Can’t wait till TWZ folks freak out and write a 1500 word article on this.
Can’t wait till TWZ folks freak out and write a 1500 word article on this.
No, according to some people, this is not the H-20 that everyone, including China military fans, expected, but just a foreplay product.Hot take: the H-20 project has been cancelled, is completely different from what everyone expected, or evolved into the GJ-X project.
The GJ-X could in theory do everything the B-21 or a notional flying-wing H-20 could do but cheaper and without the risk of losing the crew. Being cheaper and arguably less sophisticated than the B-21/H-20 could allow the PLAAF to scale the production and deployment of these drones. Plus, not having a space dedicated to a cockpit could theoretically imply a larger fuel or weapons capacity compared to a B-21-sized aircraft.
As for the moral qualms regarding the use of drones for nuclear deterrence, this is a non-argument. A human would be controlling these drones on long-range missions and certainly be making the decision to use its weapons. Even if AI is to be incorporated into its flight control system, a sortie as critical as nuclear deterrence would almost definitely involve humans in both the flight and targeting decision aspects of the mission.
In short, I see no justification to build a manned flying-wing-type bomber in the context of the GJ-X (if the GJ-X is indeed what this forum speculates it to be). With the money and human capital required of such an arguably-redundant project, the PLAAF could add many more GJ-Xs to its arsenal; this could mean a critical numerical advantage over the B-21/B-2 that would have profound impact on the military calculus of the 1/2/3IC/Asia-Pacific in general.
The only thing that points to an active H-20 project has been the rumor put forth by the usual suspects on Weibo, although - if true - they could mean that the H-20 has evolved into something completely different from the subsonic flying wing that everyone had been expecting.
I'm pretty sure there's a name for the cognitive fallacy you're demonstrating.
Also cranked wing design has higher drag than flying wing, specifically induced drag due to lower aspect ratio.
But please do re-run your deductions regarding engine thrust given this updated information.
Could also be the case that a notional stealth manned strategic bomber is now undergoing significant redesign to prioritize strategic strike since GJ-X can relieve it from theater strike.Hot take: the H-20 project has been cancelled, is completely different from what everyone expected, or evolved into the GJ-X project.
The GJ-X could in theory do everything the B-21 or a notional flying-wing H-20 could do but cheaper and without the risk of losing the crew. Being cheaper and arguably less sophisticated than the B-21/H-20 could allow the PLAAF to scale the production and deployment of these drones. Plus, not having a space dedicated to a cockpit could theoretically imply a larger fuel or weapons capacity compared to a B-21-sized aircraft.
As for the moral qualms regarding the use of drones for nuclear deterrence, this is a non-argument. A human would be controlling these drones on long-range missions and certainly be making the decision to use its weapons. Even if AI is to be incorporated into its flight control system, a sortie as critical as nuclear deterrence would almost definitely involve humans in both the flight and targeting decision aspects of the mission.
In short, I see no justification to build a manned flying-wing-type bomber in the context of the GJ-X (if the GJ-X is indeed what this forum speculates it to be). With the money and human capital required of such an arguably-redundant project, the PLAAF could add many more GJ-Xs to its arsenal; this could mean a critical numerical advantage over the B-21/B-2 that would have profound impact on the military calculus of the 1/2/3IC/Asia-Pacific in general.
The only thing that points to an active H-20 project has been the rumor put forth by the usual suspects on Weibo, although - if true - they could mean that the H-20 has evolved into something completely different from the subsonic flying wing that everyone had been expecting.
Isn't the X-47B much smaller? And uses only a single engine? And carrier based?
The issue isn't about whether China can build a pure flying kite aircraft. They obviously have built several already. The question is whether they can build one of the size and weight of a B-21 while powered by only 2 engines.
You probably don't want nuclear weapons to be purely in the hands of an autonomous machines without a human onboard to press the red button. I would think PLA is quite conservative in that regard. You wouldn't build a ballistic missile USV either.Hot take: the H-20 project has been cancelled, is completely different from what everyone expected, or evolved into the GJ-X project.
The GJ-X could in theory do everything the B-21 or a notional flying-wing H-20 could do but cheaper and without the risk of losing the crew. Being cheaper and arguably less sophisticated than the B-21/H-20 could allow the PLAAF to scale the production and deployment of these drones. Plus, not having a space dedicated to a cockpit could theoretically imply a larger fuel or weapons capacity compared to a B-21-sized aircraft.
As for the moral qualms regarding the use of drones for nuclear deterrence, this is a non-argument. A human would be controlling these drones on long-range missions and certainly be making the decision to use its weapons. Even if AI is to be incorporated into its flight control system, a sortie as critical as nuclear deterrence would almost definitely involve humans in both the flight and targeting decision aspects of the mission.
In short, I see no justification to build a manned flying-wing-type bomber in the context of the GJ-X (if the GJ-X is indeed what this forum speculates it to be). With the money and human capital required of such an arguably-redundant project, the PLAAF could add many more GJ-Xs to its arsenal; this could mean a critical numerical advantage over the B-21/B-2 that would have profound impact on the military calculus of the 1/2/3IC/Asia-Pacific in general.
The only thing that points to an active H-20 project has been the rumor put forth by the usual suspects on Weibo, although - if true - they could mean that the H-20 has evolved into something completely different from the subsonic flying wing that everyone had been expecting.
In my opinion, the reason is obvious-fuselage space, a longer fuselage means a longer bomb bay, although it may not be able to hold the JL-1 on the military parade, and it may also accommodate other super heavy ammunition of the PLA.Higher drag is more than compensated for by greater lift. Pure flying wing a la B-2, B-21, GJ-11 means an overall larger aircraft if you want to achieve the same IWB length and operational range. If we took the GJ-xx's diamond fuselage as the indicator of IWB geometry and size, if we applied the flying wing shape and removed the cranked wings, that aircraft would simply not have the same range as the cranked wing. It should have a higher top speed with the same thrust. Turning performance may take a hit with flying wings too vs cranked wings although this is something I'm guessing.
To me, cranked wings = desire to achieve greater range and loiter time. There's no other reason for China to be flying both pure flying wings like WZ-xx, WZ-8, and GJ-11 while also applying cranked tailless design with CH-7 and GJ-xx. Cranked wing must offer some compelling advantage to suit those mission profiles better. It's just that China has so much capacity they are not going with one size fits all and tailoring everything plus also inducting the one size fits all platforms.
Hot take: the H-20 project has been cancelled, is completely different from what everyone expected, or evolved into the GJ-X project.
The GJ-X could in theory do everything the B-21 or a notional flying-wing H-20 could do but cheaper and without the risk of losing the crew. Being cheaper and arguably less sophisticated than the B-21/H-20 could allow the PLAAF to scale the production and deployment of these drones. Plus, not having a space dedicated to a cockpit could theoretically imply a larger fuel or weapons capacity compared to a B-21-sized aircraft.
As for the moral qualms regarding the use of drones for nuclear deterrence, this is a non-argument. A human would be controlling these drones on long-range missions and certainly be making the decision to use its weapons. Even if AI is to be incorporated into its flight control system, a sortie as critical as nuclear deterrence would almost definitely involve humans in both the flight and targeting decision aspects of the mission.
In short, I see no justification to build a manned flying-wing-type bomber in the context of the GJ-X (if the GJ-X is indeed what this forum speculates it to be). With the money and human capital required of such an arguably-redundant project, the PLAAF could add many more GJ-Xs to its arsenal; this could mean a critical numerical advantage over the B-21/B-2 that would have profound impact on the military calculus of the 1/2/3IC/Asia-Pacific in general.
The only thing that points to an active H-20 project has been the rumor put forth by the usual suspects on Weibo, although - if true - they could mean that the H-20 has evolved into something completely different from the subsonic flying wing that everyone had been expecting.