China's Space Program Thread II

gpt

Junior Member
Registered Member
I don't think it's possible for them to launch man to the moon in 2 years. I don't even think the launch vehicle will be fully operational then. I believe anything by(or after) 2030 is more viable. Manned moon mission is one of the most complex missions mankind has ever undertaken..So there is no rush for this, safety and patience are of outpost importance. Even a 2032 launch will be a groundbreaking unprecedented achievement by China.

This is a completely reasonable view but I wouldn't rule it out. Comparing it to Apollo milestones, including details like 'how many years Armstrong et al trained in the Lunar Landing Research Vehicle prior to the moon landing' (about 2 years), I think a surprise 2028-9 could potentially work. But there's little to no margin for error under this timeline.

The bottleneck now is obviously the rocket which requires many state-of-the-art stuff that is new to Chinese aerospace
I mentioned some of them here:
- materials, tooling and techniques
- YF-100K's gimbaling system
-
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: this page shows some of the things they've been doing since 2019 to address the poor dry mass of previous gen of rockets with lighter alloys and conical prop tank technology

So the CZ-10 full stack has a lot more considerations and verifications for the team to deal with.
 

by78

General
i-Space (a.k.a Space Honor, Interstellar Glory, StarCraft Glory)
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that it's currently assembling three Hyperbola-3 launch vehicles. The first orbital launch and sea recovery test is confirmed for December of this year.

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In a move that comes as a surprise to no one, i-Space (a.k.a. Space Honor, Interstellar Glory, StarCraft Glory, Star Glory, Interstellar Glory Space Technology, Interplanetary Glory, Interplanetary Glory Space Technology, Interstellar Glory Aerospace Technology Group, Interstellar Space Technology Corporation Ltd, etc.) has delayed the maiden flight of Hyperbola-3 to the first half of 2026. If only the company could spend as much time on developing its rockets as it does inventing an endless stream of alternative names and trademarks for itself, it would be at the forefront of the industry.

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Michael90

Senior Member
Registered Member
In a move that comes as a surprise to no one, i-Space (a.k.a. Space Honor, Interstellar Glory, StarCraft Glory, Star Glory, Interstellar Glory Space Technology, Interplanetary Glory, Interplanetary Glory Space Technology, Interstellar Glory Aerospace Technology Group, Interstellar Space Technology Corporation Ltd, etc.) has delayed the maiden flight of Hyperbola-3 to the first half of 2026. If only the company could spend as much time on developing its rockets as it does inventing an endless stream of alternative names and trademarks for itself, it would be at the forefront of the industry.

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Wait , is this for real? I thought it was just a joke people were making about them. Did they really come out with all these names publicly ? That will be hilarious. Lol
This is a completely reasonable view but I wouldn't rule it out. Comparing it to Apollo milestones, including details like 'how many years Armstrong et al trained in the Lunar Landing Research Vehicle prior to the moon landing' (about 2 years), I think a surprise 2028-9 could potentially work. But there's little to no margin for error under this timeline.

The bottleneck now is obviously the rocket which requires many state-of-the-art stuff that is new to Chinese aerospace
I mentioned some of them here:
- materials, tooling and techniques
- YF-100K's gimbaling system
-
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
: this page shows some of the things they've been doing since 2019 to address the poor dry mass of previous gen of rockets with lighter alloys and conical prop tank technology

So the CZ-10 full stack has a lot more considerations and verifications for the team to deal with.
which is the reason I believe it’s almost impossible for them to meet the 2028 launch there are still so many new technology they need to test and validate, in fact anything before 2030 is highly ambitious to be honest. However, we never know , sometimes there can be surprises, but that’s an exception not the norm in complex space programs like this one. If anything, we expect delays more often not earlier launches. So I won’t be surprised if it even takes until 2035 to be honest. It will still be a highly ambitious /unprecedented achievement for any power.
 

sunnymaxi

Colonel
Registered Member
which is the reason I believe it’s almost impossible for them to meet the 2028 launch there are still so many new technology they need to test and validate, in fact anything before 2030 is highly ambitious to be honest. However, we never know , sometimes there can be surprises, but that’s an exception not the norm in complex space programs like this one. If anything, we expect delays more often not earlier launches. So I won’t be surprised if it even takes until 2035 to be honest. It will still be a highly ambitious /unprecedented achievement for any power.
all bottlenecks and related technologies include Rocket/Engines/lander/spacecraft have successfully developed and is in extensive phase of testing. what @gpt post is correct in this sense, many new technologies still require validation.

the requirement of Manned Moon mission is very high so you need extensive testing validation. all newly developed tech has to go through the series of testing.

CZ-10 test stage has conducted the first static fire test in August and second static fire test in September..
High-resolution images and videos from the second tethered ignition test of Long March 10. The last image also shows the latest progress of the vehicle assembly building for the Long March 10.



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Mengzhou escape test was a success in June this year.

A few more images from Mengzhou's launch escape system test.


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just today CMSA announced the targeting date of Manned mission.. its 2030

All development and construction work for the crewed lunar mission is proceeding as planned, said Zhang. Primary preliminary prototyping of key flight hardware, including the Long March-10 rocket, the Mengzhou spacecraft, the Lanyue lander, the Wangyu lunar extravehicular suit and the Tansuo crewed lunar rover, has been completed.

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Last edited:

Michael90

Senior Member
Registered Member
all bottlenecks and related technologies include Rocket/Engines/lander/spacecraft have successfully developed and is in extensive phase of testing. what @gpt post is correct in this sense, many new technologies still require validation.

the requirement of Manned Moon mission is very high so you need extensive testing validation. all newly developed tech has to go through the series of testing.

CZ-10 test stage has conducted the first static fire test in August and second static fire test in September..

Mengzhou escape test was a success in June this year.



just today CMSA announced the targeting date of Manned mission.. its 2030

All development and construction work for the crewed lunar mission is proceeding as planned, said Zhang. Primary preliminary prototyping of key flight hardware, including the Long March-10 rocket, the Mengzhou spacecraft, the Lanyue lander, the Wangyu lunar extravehicular suit and the Tansuo crewed lunar rover, has been completed.

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Will be funny if China launches a man to the moon before India is able to launch a man to space with the Gaganyaan program. We could even see a situation in future this coming decades were they cooperate together in some way, if border dispute gets sorted or cools down.
 

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Will be funny if China launches a man to the moon before India is able to launch a man to space with the Gaganyaan program. We could even see a situation in future this coming decades were they cooperate together in some way, if border dispute gets sorted or cools down.
I’m sure no one in China cares about India. This is a Chinese space program thread. Don’t derail the thread by posting stupid comments.
 

ZachL111

Junior Member
Registered Member
Alright so here is another news dump.

Gravity 2 is likely to launch in December, from rumors I've seen. We knew that the date would be before 2025 ends, but I think there was some confusion as to whether that would be November or December. From what I am seeing, more likely December.

Another rumor is that the CAS-11 satellite will be delayed until later next year, so for anyone looking forward to that, unfortunately, we will have to wait. Earlier this month, it was thought that the satellite may have launched on the Gravity-1, but that was later confirmed to not be the case, despite matching orbital trajectory usually associated with that type of satellite.

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We have updates on the spacesuits that were sent up in July, here is the quote:

These two new suits, delivered to orbit in July 2025 by the Tianzhou-9 cargo spacecraft, feature improvements in thermal comfort, human-machine interface capability and operational safety, while maintaining high standards of reliability, Zhang Jingbo, spokesperson for the CMSA, said on Thursday at a press conference focused on the upcoming Shenzhou-21 crewed spaceflight mission.

Notably, one in-orbit spacesuit, which was used more than 20 times, exceeding its original design of 15 uses within three years, will retire from future extravehicular missions.

Zhang said it is the first Chinese spacesuit to undergo in-orbit lifespan assessment and extended use -- validating the accuracy of health monitoring and evaluation models and methods for extravehicular spacesuits.

He added that further tests will be carried out on the suit's key materials and characteristic parameters. It is scheduled to be returned to Earth via a new-generation spacecraft at a later stage.

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Chinese private launch providers and other private space firms are increasingly developing, and being solicited for, the manned lunar program. As a personal remark, I prefer this style, where the government guides the solicitation, rather than our American style of basically giving the Artemis program to a few corporations, but I digress.

Anyways, here are the relevant quotes:

A competitive commercial model has already been adopted for the development of the crewed lunar rover, lunar surface remote-sensing satellites and low-cost cargo transportation system for the space station, CMSA spokesperson Zhang Jingbo noted.

Contracts for these facilities have been signed following a competitive selection process, and development work is now underway, Zhang added.

Zhang said that both the scale and proportion of commercial participants have "significantly increased" compared to the past, and their contribution to accelerating the program's progress is becoming "ever more evident."

Looking ahead, the program plans to include competitive commercial models in the research and development of scientific payloads, such as the lunar scientific probe platform and crater-detection platform, Zhang revealed.

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This article goes over some of the new experiments aboard the SZ-21 mission, quite interesting in my opinion.

Another rumor, which I heard earlier this year but has since been said again today, the Darwin-1 and Darwin-2 rockets from Rocket Pi are likely no longer being developed, the company has been stagnant and potentially shut down. Again, like all rumors, this may not be true, but doing a bit of digging, the company has not been posting much of anything.

If anything else comes up today, I will try to update.
 

GulfLander

Brigadier
Registered Member
In a move that comes as a surprise to no one, i-Space (a.k.a. Space Honor, Interstellar Glory, StarCraft Glory, Star Glory, Interstellar Glory Space Technology, Interplanetary Glory, Interplanetary Glory Space Technology, Interstellar Glory Aerospace Technology Group, Interstellar Space Technology Corporation Ltd, etc.) has delayed the maiden flight of Hyperbola-3 to the first half of 2026. If only the company could spend as much time on developing its rockets as it does inventing an endless stream of alternative names and trademarks for itself, it would be at the forefront of the industry.

54379126267_7db6da66b6_o.jpg
If the commercial launch regulatory agency became operational, will they have to submit progress reports and fund utilization reports?
 
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