What choice do they have at this point?
They're commited to Rafale, and they're desperate for actual certainty of numbers.
Indian Military News, Reports, Data, etc.
- Thread starter bd popeye
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They're commited to Rafale, and they're desperate for actual certainty of numbers.
Imagine India buying J-35. The first export customer of J-35. A New World Order indeed.
You know how much China would actually welcome India? Obviously watching it closely but if India were to shift its weight more on China's side, it's a hassle off China's plate and a potentially useful ally since it stabilises the region and takes a Western influenced nation off the Asian mainland.
As for Pakistan buying J-35. Well, buying is probably too loaded a term to apply here. It would be "sold" to Pakistan at break even prices or extremely low profits if any at all.
Pakistan has no ability to pay for 5th gen fighters, even affordable ones. Countries like Canada struggle to put together funds for a handful of F-35s. Pakistan has the GDP of a second tier Canadian city.
If J-35 ever goes to PAF, it would be due to allegiance considerations, not profit. It'll piss the Indians off massively though and I don't consider that to be too wise. Does China measure India up to be that much of a sideshow? Maybe it is.
Pakistan has a mil pact with the Saudis now. I’m sure that MBS can indirectly acquire the J-35 for Pakistani pilots stationed in Saudi Arabia (which is less likely to piss of Americans). As a packaged deal PAF can acquire enough to defend Pakistan.
After Feb '19 they should've done the following:
1. Russian upgrade of MKI with better radar+ R-37M (in time for May '25)
2. Buy more AWACS as stopgap (preferably Russian)
3. Get back into Su-57 program.
True, the IAF frontline units, logistics and training program for future is all already done around the Rafale. Their MRCA basically gave the tender to Rafale and soft committed long ago. They got 36 and lost several so there's already many to replace. They sunk all the initial fortune they had in the budget for Rafale at the expense of Su-30MKI upgrade program. For fighter budget, they basically only had funds for MRCA (100+ fighters) and Tejas modern blocks development and procurement.
Can't exactly switch to Su-57 instead of Rafale or Typhoon now. What do you do with all the logistics and training you've dedicated to Rafale platform which you planned to complete 100+ units of and negotiated for over a decade on the domestication of certain components and manufacturing. You'd have to negotiate the same with the Russians or entire Eurofighter consortium if you were to switch horses. America is out of the question unless you want to act henchman and you've had major fallout with America.
AMCA is a paper project they never had intention to deliver in 2020s. It's kept in the back pocket and studied.
My understanding is Su-57 is 2030s "quarterback" program to beef up whole force. Sort of what F-22 was for USAF before F-35. Like 2 squadrons(54 aq?) of them.
But now they need sq numbers, i.e. basic “meat" problem.
Lo is Tejas mk.1a(ongoing) and hopefully mk.2. Good, but this is LCA, and it's american engines - a risk. Rising fleet, as Bisons are now disinvested. Most urgent, but apparently there's light in a tunnel.
Medium is Rafale, and it's ultimately core of strike capability.
Hi is huge fleet of MKI, which awaits ever delayed MLU and is right now rather below the bar. Upgrade will bring them up to speed as comprehensive universal heavy platforms(fighter/payloads/ew).
*if* everything goes per Indian plans, by 2035s they're probably going to restore some overmatch over Pakistan.
No,no,no-if China were ever monumentally stupid enough to let india purchase theJ35's the indians would IMMEDIATELY sell/give the entire plane/missiles to USA in order to curry great favours from massa sahib Trump-no way no how and even PAF must be highly secured operationally /technologically in order to prevent theft/espionage.
If 20 J-10's are enough for 36 Rafales, 20 J-35's are also enough for 100+ Rafales...
They really should have committed to one ecosystem as a total package importer.
They really should have scaled back on the ambition and self delusion about being attacked by China and Pakistan and just work on itself. Take a step back but commit 100% to domestic. Maybe they truly desire this path but their leaders correctly measured their ability to do this successfully is nil. At least not without major philosophical and ideological changes. After decades of that then transitioning to cultural changes that have an impact on Indian ability for industry, science and technology. Right now they have talent and token high tech industries but the issue is the underlying systems of politics, cultural attitudes and capital allocation (lol I know they're a "democracy" and "capitalist" but they will never see huge volume and penetration of high tech without systemic improvement. They seem to believe a promised future and brute forcing without actually putting in force will get them there. Meanwhile talk about how Indian ethnicity CEOs dominate xyz.
I mean even China is super imperfect here and is still working on those transitions. It gets by because overall, it's more talented and more hardworking which helps China with the brute forcing part but China actually puts in action and force unlike India sitting there with talent but preferring to daydream and talk about how much work they are doing and how bright their future is.
MKI upgrade would be a Su-35 basically. With the R-37M, it would be Rafale with Meteor level capability but at 1/5 the cost.
Getting back into Su-57 program is the smartest move to make but would require them to commit to Russian ecosystem. Wise or not while Russia is in its current state? Not sure. There are bound to be shrewd and intelligent Indian leaders in the midst of morons too. Perhaps they know a thing or two and personally I think Rafale is still their best choice, just dont fight China and it's enough to ensure Pakistan doesn't get any ideas about going on the aggressive. The problem with India is that it is aggressive and trigger happy. Also has delusions of its fantastical grandeur. Not a good mix. Intelligent Indians must absolutely hate how India is run honestly. Picture yourself as a Indian person living in India with all the knowledge you have and having no ability or power to change anything except your vote... lol.
It wasn't a serious line of conversation. India won't buy and even if it were asking, China wouldn't sell.
Pakistan is as much a US ally as it is a Chinese one. It is certainly a questionable decision to sell Pakistan J-35 when there is no advantage to doing that. Every unit produced for Pakistan does better in PLAAF service. Pakistan has no need for J-35. There is also that risk you mentioned. Maybe Pakistan is a good ally but individuals can be bought and the US is so damn good at seducing ethnic people lol.