PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

[leonzzzz]

Well there is a counter argument that once the US were able to mass produce LRHW Dark Eagle and Typhoon, and subsequently surround China with hundreds of these weapons alongside Virginia class and B1Bs

First of all, Typhoon is not a type of missile, but a ground based missile launcher that fires tomahawk and SM6. The first one is laughably obsolete already, and the second one was not a dedicated anti ship solution and is easily interceptable by PLAN SAMs. LRHW deployment number is way too slow with only 3 batteries by end of 2027. The number game is never in your favor against China.

Given recent developments, it is the US, not China, that needs to play catch up in most but 2 major programs (nuclear subs and strat bombers). But we do not see catch up, we see accelerated deceleration. There is certainly not a so called 2027 local maximum of capability advantage anymore. And it has already become "the longer China waits, the more military advantage it has" over AR.

 

[Puss in Boots]

If you ask your average 键政 guy online they will tell you Taiwan is an inseparable part of China and not available for bargaining so Xi wouldn't do that and it must be fake news.

I agree with the opinion that Trump's words are worthless in of themselves, however even so he as president coming out publicly and declare US is against Taiwan Independence nevertheless has value in that those words will further demoralise pro-independence voices while give more ammo for pro-reunification voices like gym boss. It will materially move the needle on the issue of peaceful reunification. So as a trade that's something worth negotiating. Just the terms I would offer if it was me would be similarly transient and reversable at a moment's notice.

Declaration from Trump in exchange for China resume buying US soybean sounds about right, with conditions like if it's detected US is breaking with the spirit of the declaration by shipping weapons to Taiwan then it's back to Argentinan soybean again.

Given China's fundamental stance that national sovereignty is unnegotiable,
if China were willing to trade benefits for a verbal US statement, there wouldn't be any media reports leaking ahead of time. This would undermine the Chinese government's commitment to national sovereignty. Once leaked, even a previously agreed-upon deal could be canceled. Therefore, I suspect this report was sponsored by Taiwan, solely to prevent the US from changing its stance toward Taiwan.
This is somewhat similar to Japan's release of a series of false reports about Trump's attendance before the September 3rd military parade. If such information were leaked ahead of time, there would be significant resistance to prevent it from happening.

 

[4Tran]

If you think about it logically, a peaceful reunification in the next few years might actually be the single gravest threat the PLA could realistically face in terms of jeopardising its future funding and the pace and scope of its modernisation plans.

Forcing Taiwan to peacefully reunite with the mainland might be the only viable way for America to have any remotely achievable chance of maintaining its (on paper at least) military advantage over China beyond 2030.

Aside from how the Chinese military isn't a major burden on the military, the US simply isn't going to change its stance towards China. Even if Taiwan is lost, and they've retreated to the Second Island Chain, the US will still do whatever it can to surround and contain China. And so, China's military doesn't change all that much aside from no longer needing new gear for amphibious assaults.

Well there is a counter argument that once the US were able to mass produce LRHW Dark Eagle and Typhoon, and subsequently surround China with hundreds of these weapons alongside Virginia class and B1Bs, Washington could again tilt the balance back in its favour. But this would likely happen after 2030. Thus, there is a window of opportunity for Beijing between now and early 2030s to take Taiwan by force. Additionally, Xi’s 4th term ends in 2032. Not sure what kinds of political consequence he could face if he were to fail to achieve anything regarding Taiwan before he retires. Finally, China’s demographic decline would start to bite real hard after 2035. Beijing would then have no choice but to spend more on butter ( a better funded universal health care for elders) than guns.

Having said that, another DPP victory during the 2028 Taiwanese Presidential election could be the straw that breaks the camel’s back.

Any validity to this widow of opportunity (now to 2032) argument?

China would simply wait out any new DPP terms just as it always has. The military balance in the Western Pacific is strongly in China's favor and all the new foreseeable military developments only strengthen that advantage. Fundamentally, this is the wrong place for the US to fight a war, and it's the kind of war it's ill-suited to win. It would take a major sea change in the way the American MIC operates before they have any chance of clawing back that advantage. And honestly, that's just not going to happen.

 

[gelgoog]

US has resorted to despite measures like going ahead with a hydrogen-peroxide/kerosene liquid fuelled booster powered missile, a decidedly Third Reich era tech just so they have something they can claim as a hypersonic missile

The V-2 used LOX/Ethyl Alcohol.

Lots of people have proposed Hydrogen Peroxide/Kerosene but few rockets use it.
HTP i.e. rocket grade hydrogen peroxide is hard to manufacture. And unlike what the article says it does degrade in storage, hydrogen peroxide (H2O2) decays into a mix of water (H2O) and oxygen gas (O2). To try to reduce this the propellant tanks need to be passivated, for example covered with teflon, and meticulously cleaned.

 

[jx191]

Well there is a counter argument that once the US were able to mass produce LRHW Dark Eagle and Typhoon, and subsequently surround China with hundreds of these weapons alongside Virginia class and B1Bs, Washington could again tilt the balance back in its favour. But this would likely happen after 2030. Thus, there is a window of opportunity for Beijing between now and early 2030s to take Taiwan by force. Additionally, Xi’s 4th term ends in 2032. Not sure what kinds of political consequence he could face if he were to fail to achieve anything regarding Taiwan before he retires. Finally, China’s demographic decline would start to bite real hard after 2035. Beijing would then have no choice but to spend more on butter ( a better funded universal health care for elders) than guns.

Having said that, another DPP victory during the 2028 Taiwanese Presidential election could be the straw that breaks the camel’s back.

Any validity to this widow of opportunity (now to 2032) argument?

By the 2030s, China will have their own upcoming tech.

The demographic situation will be interesting as Taiwan has the lowest birth rate in the world as of 2025. That's something people always forget.

I am concerned about how Xi will feel as his term ends. Is he okay with succession and without taking Taiwan?

There isn't anything about Xi's succession here so I'm not sure what to think.

 

[Nevermore]

The United States' acquisition of a large number of air- and sea-based hypersonic weapons will significantly enhance its military's anti-ship capabilities. However, anti-ship warfare is not the entirety of the picture. The battlefields of the next decade may be dominated by unmanned submarines, unmanned ships, and unmanned aircraft. Currently, the U.S. can only strive to catch up with China in a few select areas.
Regarding demographic trends, China will begin to face significant negative impacts from its population structure starting in 2035. However, this will primarily affect China's economic growth and technological innovation, with minimal impact on its military.

 

[vincent]

The United States' acquisition of a large number of air- and sea-based hypersonic weapons will significantly enhance its military's anti-ship capabilities. However, anti-ship warfare is not the entirety of the picture. The battlefields of the next decade may be dominated by unmanned submarines, unmanned ships, and unmanned aircraft. Currently, the U.S. can only strive to catch up with China in a few select areas.
Regarding demographic trends, China will begin to face significant negative impacts from its population structure starting in 2035. However, this will primarily affect China's economic growth and technological innovation, with minimal impact on its military.

A big IF.

 

[gk1713]

The United States' acquisition of a large number of air- and sea-based hypersonic weapons will significantly enhance its military's anti-ship capabilities. However, anti-ship warfare is not the entirety of the picture. The battlefields of the next decade may be dominated by unmanned submarines, unmanned ships, and unmanned aircraft. Currently, the U.S. can only strive to catch up with China in a few select areas.
Regarding demographic trends, China will begin to face significant negative impacts from its population structure starting in 2035. However, this will primarily affect China's economic growth and technological innovation, with minimal impact on its military.

I would rather believe there will be some hot hypersonic weapon ETF, than think that a "large number of hypersonic weapons" can be achieved.

For demographic trends, using linear thinking to predict the population structure in 2035 or 2050 implies an expectation of peace and stability for the coming decades. Given the current situation, this is a rather bold assumption.

 

[RoastGooseHKer]

I would rather believe there will be some hot hypersonic weapon ETF, than think that a "large number of hypersonic weapons" can be achieved.

For demographic trends, using linear thinking to predict the population structure in 2035 or 2050 implies an expectation of peace and stability for the coming decades. Given the current situation, this is a rather bold assumption.

Well, instead of issuing K visas, Beijing could form some kinds of foreign legion similar to those of the French Army. You get PRC citizenship in exchange for 6 years of active duty, but the opportunities would only be open to citizens (men and women, especially athletic women) of countries of strategic importance to China.

 

[RoastGooseHKer]

By 2035, China would have:

1500 more stealth fighters if we consider a 150 per year production rate. Atleast 500 high tier CCA if we are conservative, probabably 1500 CCAs.

So, total 1900 stealth fighters, And another 1000 4.5 Gen fighters.

120 AWACS planes with KJ-500, KJ-700 and KJ-3000 all in active service

40+ Y-9 ECM planes

150+ J-16Ds

Enough HQ9C, HQ19 and HQ29 batteries to replace all the older ones they have now. so atleast 400 launchers. So, covers advanced missile and air defense.

Enough underwater drones to completely cover all of the first island chain

Atleast 3-4 Type 095, 15+ Type 093Bs

30 more destroyers/cruisers to get the total to 80, along with atleast 70-80 total Frigates

6-7 carriers in Active service, 2 more likely testing/building phase

1500 Active Nukes

Enough Hypersonic missiles to replace most of the PLARF non Hypersonics, So atleast 5-700 launchers capable of launching Hypersonics

I haven't even covered any of the new stuff like 6th gen or H-20, which will be atleast in LRIP by that point.

I would be super scared if I were US to face PLA of 2035.

But this does not resolve the dilemma between spending more on guns versus butter after 2035. China's aging population issues will force the government to spend more on universal eldercare. And that means less resources for the PLA (except veterans and MOD retirees).