H-20 bomber (with H-X, JH-XX)

[Wrought]

The progress of this thread over the past year is remarkable in its absence.

After all the completely unhinged speculation about exotic supersonic whatever shapes, I look forward to seeing a normal subsonic flying wing.

H-20 bomber (with H-X, JH-XX)

After discussion with Deino, we have agreed to reintegrate the previously separated posts back with the H-20 thread. However, this is done predicated on a few key things. 1) The recent discussion about the idea of a "revised H-20" based on being able to internally carry a couple of JL-1 sized...

www.sinodefenceforum.com

 

[Maikeru]

I suspect one role for GJ-X will be as stealthy tanker for H-20 ops against CONUS. This combined with long range missiles of whatever kinds make it feasable for conventional strikes on high value targets possibly.

 

[polati]

Could it be that the reason for the H-20 taking so lonf is the development of some sort of active defensive systems, like some laser APS / DIRCMs or a mini VLS cell to shoot down incoming missiles should it be detected? A subsonic stealth bomber has very low observability but not much survivability when spotted and tracked, but this could solve the issue instead of relying on supersonic speed?

 

[gwel]

The overall consensus seems to be that H-20 will look something like a B-2, a flying wing, subsonic, very low radar crosssection.
But ... does that actually make sense anymore? Maybe it started out as such, but considering how heavily china has worked to build a dense sensor network to negate the stealth of US platforms, using power increases of AESA radars with new gallium technologies, satellite networks using bistatic, forward scatter and high-res SAR, combined with optical sensors and image recognition neural nets, + VHF / UHF HALE AWACS drones ...

Does china still bet on stealth? Or do they expect their own stealth platforms to loose the stealth advantage soon with the US replicating their counter-stealth efforts?
The J-36 is clearly a design of high kinematic capability, where they value the speed and range to dash out to choose the engagement.
Do they maybe think that an H-20 platform with B-2 / B-21 tier capabilities would lack the kinematics for survival?

I find it hard to believe that the Chinese would believe a subsonic bomber could fly to CONUS and drop a bomb there undetected.
One could reasonably assume that any high value asset will be real-time monitored by a satellite network in the not too near future.
I am not saying they're building a supersonic bomber, maybe they're not building any bomber as a result of such a conclusion.

 

[Tomboy]

I find it hard to believe that the Chinese would believe a subsonic bomber could fly to CONUS and drop a bomb there undetected.
One could reasonably assume that any high value asset will be real-time monitored by a satellite network in the not too near future.
I am not saying they're building a supersonic bomber, maybe they're not building any bomber as a result of such a conclusion.

Technically, all H-20 will ever have to do in case of a nuclear strike is fly to 1000-2000km off the coast of CONUS and launch long range HCM with nuclear tipped warheads. By the time it comes to when nuclear strike is necessary, it doesn't really matter if US know when or where H-20 takes off or not as long as they can't intercept them enroute before they launch missiles.

The point of H-20 (and similar stragetic platforms like a CVN) is also partially about politics and forcing US to spend a lot more resources on fortifying CONUS and be on the defensive as a response. I doubt H-20 will ever really be a primary method of nuclear delivery given how much China has invested in land based and sea based second strike options but atleast it'll probably live rent free in the minds of American war planners.

 

[mister unknown]

Technically, all H-20 will ever have to do in case of a nuclear strike is fly to 1000-2000km off the coast of CONUS and launch long range HCM with nuclear tipped warheads. By the time it comes to when nuclear strike is necessary, it doesn't really matter if US know when or where H-20 takes off or not as long as they can't intercept them enroute before they launch missiles.

The point of H-20 (and similar stragetic platforms like a CVN) is also partially about politics and forcing US to spend a lot more resources on fortifying CONUS and be on the defensive as a response. I doubt H-20 will ever really be a primary method of nuclear delivery given how much China has invested in land based and sea based second strike options but atleast it'll probably live rent free in the minds of American war planners.

It's also useful to note that such a bomber also has the conventional capability to rain missiles on any US asset in the so-called "Indo-Pacific" theater.

Stealth in this day & age might not be survivable all the way up to CONUS, but there are plenty of areas in which a low-observable heavy bomber loaded with hypersonic missiles can do a lot of good.

 

[tamsen_ikard]

It's also useful to note that such a bomber also has the conventional capability to rain missiles on any US asset in the so-called "Indo-Pacific" theater.

Stealth in this day & age might not be survivable all the way up to CONUS, but there are plenty of areas in which a low-observable heavy bomber loaded with hypersonic missiles can do a lot of good.

Pacific ocean is huge. There is no way US can detect H20 once it goes past the first island chain and is flying in the deep ocean. They cannot cover the entire pacific with their paltry navy.

H20 can get close to US west coast and launch its missiles. The only question is the range. H20 needs to be much larger than the B2 to be able to carry enough fuel to get to CONUS, launch its missiles and come back reasonably close so that Chinese refueling tankers can resupply it.

My speculation is that, the biggest challenge that China is facing for H20 is the size issue. If China simply wanted replicate the B2, they probably would have done it already. But because H20 needs to be much bigger than the B2, to be able carry enough fuel, its causing all sorts of tech bottlenecks.

 

[mister unknown]

Pacific ocean is huge. There is no way US can detect H20 once it goes past the first island chain and is flying in the deep ocean. They cannot cover the entire pacific with their paltry navy.

H20 can get close to US west coast and launch its missiles. The only question is the range. H20 needs to be much larger than the B2 to be able to carry enough fuel to get to CONUS, launch its missiles and come back reasonably close so that Chinese refueling tankers can resupply it.

My speculation is that, the biggest challenge that China is facing for H20 is the size issue. If China simply wanted replicate the B2, they probably would have done it already. But because H20 needs to be much bigger than the B2, to be able carry enough fuel, its causing all sorts of tech bottlenecks.

Just to clarify, I'm not altogether dismissing the possibility of H-20s penetrating US air defenses & hitting CONUS, I'm just saying even if that mission becomes more difficult down the road due to potential US advances, there's still plenty of use cases for the PLAAF in which an H-20 like bomber can still take advantage of its large payload & low observability features.

 

[tamsen_ikard]

Just to clarify, I'm not altogether dismissing the possibility of H-20s penetrating US air defenses & hitting CONUS, I'm just saying even if that mission becomes more difficult down the road due to potential US advances, there's still plenty of use cases for the PLAAF in which an H-20 like bomber can still take advantage of its large payload & low observability features.

I am not talking about H20 "penetrating US landmass itself", that is too risky and not necessary. They just need to get close, fire their hypersonic missiles from the ocean, and then return. Depending on the range of the missile they can carry, they can probably get as close as 200 KM from US coast and launch their missiles.

 

[mister unknown]

I am not talking about H20 "penetrating US landmass itself", that is too risky and not necessary. They just need to get close, fire their hypersonic missiles from the ocean, and then return. Depending on the range of the missile they can carry, they can probably get as close as 200 KM from US coast and launch their missiles.

I understand, that's why I said "penetrate US air defenses & hitting CONUS". I didn't imply that we need to fly over CONUS itself & drop glide bombs.

I get that we'd be launching missiles at a very standoff distance.