Finally. About damn time. I've been harping on about this for so long. Now to go sausage mode on the PLA's new toys while western MIC is scrambling over themselves.
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- Thread starter bd popeye
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Do you know why white boomers say that the reason young Americans don't have houses is because of iPhones and spending on streaming services, and all they have to do is cut back? But they'll flip shit if a young person pointed out the culprit is (rightfully) suburban zoning laws, car dependence, asset inflation and energy prices and crying they will never take away their suburbs and SUVs?
Its because back in their day, electronics and telecom services were so expensive that cutting back on them had a measurable effect on whether you could afford a house or not.
Without China, they go back to that world, and it won't be because houses drop in price. It will be because electronics and telecom will rise back to a substantial fraction of a house. $500 internet, $5k phones.
This never gets old.
But no... to solve this problem, the West has Korea, Japan, ADSL, a European manufacturing base, etc. with unused capacities and still at the cutting edge of research...
They do not, worse is very few even know they don't because they have no idea what's involved in turning a few samples in a lab into useful quantities.
If they could, they would. An action requires capability and intent. The intent has been declared: decoupling was talked about since 2016. Since intent is not the limiting factor, and there is substantial evidence for capability being the limiting factor, we must conclude it is the capability that is limiting.
South Korea is the only 1 with a manufacturing base left, actually. Japan is already a service economy like EU and US. And here is the problem: South Korea is too close to China.
Did you know Taiwan used to hijack and shoot at not only Chinese ships but western ships trading with China, including core NATO allies, and even invading Japanese waters to shoot western NATO ships, and the west did nothing about it, not even verbal complaints, despite how weak and dependent Taiwan was?
All one can say is it is physically possible for the west to become self reliant eventually, physics work the same everywhere.
But to do so it requires fundamentally changes to culture and society, it requires somehow getting people to value education, somehow getting people to plan long term, somehow convince China they're no longer hostile, somehow become willing to learn, somehow hide their strength and bide their time, in other words, it requires fundamentally changing their very identity.
Then, above all else, it requires them to become content with doing all that and still being #2, because all one can do is work toward one's own success, the moment you define your success by other people's failure, you defined your failure as other people's success, and when it comes to China, there's no way to prevent China from succeeding.
If Nvidia is banned, EUV machines could be banned soon.
In short, being smart but unwise.
Smart people have high IQ but very often lacks EQ precisely because possessing high IQ makes them blind and ignorant of the complexity of big matters involving all kinds of people. Perfect example is the military genius like Han Xin and Xiang Yu being outmaneuvered by Liu Bang.