Yeah China does not have the capability to deter US from attacking Venezuela yet. But I wonder if China can make the attempt a bloody messy one by dumping loads of low tech but highly effective insurgency weaponries into Venezuela, assuming the population has the will to fight
I think people are being too simplistic and naive in their ‘will China come and save xxxxx from America’ mentality.
China isn’t the worlds new white saviour. Not even America was that kind of superpower.
Instead I think China will be pushing their point that China can only help those countries who are willing and able to help themselves.
In this, they can use Pakistan and Syria/Iran as two ends of the spectrum. Pakistan invested in its own defence and partnered with China. When they had need, China was able to bolster their existing defences with additional emergency shipments of PL15s, which Pakistan was able to use to great effect thanks for their pre-existing J10 and JF17 fleets.
OTOH, Syria and Iran didn’t invest in their own defensive capabilities. They didn’t built partnerships with China and didn’t have years of experience operating Chinese advanced weapons. That means when trouble came knocking at their door, there wasn’t much China could do to help them even if it was minded to do so, because even if it sent them J20s it would still not have made any difference since the locals wouldn’t have been able to operate them.
Indeed, I would not be surprised if this messaging hasn’t already been pushed out, and may be part of the reason on why J10s have become such hot commodities of late. If this is the case, then it may just be the tip of the iceberg as nations around the world use Chinese arms purchases as a means of effectively buying protecting from China.
That protection isn’t a guarantee of direct Chinese military intervention. Indeed, such a thing would almost certainly be specifically ruled out at the offset. But what they can do is provide the asymmetric weapons that will allow small nations to pose a credible threat to major U.S. military assets, and thereby generate deterrence when coupled with Chinese supply side pressures on America.
America might not bat an eyelid at the idea of bombing some country back to the Stone Age. But if doing so is going to cost them disproportionately in terms of advanced weapons and potentially also manned platforms, then it may not be worth it for them anymore if China also chokes their supply lines such that every missile and fighter they loose becomes almost irreplaceable.
Venezuela is too late to rely on advanced Chinese weapons now. However, that does not mean they are without options. Specifically, if America wants to take their resources, then they need to put boots on the ground. Once that happens, Venezuela can cause them significant pain and losses using the Ukraine playbook of FPV drone spam. That’s something China can facilitate easily, and I’m sure the Russians would be more then willing to pull some drone pilots out of Ukraine if needed to start paying America back the blood debt they have incurred in Ukraine.
