J-15 carrier fighter thread

[Blitzo]

No, I'm only counting the CATOBAR J-15 family.

Uhh
I'll rephrase my question to avoid misunderstanding.
For your below breakdown of CATOBAR J-15T/DT below per carrier, are you talking about the number of J-15T and DT squadrons/units per carrier, accounting for or without each carrier also having a J-35 complement aboard?
AKA, is the no. of J-15T/DTs listed per carrier, the total no. of fixed wing fighters that each carrier will have?

CV-16 Liaoning: 1x J-15T squadron (10-12x units) + 1x J-15DT squadron (4-6x units)
CV-17 Shandong: 1x J-15T squadron (10-12x units) + 1x J-15DT squadron (4-6x units)
CV-18 Fujian: 2x J-15T squadrons (10-12x units) + 1x J-15DT squadron (6-8x units)
CV-19: 2x J-15T squadrons (10-12x units) + 1x J-15DT squadron (6-8x units)
CVN-20: 2x J-15T squadrons (10-12x units) + 1x J-15DT squadron (6-8x units)

For example, for CV-18, you list 2x J-15T squadrons of 10-12 airframes per squadron, and 1x J-15DT squadron of 6-8 airframes, which is 20-24x J-15T airframes + 6-8x J-15DT airframes.
Is that number envisioning the CV-18's total fixed wing tactical air complement is only 20-24x J-15Ts + 6-8x J-15DTs, or is there also 1-2 squadrons of J-35s as part of the total fixed wing tactical air complement in addition to the J-15T and DTs?


I assumed you were including J-35s as part of those complements, because for Fujian, a total of 26-32 J-15T/DTs as the only fighter airwing complement seems a bit light.

As for the J-35, I certainly expect a larger production run than the J-15T/DTs, as I anticipate that the carrier air wings on future carriers (i.e. post CVN-20) would most likely only consist of J-35s and J-XD(S)Ts as their manned fighter components (apart from the J-15TDs, if their roles haven't been taken over by something else).

Yes

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

Uhh
I'll rephrase my question to avoid misunderstanding.
For your below breakdown of CATOBAR J-15T/DT below per carrier, are you talking about the number of J-15T/DT squadrons or airframes per carrier with or without each carrier also having a J-35 complement aboard?
AKA, is the no. of J-15T/DTs listed per carrier, the total no. of fixed wing fighters that each carrier will have?

For example, for CV-18, you list 2x J-15T squadrons of 10-12 airframes per squadron, and 1x J-15DT squadron of 6-8 airframes, which is 20-24x J-15T airframes + 6-8x J-15DT airframes.
Is that number envisioning the CV-18's total fixed wing tactical air complement is only 20-24x J-15Ts + 6-8x J-15DTs, or is there also 1-2 squadrons of J-35s as part of the total fixed wing tactical air complement in addition to the J-15T and DTs?

No, I'm just counting the J-15T/DTs in my initial post. There should be an additional 2x squadrons of J-35s per carrier for the CATOBAR CV/CVNs (again, 10-12x units per squadron).

I'm mainly modelling my calculations based off the Strike Fighter (VFA) Squadrons of the USN CVNs, whereby there are 4x F/A-18E/F and F-35C squadrons per CVN of 10-12x units per squadron (which does not include the Electronic Attack (VAQ) Squadron, whereby each CVN would have one squadron of 7x E/A-18Gs each).

 

[Blitzo]

No, I'm just counting the J-15T/DTs in my initial post. There should be an additional 2x squadrons of J-35s per carrier for the CATOBAR CV/CVNs (again, 10-12x units per squadron).
I'm mainly modelling my calculations based off the Strike Fighter (VFA) Squadrons of the USN CVNs, whereby there are 4x F/A-18E/F and F-35C squadrons per CVN of 10-12x units per squadron (which does not include the Electronic Attack (VAQ) Squadron, whereby each CVN would have one squadron of 7x E/A-18Gs each).

Ah okay, yes so that's what I was getting at.

I was asking if your J-15T/DT squadron/airframe estimates were assuming that there was also a J-35 complement aboard each of your airwing suggestions, in which case the answer is yes.

 

[tamsen_ikard]

Discussion continued here to avoid derailing original thread.


With this in mind, we could roughly guesstimate how many J-15Ts and J-15DTs that the PLAN would actually need for the foreseeable time.

CV-16 Liaoning: 1x J-15T squadron (10-12x units) + 1x J-15DT squadron (4-6x units)
CV-17 Shandong: 1x J-15T squadron (10-12x units) + 1x J-15DT squadron (4-6x units)
CV-18 Fujian: 2x J-15T squadrons (10-12x units) + 1x J-15DT squadron (6-8x units)
CV-19: 2x J-15T squadrons (10-12x units) + 1x J-15DT squadron (6-8x units)
CVN-20: 2x J-15T squadrons (10-12x units) + 1x J-15DT squadron (6-8x units)

This would tally up to about 80-96x J-15Ts and 26-36x J-15DTs, or about 106-132x units of the CATOBAR J-15 family. Note that this number hasn't include additional units meant to be spares and/or land-based training.

Of course, this is by assuming that all 5 of the aforementioned carriers will be in active service with the PLAN by the mid-2030s, and that both the J-XD(S)Ts and the carrier-based UCAVs (e.g. GJ-21) aren't ready for large-scale deployment by then.

In retrospect, the most recent count stands at ~80 units for the CATOBAR J-15 family:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1970673843476808129

And as for the 100+ units of the STOBAR J-15 family - Once the requirement gap for the CATOBAR J-15 family has been filled, they can be wholly relegated to land-based training duties and be MLU-ed to the CATOBAR J-15 family standards.

I don't see them stopping J-15T/DT production anytime soon. China's definitely planning for more carriers after the next two, and I doubt they'll stop until they have a fleet of 8 to 10.

But the real bottleneck isn't building the ships—that's the easy part. It's building the air wings. That takes years, because you have to establish doctrine, develop tactics, and train the pilots.

That's why they'll likely keep building up their carrier-based air wings long before the actual ships are ready to host them.

Also, even if the J-XDS is inducted around 2030, it will probably be in LRIP for years after. So until at least 2035, the J-15 will remain the main heavy fighter on their decks, with the J-35 as the medium fighter.

If we go by the 175% method, the final count could be 3-400 for J-15 before production stops.

 

[Atomicfrog]

But the real bottleneck isn't building the ships—that's the easy part. It's building the air wings. That takes years, because you have to establish doctrine, develop tactics, and train the pilots.

Training the pilots will be quite a task, the new carrier trainer will be a great help and from the number of carrier 8-10 that you think China will build, I could even see a carrier mostly dedicated for training. That's a lot of pilots to train.

 

[4Tran]

Training the pilots will be quite a task, the new carrier trainer will be a great help and from the number of carrier 8-10 that you think China will build, I could even see a carrier mostly dedicated for training. That's a lot of pilots to train.

It's also a big job to train all the air crew for these carriers. Even if China were to make Liaoning into a training ship, that's only good for STOBAR operations, and CATOBAR operations are a pretty different proposition. It's going to take years, if not decades, to build up a proper carrier-based navy. Luckily for China, carriers are very much a luxury as they're not absolutely necessary for combat in Chinese home waters. It doesn't really matter how much it's going to take, and it's more important to get it right than to get it quickly.

 

[Totoro]

In retrospect, the most recent count stands at ~80 units for the CATOBAR J-15 family:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1970673843476808129

I am unsure as to how someplaosint guy got to 100 for stobar, 80 for catobar j15 and 15 for j35. Especially when referrring to huitong blog as a source.

Looking at the very same huitong gallery serials list, even accounting for small gaps between numbers and rounding up, i see approx 85 stobar j15 (two seaters included) and some 50 catobar j15 (again, two seaters included).
For j35, there are literally just 4 serials photographed. With a big gap of 10 numbers unaccounted for so i dont feel one can comfortably assume all those in between numbers must positively exist right now.

Maybe someplaosint guy used some additional sources to come up with his estimate?

 

[Blitzo]

I am unsure as to how someplaosint guy got to 100 for stobar, 80 for catobar j15 and 15 for j35. Especially when referrring to huitong blog as a source.

Looking at the very same huitong gallery serials list, even accounting for small gaps between numbers and rounding up, i see approx 85 stobar j15 (two seaters included) and some 50 catobar j15 (again, two seaters included).
For j35, there are literally just 4 serials photographed. With a big gap of 10 numbers unaccounted for so i dont feel one can comfortably assume all those in between numbers must positively exist right now.

Maybe someplaosint guy used some additional sources to come up with his estimate?

To be honest I'm not sure why that guy's tweet was quoted in the first place either. Their track record is iffy in other matters and are a bit over-zealous in the past. More importantly, I know the person behind it and there's a bit of excess confidence that is implied through their tweets which is arguably undeserved.

That said, the numbers being thrown around there is almost certainly a combination of:
- identifiable serials and gap filling between identifiable serials (and production numbers at times)
- visually confirmed additional airframes which have yet to receive serial numbers (such as the multiple J-35s that we saw in final stages of assembly in video a couple of months ago at SAC)
- take the above two factors and then revise up by 1/3 of the established number to account for the usual "the number we can confidently estimate/identify is 60-75% of total number which exists)


But as I said -- excess confidence.