Yes folks, it's that time of the year again. Let's look at China's transition times.
Aug 2025 sales:
34.4% BEV
20.8% PHEV
44.9% ICE
Compare it to trailing 12 months sales:
30.9% BEV
20.5% PHEV
48.6% ICE
So basically BEV is winning almost all the new market share away from ICE. PHEV is only gaining a tiny amount.
Remember when I said that PHEV is just a temporary blip? The peak was supposed to be in early 2027.
But it appears we could hit that midpoint faster.
Another thing: EREV sales are barely increasing either. They were 5% in Aug 2025 compared to 4.9% trailing 12 months. This strongly suggests that any residual range anxiety is melting away among China's EV buyers.
Let's look at the historical record for perspective.
PHEV got a huge boost in 2023 and 2024. But the growth in 2025 has been much more muted whereas BEV has continued to steadily climb the ladder.
This can also be seen in the transition time chart. BEV kept going up (green line) during 2023 and 2024, implying the transition would take longer. But in recent months, the curve has flattened out.
The big question is what happens after Jan of next year. Subsidies will be cut in a big way. BYD will probably not raise praises, but weaker companies will be hit by them. We've spoken of the need for consolidation for so long. Will we finally begin to see it?