Khamenei true chosen successors were out in the field with missiles ready and targets all pre-planned out just waiting for news of the Israeli-American sneak attack to launch their own retaliations.
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That's an interesting theory. Another little detail to note (before this gets memory-holed): a diplomat from a mediating country (Oman perhaps?) stated publicly that Iran signaled that it is willing to accept zero-enrichment. Perhaps this is yet another test to see whether the US/Israel is serious about peace, & it also might have added to the sense of urgency on the part of the warmongers to carry out the strike you described above.
Iran needs that oil money. Iran needs parts and raw materials and parts covertly transfered by an oil tanker
Someone asked what is iran goal right now? Iran could be the liberators for the MidEast. They want US presences out of Mideast.
According to the reports I’ve read from the US side, they carried out 900 strikes in the first 12 hours. Israel carried out 500 strikes with over 200 aircraft, the largest air attack force Israel ever assembled against any country. In the same period, Iran fired 300 missiles.
If anything, it’s Iran’s response that was lackluster.
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