Taiwanese military struggling to find enough volunteers despite record defence budget
Taiwan’s military is facing a worsening manpower crisis as the numbers volunteering to serve continue to shrink.
The trend has raised concerns that the shortfall could undermine combat readiness even as the government plans record levels of defence spending in response to US lobbying and the growing strength of mainland China’s military.
According to a recent report by the Legislative Yuan’s Budget Centre, the overall personnel fill rate – the ratio between authorised and actual troop numbers – fell from 88.6 per cent in 2020 to 78.6 per cent in 2024. By June this had dropped further to 75.6 per cent, the lowest in recent years.
In its recent review of the military’s 2026 budget plan, the centre warned that although defence spending was set to hit a new high next year, allowing the armed forces to buy more weapons, “advanced weaponry can only deliver expected effectiveness when operated by well-trained personnel”.
But the report noted: “The voluntary force’s fill rate has kept falling, and many frontline units receiving combat-duty pay still remain below 80 per cent staffing.”
In August, the island’s cabinet approved a record total NT$949.5 billion (US$29.2 billion) defence budget for 2026 – equivalent to 3.3 per cent of GDP – in response to Beijing’s growing military threat and US calls for allies and international partners to “pay their fair share”. The proposal still awaits final approval from the legislature.
Volunteer personnel are considered the backbone of Taiwan’s combat power, as they spend more time in the military than conscripts, who must serve for a year.
Beijing, which considers Taiwan part of China to be reunified by force if necessary, has in recent years stepped up military pressure on the island, including large-scale exercises around it.
Most countries – including the US, Taiwan’s main arms supplier – do not recognise the island as an independent state.
Washington opposes any attempt to change the status quo by force but remains committed to supplying arms for Taiwan’s defence.
US President Donald Trump has also called on Taipei to raise military spending to 10 per cent of GDP. At present, the government has committed to raise it to 5 per cent of GDP by 2030.
Analysts warned that money alone would not solve the problem. Chieh Chung, a researcher at the Association of Strategic Foresight in Taipei, said the military’s 2026 budget had revealed three alarming signs.
These included the loss of 6,784 volunteers across all ranks, equivalent to two combined-arms brigades; a surge in early retirements among officers, particularly in the air force; and a continued rise in mid-career pilots refusing to extend their service, he said.
The 2026 budget projected a total number of 153,965 volunteer officers and soldiers – 6,784 fewer than this year and down 12,770 on the 2024 total.
The steepest fall was among volunteers, dropping to 28,436 – just 68 per cent of the 2024 level.
“These warnings suggest that the military pay rise earlier this year has not effectively slowed the attrition of volunteer personnel and deserves closer scrutiny by the ministry,” Chieh said.
The Budget Centre also noted that between 2021 and 2024, the armed forces recruited 52,674 volunteer soldiers, but nearly one in four – a total of 12,884 – quit before completing their minimum service, paying the government a total of NT$896 million to buy out their contracts.
Early retirements among officers also more than doubled during the same period.
Retired air force colonel Chou Yu-ping said the exodus reflected deeper structural issues. “For every four volunteers who join, one pays to leave early,” he said.
He suggested the exodus was “not only due to job dissatisfaction but also to persistent uncertainty surrounding the military pension system”.
Chieh said the real manpower gap may be even larger, as budgeted figures often exceeded actual headcounts.
The 2026 plan also forecast a 38 per cent jump in compensation income from officers and non-commissioned officers leaving before their minimum service term – a sign, he said, that “more personnel are choosing to pay penalties to quit”.
He said: “This comes as the air force prepares to absorb new weapons from the United States, including 66 new F-16V fighters, four MQ-9B drones and large numbers of missiles.”
He warned that junior and mid-ranking officers were the critical backbone for such expansion.
“If many air force volunteers prefer to pay compensation just to get out, there will be serious gaps in the cadres needed for new fighter and air-defence units,” he said.
Chieh also highlighted the steady decline in the flight-officer retention bonus, which has dropped from NT$838 million in 2023 to NT$788 million in 2026. “This shows more mid-career pilots have chosen to leave since 2023,” he said.
“Senior captains and majors are crucial to every air-combat unit – they serve as flight leads, section commanders and trainers.”
Their continued departure, he warned, could trigger “a damaging chain reaction across squadrons” just as new aircraft arrived.
He urged the defence ministry to introduce a reserve pilot and reserve instructor system, similar to the US model, allowing veteran pilots who left active duty to keep flying in support of the air force.
Opposition lawmakers have also raised concerns over the declining fill rate, which had dropped to 75.58 per cent in June – below the US military’s C-2 threshold of 80 per cent, the second level in its four-tier unit readiness reporting system.
Huang Jen, a legislator from the main opposition Kuomintang (KMT), warned that Taiwan’s military now ranked at the C-3 readiness level, meaning it could only perform limited missions.
“Having equipment doesn’t equal combat power – the key lies in personnel readiness,” Huang said, criticising what he called a “hardware-heavy, manpower-light” imbalance.
In response, the defence ministry said it had adopted “humane management” methods and raised five categories of pay, including allowances for volunteer service, combat units, air-traffic control, electronic reconnaissance and cyberwarfare.
The measures, it said, had helped lift the overall fill rate, which should reach 80 per cent by year-end. The retention rate had climbed to 86.5 per cent, above the official benchmark of 76 per cent, it added.