PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

[plawolf]

She’s gambling. She’s betting that should Japan intervene first in a Taiwan contingency, Tokyo would be able to pull Washington into the fray as soon as Japanese SDFs come under direct attack. Even if Washington were to remain reluctant at first, if JMSDF ships and bases start receiving kinetic loads from the PLA, Tokyo would be able to trigger the U.S.-Japan mutual defense treaty.

That’s a rather bullshit gamble since only the Israeli tail can wag the American dog. For everyone else, defence treaties only exist to advance American interests, and will be unceremonious dumped as soon as it stops to serve American interests.

If Japan did as you described, all it would take is one proclamation from the White House that Japan initiated hostilities with China first, so that puts it outside of bounds of their mutual defence treaty and America is not obliged to fight and die for them.

The exact same thing would happen if anyone in NATO was moronic enough to directly attack Russia in Ukraine and expect to count on Article 5 to bail them out when the Russians strikes back.

 

[siegecrossbow]

I can't even see what benefit Japan would gain from assisting the U.S. in attacking China. Or has Japan's old habit of gambling its national destiny resurfaced, seeking to ignite World War III through full-scale confrontation with China to revive the dream of a "Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere"?

They already did achieve Greater East Asia Co-pronsperity Sphere. Maybe they want military as well as cultural victory.

 

[DeltaGreen]

There’s this strange attitude many ordinary Japanese seem to have toward China, as if China were the source of all evil and the most convenient thing to blame. Rice prices going up? China. Unfriendly deer or bears in the parks? China. Bad strawberry or grape harvest this year? Also China.

The narrative goes like this: China is so powerful that it’s behind every bad thing in the world, yet somehow so weak that the Japan–US alliance can easily “defeat the villain.”

And honestly, it shows up even in Japanese literature and pop culture — so much sympathy for the wrongdoer, while the victim who judges or tries to correct them ends up painted as the bad guy. Then, out of nowhere, the victim forgives them without the perpetrator paying any price. Come on — debts don’t just disappear; they pile up with interest.

 

[siegecrossbow]

There’s this strange attitude many ordinary Japanese seem to have toward China, as if China were the source of all evil and the most convenient thing to blame. Rice prices going up? China. Unfriendly deer or bears in the parks? China. Bad strawberry or grape harvest this year? Also China.

The narrative goes like this: China is so powerful that it’s behind every bad thing in the world, yet somehow so weak that the Japan–US alliance can easily “defeat the villain.”

And honestly, it shows up even in Japanese literature and pop culture — so much sympathy for the wrongdoer, while the victim who judges or tries to correct them ends up painted as the bad guy. Then, out of nowhere, the victim forgives them without the perpetrator paying any price. Come on — debts don’t just disappear; they pile up with interest.

It’s because even though China is the nominal victor of the Second Sino-Japanese War they never really took punitive measures against Japan. If the SeeSeePee or even KMT had set up military presence on the island in the same style as the U.S., things would be very different.

 

[4Tran]

The PLA and the Chinese people eagerly anticipated Japan's involvement in the West Pacific campaign.
This is an excellent opportunity to address historical issues between China and Japan, and it helps the Japanese people correctly understand the position they deserve in the international community.

And this is why you know it's just talk; even if it's coming from Takaichi. The general idea is that if China manages to take Taiwan, then Okinawa and other Japanese islands can be threatened. However if you look at a map, it becomes quite clear that this narrative is unworkable. The greatest vulnerability to Japan is its reliance on overseas trade, and not only is China Japan's most vital trading partner, most of Japan's trade flows through the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea. A war with China will mean that this route will be severed regardless of whether China wins.

Not only that, but Japan also knows that China is very unlikely to ever act militarily against it unless it enters the war first. And that if this happens, there's a very good chance that China is going to look for some serious payback. I think that there's at least a 60% chance Japan would stay out of a Western Pacific war.

There’s this strange attitude many ordinary Japanese seem to have toward China, as if China were the source of all evil and the most convenient thing to blame. Rice prices going up? China. Unfriendly deer or bears in the parks? China. Bad strawberry or grape harvest this year? Also China.

The narrative goes like this: China is so powerful that it’s behind every bad thing in the world, yet somehow so weak that the Japan–US alliance can easily “defeat the villain.”

And honestly, it shows up even in Japanese literature and pop culture — so much sympathy for the wrongdoer, while the victim who judges or tries to correct them ends up painted as the bad guy. Then, out of nowhere, the victim forgives them without the perpetrator paying any price. Come on — debts don’t just disappear; they pile up with interest.

The Japanese people are stuck in the same kind of mindset vis-a-vis China as the West. They're still thinking of China as if it were still the same country that existed in the '90s or early 2000s. But the thing is that their opinions don't matter, and the Japanese government was never a real democracy in the first place.

I imagine that the JSDF is far more aware of China's capabilities and they know that they can't measure up. Even now, the JASDF has been run ragged trying to keep up with intercepts of Chinese aircraft so they know that they're nowhere near ready for a real war.

 

[RoastGooseHKer]

I can't even see what benefit Japan would gain from assisting the U.S. in attacking China. Or has Japan's old habit of gambling its national destiny resurfaced, seeking to ignite World War III through full-scale confrontation with China to revive the dream of a "Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere"?

Think about Japan’s alliance with the British Empire from 1902 until 1919. By aligning itself with the strongest power at the time, Japan was able to receive battleship tech transfers from the Brits, whilst helping the Brits to defeat the Russians and effectively kicking the the Tsar out of northern China, putting the entirety of Korea and Manchuria under its control. So for Japan, the bet would be US winning a war against China over Taiwan or the South China Sea. Japan would then reemerge as the leading maritime power in Asia again in the back of the strongest power. Looking back, Japan’s most fatal mistake was that it became a revisionist power in the 1930s and started to directly challenge the hegemons of the day. Whilst Japan’s invasion of Manchuria in 1931 was arguably a military operation conducted within its own sphere of influence, the 1937 invasion of China Proper directly challenged the geo economic security of US and UK.

 

[RoastGooseHKer]

If Japan did as you described, all it would take is one proclamation from the White House that Japan initiated hostilities with China first, so that puts it outside of bounds of their mutual defence treaty and America is not obliged to fight and die for them.

Orange may not want a war, but Congress and his neocon advisors likely still believe the US can win a war against China with the help of allies. So long as the policymakers in Washington believe that the U.S. has even a slight chance of beating China, it is up to Congress to decide whether or not to declare war on behalf of an ally. Another incentive for the US to intervene is the chance to weaken China once and for all, regardless now slight such chance may be. For the American elites and upper middle class unconcerned about basic material wellbeing (unlike their brethren living on food stamps), it is worth the gamble to try to preserve the US-led order that has benefitted them so much. At the end of the day, it won’t be their children dying.

 

[SanWenYu]

She’s gambling. She’s betting that should Japan intervene first in a Taiwan contingency, Tokyo would be able to pull Washington into the fray as soon as Japanese SDFs come under direct attack. Even if Washington were to remain reluctant at first, if JMSDF ships and bases start receiving kinetic loads from the PLA, Tokyo would be able to trigger the U.S.-Japan mutual defense treaty.

If the US started apprehending the heavy loss in war against China and thinking of escaping the burden of defending Taiwan, why would it still want to risk for Japan? To the US, there will not be much of a difference in losing either or both. As for such an unequal mutual defence treaty, I am sure the Americans have already prepared countless excuses to exempt themselves from the obligations.

She is just bluffing like a dog barking at the approaching danger.

 

[RoastGooseHKer]

If the US started apprehending the heavy loss in war against China and thinking of escaping the burden of defending Taiwan, why would it still want to risk for Japan?

Because whilst Japan is existential to the US-led alliance and order, Taiwan is not. Taiwan’s fall would not necessarily lead to Australia, Japan, ROK, Philippines, etc. immediately cutting their alliance treaty with Washington, albeit Japan would likely start questioning the credibility of US deterrence political will. Taiwan is not a treaty ally, and the Taiwan Relations Act does not require Washington to defend Taiwan, so Washington has every reason to chicken out, albeit this depends on White House and Capitol Hill’s political will. However, should Washington refuse to defend Tokyo, it would surely put a formal end to Pax Americana, and every middle or small rich powers would start proliferating nukes for their own survival in the anarchic international order. Such truly anarchic order would proceed because Washington would literally be abrogating its own law by refusing to defend a treaty ally.

 

[vincent]

And this is why you know it's just talk; even if it's coming from Takaichi. The general idea is that if China manages to take Taiwan, then Okinawa and other Japanese islands can be threatened. However if you look at a map, it becomes quite clear that this narrative is unworkable. The greatest vulnerability to Japan is its reliance on overseas trade, and not only is China Japan's most vital trading partner, most of Japan's trade flows through the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea. A war with China will mean that this route will be severed regardless of whether China wins.

A false narrative from the West. Pacific Ocean is a big ocean. Ships from/to Japan can go through the middle of the Pacific and the middle of Indonesia. They don’t have to go through the South China Sea , the Malacca Strait and definitely not the Taiwan Strait. The only way China can sever Japan’s lifeline is through a blockade.