2026 Israel - Iranian conflict [TEMP LOCKED]
- Thread starter doggydogdo
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From mainland China? Not feasible at all. It's outright out of reach of effective operations, especially if you want to perform def-ca.
It's either ground deployment, or navy. But for ground it's too late already.
Best thing China/Russia can realistically provide is remote sensing, and in principle this can prove to be enough.
The funniest potential thing to do, however, wouldn't even be China's help. The funniest thing is out of ME countries, Qatar and Jordan happen to be two with commercial starlink available...
Depends were US naval assets are:
I Would say that the Persian Gulf, the red, is a death zone. Everything there has a high probability of being hit by Iranian Anti-ship missiles like the Noor. Different from the Argentinians dependency of France Exocet, the Iranians have their production of these missiles
In the yellow zone I think the threats go down but still is a very big risk. A single missile is not going to do much but a saturation attack could be problematic to say the least. A salvo of missiles and drones could overwhelm the air defenses and it only takes one hit of these to do serious damage. Plus add to that Iran boats and submarines armed with anti-ship missiles and torpedoes. Of course it would be difficult for the Iranians but not impossible. Also these threats are forcing the US to operate from a larger distance increasing the operational cost and increasing fatigue. There is also the risk that the Russians and probably even the Chinese are giving Iran real time intelligence that Iranians could use for targeting.
None of the Gulf states are going to participate or give too much support. So whatever assets the US have in their ships and far off bases that may or may not be outside the range of Iran ballistic missiles is what they have and will get depleted over time. The combat capabilities of both the US and the Iranians will downgrade over time but the issue is that the Iranians are in their home and the US is far away.
Don´t get me wrong, the US has, at least at the beginning have an overwhelming advantage in firepower, especially air power and they will do damage. But they are taking a big risk in Iran, given the country size, terrain, the way the US is going to fight the war and Iran capacity of producing their own weaponry. As I always say, countries with functional Military Industrial Complexes are countries that should be feared more than countries that just import weapons.
There is some confirmation that the USS Gerald R. Ford has arrived at the Port of Haifa, Israel.
Furthermore, the Israeli newspaper Maariv, citing Western media reports, announced that a large number of crew members and military personnel from the aircraft carrier Gerald Ford, which was sent to the Mediterranean on Trump's orders, expressed their dissatisfaction with the extension of their mission and threatened that they would not continue serving in the Navy after their return.
Furthermore, the Israeli newspaper Maariv, citing Western media reports, announced that a large number of crew members and military personnel from the aircraft carrier Gerald Ford, which was sent to the Mediterranean on Trump's orders, expressed their dissatisfaction with the extension of their mission and threatened that they would not continue serving in the Navy after their return.
Obviously they are coming for Turkey and Egypt next. They won’t be satisfied until Ahkand Israel is a reality.
The Epstein file implicating MBZ was released just one day after he announced that UAE will not provide US access to its space for an attack on Iran. So, UAE is probably going to allow it.
Explains the India-Europe fta deal.
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Looks like Northern Cyprus, held by Turkey, is next.
I don't think they can take Turkyie unless they finish the Egyptian side on their border, They will want to finish the ethnic cleansing of course, Egypt industrial ability is weaker than Turkyie, they're not a NATO member so there'll be less problems if israel attacks.
They can consider making a move with Greece in Cyprus against Turkyie, they'll have support from USA, UK, France, Germany,...etc. And NATO members can argue that this incident doesn't count for applying Article 5.
Egypt military growth is not happening fast enough, but Israel's war against Egypt won't end fast, and Israel won't be able to decide when it ends as they like.
Nevertheless, if Israel moved against Turkish Cyprus with Greece, Egypt should join Turkyie, even though i think it'll be difficult because of their current capabilities, and the logic that "if we intervened, then USA will join actively with Israel against us" therefore they maybe coerced & deterred by US power. So they'll need to have the initiative for that, and that's difficult to happen because of their capabilities.
They can consider making a move with Greece in Cyprus against Turkyie, they'll have support from USA, UK, France, Germany,...etc. And NATO members can argue that this incident doesn't count for applying Article 5.
Egypt military growth is not happening fast enough, but Israel's war against Egypt won't end fast, and Israel won't be able to decide when it ends as they like.
Nevertheless, if Israel moved against Turkish Cyprus with Greece, Egypt should join Turkyie, even though i think it'll be difficult because of their current capabilities, and the logic that "if we intervened, then USA will join actively with Israel against us" therefore they maybe coerced & deterred by US power. So they'll need to have the initiative for that, and that's difficult to happen because of their capabilities.
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