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[Gloire_bb]

They really should have scaled back on the ambition and self delusion about being attacked by China and Pakistan and just work on itself. Take a step back but commit 100% to domestic.

They sort of tried. But first, it was impossible(engine? radar?), second, even constructor took one more decade.
They only have LCA now, and that LCA is dependant on US.

The only way for India to keep its structure in current environment and at current state of industry is thoroughly diversify - which they do.
(Russia - US - France - Israel).

MKI upgrade would be a Su-35 basically. With the R-37M, it would be Rafale with Meteor level capability but at 1/5 the cost.

MKI and Rafale are more of complementary pair rather than competitors. Especially b/c MKI is a rather dated airframe, it doesn't really go into full 4.5 gen aircraft areas all that well.
Furthermore, until recent announcement of 177 engine, frankly speaking MKI had no viable path forward to become a fully capable frontline platform. 2nd line - sure, absolutely.

Eventual picture - quarterback(su-57) - mainline heavy/support(MKI) - omnirole frontline medium(Rafale) - LCA(intercept/light bomber), - does make sense. Both in its entirety and if some component falls out.

 

[ougoah]

If 20 J-10's are enough for 36 Rafales, 20 J-35's are also enough for 100+ Rafales...

Indeed. We know this but this also has little relevance to why China would sell Pakistan J-35 given the security risk, risk of destabilising the region and pissing India off and potentially pushing it to do stupid shit because it has some really stupid leaders and it has an uncanny ability to silence intelligent and reasonable Indians.

To balance India's 100+ Rafale acquisition, supply Pakistan with J-35 when those Rafales start serving in IAF. Make India commit to a losing hand first.

 

[Aegrotare]

Not again ... India demands this and that!

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These guys really have no clue what their role is and what they're entitled to demand!

It's truly embarrassing... and in the end, Dassault is supposed to guarantee the quality of the planes built in India by Indians, but they're not allowed any on-site access, and it all starts again.

It's so reminiscent of "Groundhog Day"!

No wonder Dassault is so force full on Fcas, with a deal like that lined up it all makes sense.

 

[ougoah]

They sort of tried. But first, it was impossible(engine? radar?), second, even constructor took one more decade.
They only have LCA now, and that LCA is dependant on US.

The only way for India to keep its structure in current environment and at current state of industry is thoroughly diversify - which they do.
(Russia - US - France - Israel).

MKI and Rafale are more of complementary pair rather than competitors. Especially b/c MKI is a rather dated airframe, it doesn't really go into full 4.5 gen aircraft areas all that well.
Furthermore, until recent announcement of 177 engine, frankly speaking MKI had no viable path forward to become a fully capable frontline platform. 2nd line - sure, absolutely.

Eventual picture - quarterback(su-57) - mainline heavy/support(MKI) - omnirole frontline medium(Rafale) - LCA(intercept/light bomber), - does make sense. Both in its entirety and if some component falls out.

MKI upgrade would still be much more limited than Rafale certainly. I was more emphasising the air superiority BVR role where RCS matters a little less. With AESA upgrade and R-37M, a "Super MKI" Would be pretty much equal in BVR air superiority as Rafale. Where Rafale would be stealthier than MKI, the MKI carries more and flies further/longer.

Rafale is far more capable than upgraded MKI but they really don't need much more anti-surface advantage over Pakistan so the ability to strike effectively is pretty much a given. It's India's inability to take air superiority that is a greater issue for IAF and withing the scope of fighter upgrades/acquisition.

Yes, higher level view, those two platforms are absolutely complementary and MKI upgrade is not a substitute or alternative to Rafale. It's just that it should be a concurrent if not a prioritised action for IAF rather than fresh Rafale acquisition.

 

[zyklon]

Not again ... India demands this and that!

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These guys really have no clue what their role is and what they're entitled to demand!

It's truly embarrassing... and in the end, Dassault is supposed to guarantee the quality of the planes built in India by Indians, but they're not allowed any on-site access, and it all starts again.

It's so reminiscent of "Groundhog Day"!

At this point, the Indian authorities should know that the market for modern fighter jets is a "seller's market" and not a "buyer's market," or so we'd hope.

Indian officials are most likely publicizing what they portray as

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demands — on the French government, Dassault and its Tier 1s — to "look tough" in front of domestic audiences.

However, bluntly speaking, New Delhi is either going to get additional Rafales on Paris' terms, or no additional Rafales at all.

Given the

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between the US and India, the only alternative to the Rafale — assuming India wants airframes delivered by the early or even mid-2030s — would be the Russian Su-57.

Problem is going with Sukhoi will not only upset multiple European capitals, but will more likely than not induce Congress and/or Trump to terminate India's access to the

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, which could make for the final nail in the coffin for the LCA Tejas program.

To be fair, that wouldn't necessarily be a bad outcome for the IAF, even if it'll bruise some Indian egos. However, with only bad and worse choices on the table, the Indian government may, as it often does, find its domestic stakeholders unable to agree on a path forward.

 

[sequ]

MKI upgrade would be a Su-35 basically. With the R-37M, it would be Rafale with Meteor level capability but at 1/5 the cost.

LOL no.

Rafale with its puny radar could never detect PAF fighters at the ranges it got shot at, let alone track and engage them. An upgraded MKI with R-37M could, which would at least even the playing field while they could work on indignous radars and missiles (which they are doing atm) for the MKI.

MKI was great in 2005-2015 but it needs upgrades to stay relevant. It's worse than Su-34 in ground attack and worse than Su-35 in the air domain.

The Flanker is a great platform, granted it's being kept updated. An upgraded MKI with Virupaaksha radar, Astra Mk3 and more powerful engines can only reliably be countered with a 5th gen fighter.

 

[mack8]

After Feb '19 they should've done the following:

1. Russian upgrade of MKI with better radar+ R-37M (in time for May '25)
2. Buy more AWACS as stopgap (preferably Russian)
3. Get back into Su-57 program.

I'd say the downfall of IAF really started with the MMRCA contest, they chose Rafale back then so should have pushed forward with getting 126 of them, then get the extra 64-74 optional planes as MiG-35s (itself having commonality with MiG-29K and UPG thus helping integration and logistics) to quickly build up numbers, so almost 200 airframes that would have helped a long way to reduce IAFs number woes.

Then as you say, as a stopgap until the Super-30 upgrade is ready get at least part of the MKI fleet upgraded to SM2 standard with R-37 and whatever indian systems ready and that could be integrated.

Finally, the current 114 planes program should have been Su-57, the only logical and available choice both political and capability wise.

If they'd done the above not only 2019 would have been dicier for PAF (with Rafales and MiG-35s around rather than MiG-21UPGs), but 2025 would have bee a closer run clash too.

 

[Gloire_bb]

MKI upgrade would still be much more limited than Rafale certainly. I was more emphasising the air superiority BVR role where RCS matters a little less. With AESA upgrade and R-37M, a "Super MKI" Would be pretty much equal in BVR air superiority as Rafale. Where Rafale would be stealthier than MKI, the MKI carries more and flies further/longer.

Su-30MKI, like almost any flanker sans E and likely J-15B, is a roadside lightpole in terms of RCS. Even with updated jammer(ISPJ) it won't be quite there, those are ultimately related metrics.
Unless 177-ied (which is not a commercial proposal off the shelf just yet), is underpowered. Significantly.
Su-30MKI doesn't quite match Rafale in strike options array, and overall is directed in a different direction(stand off "javelin thrower").
Finally, like most flankers, Su-30MKI doesn't like low altitude flight all that much.

Rafale is far more capable than upgraded MKI but they really don't need much more anti-surface advantage over Pakistan so the ability to strike effectively is pretty much a given. It's India's inability to take air superiority that is a greater issue for IAF and withing the scope of fighter upgrades/acquisition.

Is it though? Indian prime strike right now is Jaguars and Mirages(not exactly in their prime even with LLU upgrades). Indian medium weight fighter is mig-29upg, which is f-16 blk50 equal and nothing more than that - and their remaining life after MLU is also not that long.
This part of the fleet needs replacement.
As for air superiority - ultimately, all upgrades and new procurement contribute to that...

Yes, higher level view, those two platforms are absolutely complementary and MKI upgrade is not a substitute or alternative to Rafale. It's just that it should be a concurrent if not a prioritised action for IAF rather than fresh Rafale acquisition.

They tried "make in India" instead of paying Sukhoi, tried(and still try) really hard. Good intentions paving road to hell.
Tbf, Sukhoi doesn't have an immediate good "off the shelf" upgrade for Su-30MKI either; Su-30SM2 is a rather cheap upgrade of a very secondary(as for Russia) aircraft).
For India, on the other hand, it's their all - heavy fighter with largest sensor, strategic deterrence(brahmos), stand off strike(rampage), escort EW(SAP-14). They need a lot.

Rafale with its puny radar could never detect PAF fighters at the ranges it got shot at, let alone track and engage them.

Rafale RBE2 has more or less similar detection range as Bars, and it's fully sufficient v respectable 3m RCS target.
Let's limit this "puny", it isn't a mig-21 radar after all. It's AESA, liquid cooled and larger than one on JF-17. Whatever problem Indians had in may, it isn't radar.

 

[ougoah]

LOL no.

Rafale with its puny radar could never detect PAF fighters at the ranges it got shot at, let alone track and engage them. An upgraded MKI with R-37M could, which would at least even the playing field while they could work on indignous radars and missiles (which they are doing atm) for the MKI.

MKI was great in 2005-2015 but it needs upgrades to stay relevant. It's worse than Su-34 in ground attack and worse than Su-35 in the air domain.

The Flanker is a great platform, granted it's being kept updated. An upgraded MKI with Virupaaksha radar, Astra Mk3 and more powerful engines can only reliably be countered with a 5th gen fighter.

Yeah and this is assuming Russia and India can engineer and produce that level of electronic technology. Of the two, only Russia has (and only relatively recently with the Byelka) have produced and put into service a 1st generation fighter AESA.

The way you're describing this hypothetical Flanker is akin to a J-16 later block or J-15T. Those are on generation 2 or 3 AESA and certainly both of those fighters being produced right now use GaN based AESA if not GaN on SiC AESA, which would make them gen 3/4 Chinese AESA.

France absolutely has superior avionics/electronic technology compared to India and Russia. Yes Rafale's RBE is aged but larger radar does not mean better when that larger hypothetical Flanker radar would be at best a gen 1 first attempt at fighter AESA by India or Russia' Byelka level.

 

[ougoah]

Su-30MKI, like almost any flanker sans E and likely J-15B, is a roadside lightpole in terms of RCS. Even with updated jammer(ISPJ) it won't be quite there, those are ultimately related metrics.
Unless 177-ied (which is not a commercial proposal off the shelf just yet), is underpowered. Significantly.
Su-30MKI doesn't quite match Rafale in strike options array, and overall is directed in a different direction(stand off "javelin thrower").
Finally, like most flankers, Su-30MKI doesn't like low altitude flight all that much.

Is it though? Indian prime strike right now is Jaguars and Mirages(not exactly in their prime even with LLU upgrades). Indian medium weight fighter is mig-29upg, which is f-16 blk50 equal and nothing more than that - and their remaining life after MLU is also not that long.
This part of the fleet needs replacement.
As for air superiority - ultimately, all upgrades and new procurement contribute to that...

They tried "make in India" instead of paying Sukhoi, tried(and still try) really hard. Good intentions paving road to hell.
Tbf, Sukhoi doesn't have an immediate good "off the shelf" upgrade for Su-30MKI either; Su-30SM2 is a rather cheap upgrade of a very secondary(as for Russia) aircraft).
For India, on the other hand, it's their all - heavy fighter with largest sensor, strategic deterrence(brahmos), stand off strike(rampage), escort EW(SAP-14). They need a lot.

Rafale RBE2 has more or less similar detection range as Bars, and it's fully sufficient respectable v 3m RCS target.
Let's limit this "puny", it isn't a mig-21 radar after all. It's AESA, water cooled and larger than one on JF-17. Whatever problem Indians had in may, it isn't radar.

Agree that MKI is needed more than Rafales. It should be the backbone of a more effective IAF. Upgraded MKI of course. Problem is like you said, they don't have much of an upgrade path. Russia cannot provide India with an effective enough radar upgrade when it's own is falling so far behind the leading edge for just 4.5 gen radars let alone compete with 5th gen fighter radars.

If Russia could, they'd be equipping the Su-35 with such a radar. Why they don't take the Byelka and iterate for Su-35 is a wonder. Irbis was okay to maybe good but it's 2026 not 2016.

Rafale can fill this role of being India's "all" but it is a medium fighter. It has SCALP and Meteor. Any future upgrade for Rafale taking advantage of French MIC (which is superior to Russia's these days) would give them a better sensor. Air launched Brahmos is still going to be on Su-30MKI but it can already do that. There's no upgrade need when your Rafales are paving the way and escorting your outdated MKIs. They can certainly make Rafale take over that "all" role. Only issue is limited range compared to MKI and of course payload. No fighter beats Flanker (and Eagle) payload until J-36.