Any idea when the PRC will be able to start using those reusable space vehicles to launch their satellite internet constellations? Companies like Landspace still have the vibe of garage startups even after ten years. The launch tempo we’ve seen in 2025 for Guowang and Qianfan has been at a snail’s pace and needs to pick up. If you look at SpaceX, they’ve already launched around 2,400 satellites this year alone.
*Start*? Maybe as early as the middle of next year, Landspace is contracted to launch Qianfan and Guowang satellites next year.
The big question is the increase in launch cadence enabled by reuse, there's only one reference point (the space shuttle was too different to compare), so take it.
By comparison with SpaceX, who landed their first 1st stage a bit under 10 years ago at the end of 2015 (but only reused their 2nd recovered booster), on the one hand, a lot of Chinese LSP have learnt lessons from SpaceX (arguably better than some of the other american ones), there are a lot more payloads to launch and pressure and incentives to ramp up cadence compared to SpaceX, who didn't launch starlink until 2020, there is also a more mature astronautics supply chain in china, on the other hand, even if most of the main Chinese LSP have experience with orbital launches of smaller launchers, SpaceX already had launched earlier versions of their Falcon 9 20 times by the time of their first recovery and had already brought it to an operational cadence (even if it was still unreliable).
I think a good, but still realistic outcome would be one where where, by 2030, the few top chinese public and private LSP have brought a F9-class launcher to a bi-weekly cadence comparable to SpaceX in 2020, and a few other have one operational at a lower one, while CASC also keeps launching a variety of expendable launchers, effectively bringing Chinese launch capability to one comparable to SpaceX's current one. Of course by this point SpaceX may be launching their 5x more capable Starship at a rate comparable to their F9 (~170 launches/year)
The main surprise I could see would be SAST's CZ-12-series having a particularly fast ramp up, based on the company's vast experience and important industrial capability (their current ramp up of CZ-6A has been one of the more remarkable of the past decade)
民勤/Minqin, about 250km south-east of JSLC
39.043986 101.922537 to be more accurate
