State of the Union on the 26th is probably playing a role. Whatever he wants it to be an MAGA rally or to be about Iran. It could also get overshadowed by Iran or something badly happens over Iran and turns the SOTU into an awkward speech.
2026 Israel - Iranian conflict [TEMP LOCKED]
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State of the Union on the 26th is probably playing a role. Whatever he wants it to be an MAGA rally or to be about Iran. It could also get overshadowed by Iran or something badly happens over Iran and turns the SOTU into an awkward speech.
SteelBird
Colonel
I read that Trump gives Iran 10 - 15 days to sign something meaningful. I fear fighting may erupt sooner, 5 days or 1 week. We'll have another warring thread soon.
Obviously it is within Israel’s interest to remove the last thorn from the Middle East. They’ve completely exposed themselves after Oct. 7th and there is no guarantee of continued American support when the boomers and Gen X die off. To ensure a safe future they have to completely cuckify the Middle East and North Africa.
Ideal scenario for Israel would be regime change to a friendly monarchy. Less ideal would be change to a liberal democracy. Even less ideal would be Iran falling into disarray and civil war Syria style, but it is tolerable. Worst case scenario would be a repeat of the Venezuela thing. You bomb the hell out of them and even possibly remove one or several heads of state, but not the regime. In a couple of decades or years they will rearm and try again. Unlike Iran or the Arabs, Israel can only afford to lose once.
Iran is sort of pivotal thou, it's the reason US ju can't disengage from ME. In a way, Iran did more than even Russia in covering China's naval expansion.
But after death of Soleimani, they just started making misstep after misstep.
What was “pivotal” in the landscape of the 2000s is a lot more irrelevant today’s landscape.
solarz
Brigadier
Realistically, there are only two possibilities: either the Iranian regime survives, or they go into hiding like the Taliban and then come back after the US leaves.
But US are still tied there and they still fail to pivot to Asia.
Look at US Navy for example: first actual items of pivot to Asia, hyperzumwalts, are only entering service; most important single item - Constellations, won't come for years and has already failed.
By contrast, USN still adds LCS ships which are largely irrelevant for Westpac.
Basically, Iran tied US attention and inertia for long enough to let PLAN emerge as a peer. And with some luck, should we find that Iranians took June lessons to heart, US won't be able to extricate themselves out, but will get stuck deeper instead.
I.e. Iran for US is that hinge they are just stuck on. Pivoting and pivoting for a whole decade.
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I don’t think starting a war here will finally free the US from being tied down in a Middle East.
The Middle East wars arent really about the US or US interests. This isnt even about Nuclear program or regime change. This will be Syria/Libya/Lebanon hybrid playbook.
Iran didnt fire when it had the loaded gun. They didnt do shit when they could've sprint for the only true deterrent. They just lack the testicular fortitude. They've massively misread the situation repeatedly for decades.
Im also amazed at the hopium that Iran can inflict any lasting damage to its main adversary. Same hopium carried on how indigenous militias can counter the colonists, same hopium on how Putin is holding back from walking all over in Ukraine. Some of our friends here need to wake up and get real.
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Freeing, no, but Iran is indeed the last hostile power center here to speak of.
Certainly one drawing fighting power (one utterly incompatible with what u need for Westpac) and not just a few policing FFXs and Natsec cutters.
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