2026 Israel - Iranian conflict [TEMP LOCKED]

[PopularScience]

Will iran mine the strait of hormuz?

 

[brock]

Many pro Iranian and other analysts on Carl Zha or Danny Haiphong channel said US cannot defeat Iran's regime. We will see.

Iran has a landmass 3.5-4x larger than Iraq and 2x population. If the Iranian leaders are smart, they need to go underground and hide.

Iran can still survive with China buying their oil. The trade total is about 40 billion/year. That is alot of money for military

+ The same rough terrain as Aghanistan

 

[Randomuser]

Some say they are timing the attack with when the stock market is closed. So it could be quite soon. Keep your eyes open.

 

[FriedButter]

Either this week or next week.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2024500620909072757

 

[BlackWindMnt]

Many pro Iranian and other analysts on Carl Zha or Danny Haiphong channel said US cannot defeat Iran's regime. We will see.

Iran has a landmass 3.5-4x larger than Iraq and 2x population. If the Iranian leaders are smart, they need to go underground and hide.

Iran can still survive with China buying their oil. The trade total is about 40 billion/year. That is alot of money for military

The only one that can lose Iran are the Iranian elites, the coming weeks will show which faction will win out in Iran. You could give Iran all the tech you want but if the elite are going to behave like Syria Elites did when Isreal bombed every AA defence platform in the country or how the Venezuelan government elites acted post Maduro kidnap.

Don't forget Carl Zha and Danny gathered their audiences by being anti US.
But how it looks right now the US is on a winning streak, and BRICS is losing.
So i'm not so sure Iran the pro western factions might just open the gates and welcome the US.

 

[tamsen_ikard]

This "will they attack or not" drama has gone for too long, enough is enough. US just do it already!! I want to see a resolution to this crisis one way or another.

I really am interested to see how much Iran has to withstand US attacks and how much they can hit back.

 

[Gloire_bb]

The only one that can lose Iran are the Iranian elites, the coming weeks will show which faction will win out in Iran. You could give Iran all the tech you want but if the elite are going to behave like Syria Elites did when Isreal bombed every AA defence platform in the country or how the Venezuelan government elites acted post Maduro kidnap.

Ugh, as June has shown, this is simply not the case.
Iran lost bitterly to Israeli air power alone at its strongest, and among other things this was a tech problem.
Iranian air defense, which is a crux for everything else operating efficiently:
-Can't interfere with westpac space capabilities. At all. As it appears, they didn't even consider it;
-Can't do C-UAS at all, and only reeecently, after multiple painful strikes, staaarted to move towards systemic PGM intercept;
-Failed to introduce survivable/unsupressable S/A system, despite exactly such system showcased by Ukraine;
-Took ages to start procurement of relevant air component, without slightest sense of urgency;
-Started really,really late with ABM effort - effectively reliant on few Ru S-300PMU2 batteries(not much ABM in the first place) and semi-experimental(and, again, extravagant) Arman.

and so on and so forth. At the same time, since late 2010s, Iranian AD procurement started looking rich - they started introducing very extravagant systems, as if job's done and mainstay of their air defense is not damn Hawk.

All in all, Iran did prepare for stealth threat - but it did so,barely, on 2005-2015 level, not 2015-2025 one. And it sort of forgot everything else - and was disassambled in many cases (un)fair and square, just because there are huge gaps in its preparation. Not even details, not missed new developments; entire capability sets which are known to everyone for decades or more.

 

[Gloire_bb]

This "will they attack or not" drama has gone for too long, enough is enough. US just do it already!! I want to see a resolution to this crisis one way or another.

I really am interested to see how much Iran has to withstand US attacks and how much they can hit back.

This isn't a show really. Simplest way for US to collapse Iranian government is post-1991 style humanitarian catastrophe, which will erode political system out.
Which means, tens/hundreds of thousands will die from direct and indirect consequences, again in best US practices from pax americana.

 

[tamsen_ikard]

This isn't a show really. Simplest way for US to collapse Iranian government is post-1991 style humanitarian catastrophe, which will erode political system out.
Which means, tens/hundreds of thousands will die from direct and indirect consequences, again in best US practices from pax americana.

I don't know if I should feel sad for Iranian public though, cause they specifically asked for US to attack Iran. This whole protest movement was fueled to deliberately create a crisis and also create a pretext for US to attack Iran.

Iranian regime also made too many mistakes and trusted US too many times. So I don't know if I should feel sad for them either.

At this point the war is inevitable. But, what is uncertain is how much Iran can fight back. If they fight back hard, they can shorten the war and also shorten the destruction they face.

 

[zyklon]

This is a bit of a surprise, especially considering the weight and influence of Britain's Israel lobby.

According to The Times, which is generally considered a local newspaper of record, the British government is denying the US military access to UK bases — including Diego Garcia — for the upcoming round of strikes against Iran.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2024481833035944355

Some highlights from The Times

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in question:

In a rift with Washington, the prime minister is understood to have told Trump that the UK would not allow the use of British facilities at Diego Garcia and RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire, which is home to America’s fleet of heavy bombers in Europe.

Government sources said the UK was not likely to support a pre-emptive military strike, after a similar refusal to participate in the president’s attack on Iranian nuclear facilities last summer.

Trump has been told by defence officials that his country will be ready for war by Saturday after the largest US military build-up in the region since 2003, when America went to war in Iraq.

The Times understands that the UK is concerned that allowing the US to use the bases would be a breach of international law, which makes no distinction between a state carrying out the attack and those in support if the latter have “knowledge of the circumstances of the internationally wrongful act”.