PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

[plawolf]

No American pressure will be able to persuade South Koreans that turning Seoul into the next Gaza is something they should want.

You do realised that South Korea’s military takes their orders from the Americans rather than their own elected President right? America doesn’t need to convince anyone in South Korea, it just needs to pick up a phone and give the order directly to South Korean troops who are training to follow American orders without question or hesitation.

 

[davidau]

You do realised that South Korea’s military takes their orders from the Americans rather than their own elected President right? America doesn’t need to convince anyone in South Korea, it just needs to pick up a phone and give the order directly to South Korean troops who are training to follow American orders without question or hesitation.

another lapdog of the yanks

 

[plawolf]

Japan has its own unique vulnerabilities: high debt, an aging population, and its industrial supply chains and trade heavily reliant on China. Should Japan choose to act recklessly, it would inevitably face enormous consequences.
To be honest, if Japan didn't have these vulnerabilities, China might truly be powerless against it. Unfortunately, Japan's current situation is not like that.

China will never be powerless against Japanese militarism and especially not any delusional nuclear aspersions in this day and age.

The PLAN’s entire modernisation efforts for the last generation has been squarely aimed at Japan. People just cannot see that because they cannot see past Taiwan. But the reality is that China has long since surpassed the critical mass needed to take Taiwan by force of arms even with direct American military intervention.

Taiwan is still a central mission, but who actually thinks the PLAN need carriers, LHAs and all those 052Ds never mind 055s for just Taiwan?

Japan has always been the stretch objective in a Taiwan scenario because it was inevitable that Japan would eagerly jump in as well as soon as America commits to the fight.

Not only would it make absolute strategic sense to take Japan out of the equation as an American staging area for continued attacks against China even after Taiwan is reunited to create a potential break point and end to open hostilities. But if Japan is once again involved in a war of aggression against China, Chinese public opinion would be almost certainty lead to significant internal unrest without a full and total invasion of the Japanese home islands.

All Takaichi is doing is making Chinese diplomats’ jobs incredibly easy to sell the necessity of the invasion to the non-western world.

 

[latenlazy]

You do realised that South Korea’s military takes their orders from the Americans rather than their own elected President right? America doesn’t need to convince anyone in South Korea, it just needs to pick up a phone and give the order directly to South Korean troops who are training to follow American orders without question or hesitation.

Highly doubt any South Korean general or soldier is so loyal to America they’ll choose to see their city glassed for absolutely no benefit, especially against the orders of their own government. Let’s not exaggerate here.

 

[plawolf]

Highly doubt any South Korean general or soldier is so loyal to America they’ll choose to see their city glassed for absolutely no benefit, especially against the orders of their own government. Let’s not exaggerate here.

That’s not how the military chain of command works. At all.

Question and refuse a direct order coming down the correct chain of command and you can continue the debate with a firing squad while your immediate successor carry out the order.

 

[FriedRiceNSpice]

Highly doubt any South Korean general or soldier is so loyal to America they’ll choose to see their city glassed for absolutely no benefit, especially against the orders of their own government. Let’s not exaggerate here.

Only the highest level generals would have the ability to discern what is actually happening- and those are the ones that would have already been bought by the Americans.

 

[latenlazy]

Only the highest level generals would have the ability to discern what is actually happening- and those are the ones that would have already been bought by the Americans.

Pretty sure if China is firing at Taiwan and Korea is asked to mobilize *everyone* will know what is happening.

That’s not how the military chain of command works. At all.

Question and refuse a direct order coming down the correct chain of command and you can continue the debate with a firing squad while your immediate successor carry out the order.

Would very much like to see the US do a firing squad of South Korean generals for refusing to get involved in a fight that would have glassed Seoul lol. Let’s be realistic and not write fanfic here.

 

[siegecrossbow]

Highly doubt any South Korean general or soldier is so loyal to America they’ll choose to see their city glassed for absolutely no benefit, especially against the orders of their own government. Let’s not exaggerate here.

Not really their choice to make though. You may not like what your manager makes you do but until you find a new job, you are gonna do what he says.

 

[plawolf]

Would very much like to see the US do a firing squad of South Korean generals for refusing to get involved in a fight that would have glassed Seoul lol. Let’s be realistic and not write fanfic here.

You think America has all those troops in South Korea for just the brothels?

If and when the order comes, it won’t be delivered by just a runner. It’s going to be delivered by an America general that technically outranks all the non-Americans in the chain, and he won’t be walking into the command centre unarmed or alone.

The Americans are also not stupid and will not be issuing the attack order out of the blue as the very first order. It will be child’s play to start with something incontestable and relatively benign, like put all troops on alert, scramble alert fighters and prep the rest for immediate take off with full combat loads. Get the pieces in position and people moving and training and inertia will do the heavy lifting from there.

To refuse is to die, potentially right there on the spot. So unless you think the entire South Korea military is going to instantly mutiny wholesale as soon as actual combat orders are issued and get into firefights en mass with the Americans, there is little scope for them to be able to disobey or for individual disobedience to amount to much more than arrests or immediate public executions to prove a point and cow the rest.

This is the fucking military we are talking about. Not a country club. Direct orders from the correct chain of command that are legal per the standing rules cannot be questioned no matter how much you might want to or it doesn’t work at all.

 

[latenlazy]

Not really their choice to make though. You may not like what your manager makes you do but until you find a new job, you are gonna do what he says.

Technically they’re on the payroll of the Korean government, not the American government.

You think America has all those troops in South Korea for just the brothels?

If and when the order comes, it won’t be delivered by just a runner. It’s going to be delivered by an America general that technically outranks all the non-Americans in the chain, and he won’t be walking into the command centre unarmed or alone.

The Americans are also not stupid and will not be issuing the attack order out of the blue as the very first order. It will be child’s play to start with something incontestable and relatively benign, like put all troops on alert, scramble alert fighters and prep the rest for immediate take off with full combat loads. Get the pieces in position and people moving and training and inertia will do the heavy lifting from there.

To refuse is to die, potentially right there on the spot. So unless you think the entire South Korea military is going to instantly mutiny wholesale as soon as actual combat orders are issued and get into firefights en mass with the Americans, there is little scope for them to be able to disobey or for individual disobedience to amount to much more than arrests or immediate public executions to prove a point and cow the rest.

A slow walk mobilization might as well be non participation over a fight for Taiwan. It’s not like an initial mobilization won’t trigger direct crisis with North Korea either. If America wants to also fight North Korea when its supposed goal is securing Taiwan they’re free to try and find out. Doubt the Pentagon is *that* stupid though. Ultimately part of the point here is that for the US to get any use out of South Korea South Korea kinda needs to survive first.

This is the fucking military we are talking about. Not a country club. Direct orders from the correct chain of command that are legal per the standing rules cannot be questioned no matter how much you might want to or it doesn’t work at all.

*Legally* speaking South Korea’s military chain of command is under the South Korean government, not the Pentagon. In order for chain of command to be transferred the South Korean government has to give formal approval first. Again, maybe cool the hyperbolic rhetoric a bit?