2026 Israel - Iranian conflict

Will Iran-Israel conflict start again?


  • Total voters
    155
  • Poll closed .

Intention

New Member
Registered Member
View attachment 167875

This is a real chart btw.
This is the real chart but it might be a little bit misleading for people who aren't familiar with Iran. They have had two exchange rates (official and market). Historically they tried to provide importers with the subsidized rate for key things to deal with the impact of sanctions. The Pezeshkian government which we might refer to as neoliberal wants to harmonize the rates because there is corruption associated with it (as you would expect in a kind of clandestine sanction breaking system) and pass a heavy austerity budget. This harmonization is the spike. For the public, the recent spike they feel is more like 25%. Since the brief war though, it is more like 50%+. I should point out while the Iranian economy is messed up for many internal reasons, the current crisis is very much due to the sanctions. They have a current account surplus and reserves of around $120 billion. If they could access their reserves at any kind of scale they could comfortably support their currency.

Here is a link that provides some background:
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Please ignore the claim about the morality police killing Mahsa Amini which I hope at least people here know is unsupported.

I agree with other posters' comments that they need to secure their necessities domestically as much as possible if they want to oppose US foreign policy. They actually have respectable domestic capabilities. Unfortunately, much of their political establishment adheres to Western economic orthodoxy which might work in normal circumstances but to me it is obvious you can't try to play your superpower opponent's game while in such direct confrontation. You either give up some of your foreign policy and adopt the Dengist bide your time and hide what little strength you might have, or you behave like you are in a fight and go command economy or what Iranian politics might call resistance economy.

Now, posters here understand political factionalism and class interests so you can do your own speculation on what is going under the surface.

Of course, there are also immense technical challenges like water scarcity etc. No need to try go into everything
 
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Minm

Junior Member
Registered Member
A foreign attack now would kill the protests. The enemy would at least wait until the protests have enough momentum to become a second revolution. If successful, will this actually be the first revolution to put a king in charge? For Iran, getting a pro US and pro Israel leader would actually solve most problems, as long as the people accept it. I think the Venezuela story is inspiring people on how change is possible. If they actually manage to get rid of Khamenei without civil war, I will also shout, long live the Shah
 

bebops

Junior Member
Registered Member
Many buildings were burned. Some people said it is done by Israel spies. I believed this riot is started by Israel, this is their ace card rather than a war exchange like last time.

If Iran falls, they will become a pro West vassal state. The next target is Saudi.
 

latenlazy

Brigadier
Many buildings were burned. Some people said it is done by Israel spies. I believed this riot is started by Israel, this is their ace card rather than a war exchange like last time.

If Iran falls, they will become a pro West vassal state. The next target is Saudi.
It’ll be just like Iraq.
 

enroger

Senior Member
Registered Member
Many buildings were burned. Some people said it is done by Israel spies. I believed this riot is started by Israel, this is their ace card rather than a war exchange like last time.

If Iran falls, they will become a pro West vassal state. The next target is Saudi.

Yes, most like orchestrated by Mossad. However this is only made possible by the severe economic crisis in Iran, it is always the basic living condition that truly drives this level of discontent.

Iran's economy has always struggled under the sanction, but they've been trudging along fine all these years. However after the 12 days war Iran's economy suffered way more severe deterioration that result in unsustainable hyperinflation. I don't know whether the cause is internal mismanagement or external meddling but that was the when the deciding events really happened.
 

cqxt11

New Member
Registered Member
my chips go in nothing ever happens. from all evidence the numbers are fewer than previous cases. if anything it is all the more surprising that the currency crisis did not help there. cutting the internet is funny but may well work as it is apparently being used to hunt down starlink terminals.
 

Gloire_bb

Colonel
Registered Member
Many buildings were burned. Some people said it is done by Israel spies. I believed this riot is started by Israel, this is their ace card rather than a war exchange like last time.

If Iran falls, they will become a pro West vassal state. The next target is Saudi.
If Israel can start a riot of this scale at will - something is wrong with your governance.
Not like most anti American governments have that much of a choice, but still it stands. Iran is anything but a case of good governance.
 
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