China's Space Program Thread II

[madhusudan.tim]

Landspace and other private launch providers appear to be constrained until the return of the taikonauts via a government-managed backup mission. China’s emerging space economy still feels heavily regulated, with remnants of a command-and-control model that slows private initiative.
If Landspace had been allowed to proceed with a full launch and booster recovery before New Glenn, it could have secured a major public relations win, improved its market valuation ahead of listing, and strengthened industry morale. Instead, excessive bureaucratic caution risks undermining competitiveness at a critical moment.

China already has the ingredients for a strong commercial space sector—advanced metal 3D printing for rocket engines, mature materials and composites technology, and a skilled engineering workforce. What holds it back is overregulation and an excessive fixation on safety at a time when geopolitical realities demand urgency.

While gradual progress ensures reliability, it comes at the cost of opportunity. As rivals rapidly deploy constellations and fill low Earth orbit with satellites—including reconnaissance and dual-use systems—China’s delayed response could leave its private launch sector trailing global competitors by 5–10 years. SatNet’s incomplete rollout compounds this vulnerability.

In this context, the insistence on extreme caution may protect short-term safety metrics but jeopardizes long-term strategic positioning in space.

 

[Racek49]

Landspace and other private launch providers appear to be constrained until the return of the taikonauts via a government-managed backup mission. China’s emerging space economy still feels heavily regulated, with remnants of a command-and-control model that slows private initiative.
If Landspace had been allowed to proceed with a full launch and booster recovery before New Glenn, it could have secured a major public relations win, improved its market valuation ahead of listing, and strengthened industry morale. Instead, excessive bureaucratic caution risks undermining competitiveness at a critical moment.

China already has the ingredients for a strong commercial space sector—advanced metal 3D printing for rocket engines, mature materials and composites technology, and a skilled engineering workforce. What holds it back is overregulation and an excessive fixation on safety at a time when geopolitical realities demand urgency.

While gradual progress ensures reliability, it comes at the cost of opportunity. As rivals rapidly deploy constellations and fill low Earth orbit with satellites—including reconnaissance and dual-use systems—China’s delayed response could leave its private launch sector trailing global competitors by 5–10 years. SatNet’s incomplete rollout compounds this vulnerability.

In this context, the insistence on extreme caution may protect short-term safety metrics but jeopardizes long-term strategic positioning in space.

Do you really think that potential buyers of the offered rocket capacity are guided by advertising and primacy? That era was here for a while, but it's been gone for at least 20 years. A free competitive market exists perhaps only within the US and perhaps soon also in China. Only within. And only for defined costs. And you've certainly heard about embargoes and administrative bans.
The payload is generally an order of magnitude more valuable than the rocket itself. There, top experts carefully consider which carrier to choose. Reliability and price are the deciding factors here. Although a little bragging doesn't hurt, right But it doesn't pay much. Pride costs nothing.

 

[peekaboo]

Landspace and other private launch providers appear to be constrained until the return of the taikonauts via a government-managed backup mission. China’s emerging space economy still feels heavily regulated, with remnants of a command-and-control model that slows private initiative.
If Landspace had been allowed to proceed with a full launch and booster recovery before New Glenn, it could have secured a major public relations win, improved its market valuation ahead of listing, and strengthened industry morale. Instead, excessive bureaucratic caution risks undermining competitiveness at a critical moment.

China already has the ingredients for a strong commercial space sector—advanced metal 3D printing for rocket engines, mature materials and composites technology, and a skilled engineering workforce. What holds it back is overregulation and an excessive fixation on safety at a time when geopolitical realities demand urgency.

While gradual progress ensures reliability, it comes at the cost of opportunity. As rivals rapidly deploy constellations and fill low Earth orbit with satellites—including reconnaissance and dual-use systems—China’s delayed response could leave its private launch sector trailing global competitors by 5–10 years. SatNet’s incomplete rollout compounds this vulnerability.

In this context, the insistence on extreme caution may protect short-term safety metrics but jeopardizes long-term strategic positioning in space.

EM dashes galore, "while x, but y" phrasing, listing random advantages (3D printing rocket engines, seriously?)... you wrote this with ChatGPT didn't you? Also you can't seriously say they're insisting on extreme caution in the commercial sector when they literally had an unplanned launch last year.

 

[Michael90]

Landspace and other private launch providers appear to be constrained until the return of the taikonauts via a government-managed backup mission. China’s emerging space economy still feels heavily regulated, with remnants of a command-and-control model that slows private initiative.
If Landspace had been allowed to proceed with a full launch and booster recovery before New Glenn, it could have secured a major public relations win, improved its market valuation ahead of listing, and strengthened industry morale. Instead, excessive bureaucratic caution risks undermining competitiveness at a critical moment.

China already has the ingredients for a strong commercial space sector—advanced metal 3D printing for rocket engines, mature materials and composites technology, and a skilled engineering workforce. What holds it back is overregulation and an excessive fixation on safety at a time when geopolitical realities demand urgency.

While gradual progress ensures reliability, it comes at the cost of opportunity. As rivals rapidly deploy constellations and fill low Earth orbit with satellites—including reconnaissance and dual-use systems—China’s delayed response could leave its private launch sector trailing global competitors by 5–10 years. SatNet’s incomplete rollout compounds this vulnerability.

In this context, the insistence on extreme caution may protect short-term safety metrics but jeopardizes long-term strategic positioning in space.

I'm.not sure. CASC launched long march 11 and Kinetic 1 yesterday. So I'm not sure if the delays only applies to private space companies? Else no reason landscape and Galactic energy shouldn't be launching their rockets by now

 

[FKAMtS4kE]

The people in this thread (and this forum in general) are so bizarrely anxious. ZQ-3 is confirmed to have a launch planned for mid to late November.

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On November 9th, Jiemian News exclusively learned from the industry chain that China's reusable rocket, "Zhuque-3," will make its maiden flight in mid-to-late November.

 

[ZachL111]

The people in this thread (and this forum in general) are so bizarrely anxious. ZQ-3 is confirmed to have a launch planned for mid to late November.

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Yeah I don't think it's good to worry too much, China's space sector is going strong. That's why I tend to stress when rumors are just rumors in my post.

Anyways, some news for the day.

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We have learned that on top of the Lijian-1 that is launching later this month, and the suborbital Lihong-1 (as well as the Lijian-2 in December, not to forget about that), another Lijian-1 will launch in December of this year. They are also planning the first sea-based launch in the first half of next year, to support higher frequency launch cadence. It is quite nice to see the launches ramping up.

We have some images below of the transportation of the Lijian-2 vehicle to the JSLC as well for reference. Also the payload, as I have been updated, is the Qingzhou-1 cargo craft.

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There will be a Zhuque-2E launched prior to the Zhuque-3 launch as well, according to this outlet. Payload is unknown but the vehicle was transferred a few months ago. Here is a picture of the vehicle below.

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In some unfortunate news, the Ceres-1 launch was a failure. The fourth stage failed prematurely, after all steps prior were completed successfully. The payload was that University satellite mentioned prior, it was for the North China University, to establish a constellation of monitoring services by 2035. This was the first technology verification satellite. An unfortunate loss.

Running out of space so will make another post on the successful launch.

 

[ZachL111]

We have some images from the Long March 12 that should be launching on the 10th, with some Guowang satellites, from Hainan. I will put those below, of the rocket being rolled out.

The Long March 12 launch with the Guowang satellites, Group 13, was a success from Hainan.

Here are some nice photos of the launch.

https://imgur.com/a/GNwr42j

Also here is a video below of the failed Ceres-1 launch, you will not see the failure but the launch went well up until then.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1987777347203072363

This should be all for now.

Edit: This was the 72nd launch from China in 2025, and the 607th in the Long March series.

 

[Asug]

The Long March 12 launch with the Guowang satellites, Group 13, was a success from Hainan.

Here are some nice photos of the launch.

https://imgur.com/a/GNwr42j

Also here is a video below of the failed Ceres-1 launch, you will not see the failure but the launch went well up until then.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1987777347203072363

This should be all for now.

Edit: This was the 72nd launch from China in 2025, and the 607th in the Long March series.

It is not reported anywhere how many satellites were launched this time...