American Economics Thread

Sinnavuuty

Sinnavuuty

Captain
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Sinnavuuty said:
American Dream!!!
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Part 54:

According to ADP, the US lost 32,000 jobs last month. This was the biggest drop in two and a half years…
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Private payrolls saw their biggest decline in 2½ years during September, a further sign of labor market weakening that compounded the data blackout accompanying the U.S. government shutdown.

Companies shed a seasonally adjusted 32,000 jobs during the month, the biggest slide since March 2023, payrolls processing firm ADP reported Wednesday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for an increase of 45,000.

In addition to the drop in September, the August payrolls number was revised to a loss of 3,000 from an initially reported increase of 54,000.
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The number of long-term unemployed workers in the United States rose to its highest level since the start of the pandemic…
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In August, the number of long-term unemployed had risen to 1.9 million, according to government data — the highest level since 2021, when the country was still recovering from the pandemic.
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Reuters is reporting that more than 150,000 federal employees will leave their jobs permanently last month…
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More than 150,000 federal employees will leave the U.S. government payroll this week after accepting severance packages – the largest annual exodus of civil servants in nearly 80 years, triggering what unions and governance experts warn is a damaging loss of institutional expertise.

Official resignation requests begin Tuesday for employees who opted into a deferred severance program, which kept them on the payroll until September. Voluntary severance programs are a cornerstone of President Donald Trump's strategy to reduce the number of federal employees, combining financial incentives with threats of dismissal for those who refused the offer.
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The number of jobs in the film industry in Los Angeles County has fallen by 30% in just two years…
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The far-left Wall Street Journal reports that, by the end of 2024, there were only 100,000 jobs in the film industry in Los Angeles County, compared to 142,000 two years earlier.

This represents a 30% collapse.
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Exxon has confirmed plans to eliminate 2,000 well-paying jobs…
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An Exxon spokesperson confirmed to Barron's on Tuesday that the company plans to cut 2,000 jobs, representing 3% to 4% of the energy company's global workforce.

The news was initially reported by Bloomberg, which stated that Exxon sent a memo to employees informing them that the company is consolidating smaller offices into regional centers as part of a long-term restructuring plan.
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The tech sector has already laid off more than 166,000 workers by 2025. A 37-year-old tech professional who lost her job last November still hasn't found work, despite applying to hundreds of positions…
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When Anna Whitlock was laid off from her tech industry job in November 2024, she didn't bother finding a new one. The Washington state resident had 11 years of experience managing network infrastructure projects, a specialized role that involves equipping buildings with internet access, cameras, and Wi-Fi security systems.

“The last time I needed to look for a job, I found something pretty easily,” she said.

Nearly a year later, the 37-year-old is still unemployed. Whitlock said she applied for hundreds of jobs — even positions for which she is overqualified — without success.
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Sinnavuuty

Sinnavuuty

Captain
Registered Member
Sinnavuuty said:
American Dream!!!
Click to expand...
Part 55:
According to Mark Mitchell of Rasmussen Reports, only 48% of American adults under 30 currently have a full-time job.
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The American standard of living has been steadily declining for a long time. In 1950, more than 50% of Americans in their 30s owned their own homes and were married. Today, that number has fallen to just 13%...
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Since the postwar period, the proportion of 30-year-old Americans with families and homeownership has plummeted — from about 52% in 1950 to just 13% in 2025. That represents a staggering 75% drop in 75 years.
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44.4% of Americans struggle to pay their mortgage payments every month…
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More than two in five (44.4%) homeowners and renters in the U.S. struggle to pay their rent or mortgage, according to a recent Redfin survey. We consider respondents to have difficulty paying for housing if they selected the options "I have a lot of difficulty paying," "I have difficulties regularly, but sometimes I manage," or "Sometimes I have difficulties, but usually I manage."
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Prices fell 19.9% for properties listed last month as the US housing bubble begins to burst…
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Nearly one in five American homes listed for sale had their price reduced in September, as increased supply gave buyers more power.

The number of properties with reduced prices reached 19.9%, the same percentage as in August, but with a slight increase compared to last year. Homes priced between $350,000 and $500,000 saw the biggest discounts, at 21.6%, while luxury properties above $1 million were less likely to experience reductions, at just 13.3%, according to a report released Thursday by Realtor.com.
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JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon has publicly admitted that he is "much more concerned than others" about a possible stock market crash...
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The chairman of the largest bank in the United States stated that the chances of a collapse of the American stock market are much greater than many financiers believe.

Jamie Dimon, chairman and CEO of the Wall Street giant JPMorgan Chase, said he is "much more concerned than others" about a serious market correction, which he predicted could occur in the next six months to two years.
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This month, stock prices hit their highest overvaluation level, and the Bank of England is comparing the current situation to the dot-com bubble…
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Much of the rapid growth in the stock market in recent years has been driven by investment in AI (Artificial Intelligence).

On Wednesday, the Bank of England drew a comparison to the boom (and subsequent collapse) of the dot-com bubble in the late 1990s and warned that the value of AI technology companies "appears inflated," with a growing risk of a "sharp correction."
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Over the past two years, the shares of the "Magnificent Seven" companies have more than doubled...
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The old adage that the stock market is not the economy risks underestimating the impact that current strong investment trends can have on the prosperity and lives of the entire country.

Artificial intelligence is undoubtedly the megatrend of the moment. Scale is everything, and US tech giants are driving spending as investors rush to board an already overcrowded train.

The so-called "Magnificent Seven"—American tech companies that now account for a record 36% of the S&P 500's market capitalization—have seen their share prices more than double in the past two years, following an impressive 60% recovery from this year's lows.
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There has been a lot of hype surrounding AI, but the truth is that this growth is far from sustainable. The investments that companies have made in AI far exceed the revenue that AI generates for these companies.

As a result, a colossal mountain of AI-related debt has accumulated. For AI growth to be sustainable, an additional $800 billion in AI-related revenue would be needed…
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The current AI boom is unsustainable, a Deutsche Bank research report released this morning warned, because spending on technology will not "continue to grow parabolically." Investment in AI is so massive that it is preventing the US from entering a recession, the bank stated. In another study, Bain & Co. estimates that there will be an $800 billion shortfall in the revenue needed to fund the demand for AI computing power. About half of the S&P 500's gains this year have been driven by technology stocks.
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However, the housing market continues to collapse. According to Redfin, there were 72.3% more sellers than buyers of apartments during the month of August…
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In August, it was estimated that there were 72.3% more sellers than buyers of apartments (108,945 more) nationwide. This marks the fifth consecutive month in which there have been at least 70% more sellers than buyers of apartments in the US housing market.

This makes spring and summer 2025 the most favorable market for apartment buyers since records began in 2013, with the exception of April 2020, when the start of the pandemic disrupted home buying activity.
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Sinnavuuty

Sinnavuuty

Captain
Registered Member
Sinnavuuty said:
American Dream!!!
Click to expand...
Part 56:

At the same time, home purchase contracts are being canceled at an unprecedented rate…
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Approximately 56,000 residential home purchase contracts in the U.S. were canceled in August, equivalent to 15.1% of properties that went into contract that month. This number represents an increase from the 14.3% recorded a year earlier and marks the highest rate for the month of August since records began in 2017.

This analysis is based on pending sales data from MLS (Multiple Listing Service). The data is seasonal, so we are comparing this August to previous months. Note that properties that lost their contract in a given month did not necessarily go into contract in the same month. For example, a property that lost its contract in August could have gone into contract in July.
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Another thing we can expect to see is a sharp increase in foreclosures…
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Foreclosure rates have skyrocketed across the country, up nearly 20% compared to the same period last year.

“By 2025, we see a consistent pattern of increasing foreclosure activity, with starts and completions registering year-over-year increases for consecutive quarters,” says Rob Barber, CEO of ATTOM, a leading land, property and real estate market data collection company.
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According to a recent study, 60% of American workers do not have a "quality job"...
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According to a new Gallup poll, which covers more than 18,000 workers from various sectors, occupations, and job types, the majority of American workers, 60%, do not have a "quality job" that provides basic financial well-being, security, and other factors.

"The main findings are definitely concerning," says Maria Flynn, president and CEO of Jobs for the Future, an organization that helped lead the research. "While the labor market is creating jobs, many of these jobs do not allow workers to truly thrive."
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According to a recent survey released, Americans plan to spend significantly less this holiday season than last year…
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The survey showed that consumers intend to spend an average of $1,595 this holiday season, which is more than 10% less than the $1,778 planned for last year. The reduction in expected spending holds true across all family income brackets and most generations, but was particularly pronounced among younger consumers.

Generation Z consumers, represented in the survey by individuals aged 18 to 28, revealed that they plan to spend 34% less this holiday season compared to 2024. Millennials, survey respondents aged 29 to 44, said they plan to spend an average of 13% less.
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With the approach of the holiday season, we are beginning to receive reports of “empty shelves” in some parts of the country…
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Several people shared Michele's opinion about product availability, describing the situation as "empty shelves and higher prices." Natalie, who lives in New Hampshire, said she hasn't seen certain basic pantry items "for months." She commented: "Supermarket shelves are increasingly empty... instead of several options, there may only be one or two, and famous brands are being replaced by store brands."
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Household debt has hit a record high of $18.4 trillion, and collection agencies are becoming much more aggressive…
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American households now owe a record $18.4 trillion in debt, and federal data shows that complaints about aggressive debt collection have increased considerably in the last year.

The Federal Trade Commission recorded more than 140,000 consumer complaints about debt collection in the second quarter — a 220% increase compared to the same period of the previous year. Georgia, Texas, and Florida recorded the highest rates.
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Sinnavuuty

Sinnavuuty

Captain
Registered Member
Sinnavuuty said:
American Dream!!!
Click to expand...
Part 57:

According to a report recently published by Zero Hedge, auto loan defaults are skyrocketing…
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A month after the bankruptcy of Tricolor, a finance company specializing in subprime loans for vehicle purchases, and First Brands, an auto parts supplier, new weaknesses have emerged in the US credit market. This week, Zions and Western Alliance revealed they were victims of loan fraud linked to funds investing in distressed commercial real estate. The revelations come amid broader credit problems and, turning our focus to the automotive sector, new data was released today on credit products linked to higher-risk consumers, which registered a 50% increase in defaults.

Bloomberg cites data from credit rating firm VantageScore, which reveals that default rates among low-income consumers have increased by 50% since 2010. Fueling this default rate is a combination of factors, including record car prices, high interest rates, longer financing terms, and monthly payments that, for some people, are almost the same as rent.

Since 2019, new vehicle prices have risen by more than 25%, reaching $50,000, while average monthly payments have reached $767, with 20% of buyers paying more than $1,000 per month. Interest rates on financing now exceed 9%, exacerbating the housing affordability crisis.
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In fact, the average price of a new vehicle in the United States has surpassed US$50,000 for the first time in history…
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Five years ago, the average new vehicle cost roughly $40,000. The current average of over $50,000 illustrates the rapid escalation of prices and the transformation of what constitutes a “typical” new car purchase in the US. For many Americans, the new car market has shifted decisively toward affluent buyers and technologically advanced vehicles, with economic pressures and regulatory changes redefining both supply and demand.

The average price paid for a new car in the United States surpassed $50,000 for the first time in September, marking a pivotal moment for the automotive market as buyers increasingly opt for luxury vehicles and electric models. Industry analysis points to multiple trends converging to drive prices higher, signaling deeper shifts in buyer behavior and unprecedented challenges for cost-conscious consumers.
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Millions upon millions of Americans are seriously behind on their student loan payments…
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Approximately 5.3 million borrowers are in default and another 4.3 million are in "late default," meaning they are between 181 and 270 days behind on payments, according to a separate analysis conducted last month by the Congressional Research Service, based on data from the Department of Education. Payments that are 270 days overdue are considered delinquent.

With so many borrowers already in serious default, "if these borrowers don't start paying soon, delinquency will increase significantly," Moody's Analytics economist Justin Begley told CNBC.
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The lines at food banks are getting longer and longer. In fact, in some areas, people are spending several hours in line just for a chance to get food…
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When the Pilsen Food Bank opened on a recent morning, Ulysses Moreno had already been there for two hours — with a line of people behind him that went around the corner.

“This is a lifeline for me,” said Mr. Moreno, 39. He had lost his job in construction a few days earlier and, with three teenagers at home, wanted to ensure he had enough groceries. “Our food budget isn’t what it used to be.”
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Approximately 62% of American workers say the cost of living is rising faster than their wages…
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Nearly two-thirds of workers (62%) say their income hasn't kept pace with rising expenses in the past year — the highest percentage in four years, according to a new Bankrate survey. In 2022, 55% said the same.
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Electricity prices have risen “more than twice as fast as overall inflation”…
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The cost of electricity is rising more than twice as fast as overall inflation, turning a basic household need into a growing financial burden.

In August, electricity prices rose 6.2% compared to the previous year and have already accumulated an increase of more than 30% in the last four years, according to the Consumer Price Index.

This increase has severely affected families and represents a political challenge for the government.
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Nearly half of all restaurants predict they will soon be forced to raise prices even further…
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Nearly half of the 712 restaurant decision-makers surveyed (48%) said they plan to raise menu prices if inflation continues to be a significant factor.

The National Restaurant Association estimates that to maintain a 5% profit margin, the average restaurant needs to raise prices by 31%, according to data compiled by the Washington D.C.-based industry trade group earlier this year.
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According to a stunning survey recently released by PNC Bank, an incredible 67% of all workers in the United States are living paycheck to paycheck.
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A growing share of U.S. workers are struggling to cover expenses as everyday costs continue to weigh heavily on household budgets, according to new survey findings.

PNC Bank’s annual Financial Wellness in the Workplace Report shows that 67 percent of workers now say they are living paycheck to paycheck, up from 63 percent in 2024.

The report surveyed 1,000 U.S. workers aged 21 to 69 who work full time at companies with more than 100 workers.
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Inequality between rich and poor continues to increase. Currently, the wealthiest 10% "account for nearly half of all spending"...
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The wealthiest 10% of American households now account for nearly half of all spending, Moody's Analytics recently estimated, the largest share since the late 1980s.
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When the economy is booming, delivery companies generally thrive and hire many people. Therefore, it's a very bad sign that UPS has chosen to lay off 48,000 employees…
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United Parcel Service (UPS) cut 48,000 jobs in management and operations, the company announced Tuesday when it presented its financial results.

Of these positions, 14,000 were management and 34,000 were operational. The reductions occurred through layoffs and voluntary redundancy programs, the company reported.
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