Trump 2.0 official thread

tamsen_ikard

Senior Member
Registered Member
These rural populations represent the untapped growth potential of India's economy. Their sons and grandsons will migrate to cities to become middle-to-high-income citizens. When we say someone has low academic performance, it also implies enormous room for improvement—much like India's rural "non-economic" population. As India attracts foreign investment, builds roads and bridges, and expands manufacturing and services, more people will move from villages to cities to take on jobs similar to those held by the Chinese people two decades ago.



Additionally, regarding currency depreciation, for a nation reliant on manufacturing exports, a weaker currency actually translates to increased profits in certain manufacturing sectors and enhanced competitiveness. This makes establishing local manufacturing bases relatively cost-effective. We know India's manufacturing exports currently lack competitiveness, but just as China did in the past, as factories upgrade, Indian product quality will improve. Eventually, it may gain solid global competitiveness. By then, it will be too late to try to curb India's accelerating export growth.
Its easy to say they have rural untapped population that will automatically become middle-class city dwellers. If that were the case then we will not have Arab/Latin american countries with 90% urbanization but still stuck at middle-income trap.

I believe there is a lot of foundational steps needed to ensure a country can overcome the middle-income trap. Things like fundamental educational infrastructure, empowerment of women to join the work force, equalizing the farm land ownership through land reform and so on. India hasn't done any of that. They are basically a colonial style economy with a few rich robber barons controlling the whole economy. They also have inherent class difference with the caste system.

Finally, India has terrible infrastructure and whatever new infrastracture they build is also bad quality due to corruption.

We can go on for plenty of other limitations in India's development model. But overall, just having a poor population is not a recipe for inevitable success.
 

Randomuser

Captain
Registered Member
When I was a kid in 2008, I heard similar statements about China in the west. „Trust me bro, it could collapse any minute from now“, „China is a pressure cooker waiting to explode“, „they are all peasants working in sweat shops“ etc. Look at where it is now. Things change fast.
Here we go again. China did it. Therefore India can do it. How many times I have heard this logic?

Why? Coz they are big and also in Asia (where Israel also is) ? So I guess that makes them the same?

I mean sure. Maybe India will have some fifth IT revolution or the world nukes itself and only India remains. That's more viable and specific than just saying coz China did it so India will follow. which is why a lot of Jai Hinds btw are so convinced they will inevitably become China without giving any actual detail on how they will reach that stage.
 
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siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
India is more like late 1990s early 2000s China based on relative indicators. Still past the point of no return of suppression, but 2007 is quite generous as Huawei, Tencent and SMIC already took off and HSR was opening, while the same industrial investments in India are in their infancy.

Even the most debauched and uneducated Chinese peasants during the late 90s didn’t bump nasties with reptiles…
 

uguduwa

New Member
Registered Member
No offence but I‘ve with Chinese with absolutely horrendous standards of hygiene. I am talking inhuman levels as in about 5cm fat layer on the stove and completely destroyed toilet etc. but I wouldn‘t go as far to judge the entire Chinese nation for this. Also a few dozen Chinese were found dead in a container on the way to the UK on a container and there were a lot of Chinese crossing the border illegally into the US in past few years. So having endured hardship, I would expect some empathy for nations going through similar experiences.
 

A potato

Junior Member
Registered Member
No offence but I‘ve with Chinese with absolutely horrendous standards of hygiene. I am talking inhuman levels as in about 5cm fat layer on the stove and completely destroyed toilet etc. but I wouldn‘t go as far to judge the entire Chinese nation for this. Also a few dozen Chinese were found dead in a container on the way to the UK on a container and there were a lot of Chinese crossing the border illegally into the US in past few years. So having endured hardship, I would expect some empathy for nations going through similar experiences.
Those Chinese who tried illegally immigratating to the west are the trash of the country and do not represent China in the slightest. They're usually criminals or christian fanatics etc who are anti China.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
So you didn't get my point as well.
Correct. Nobody got your point, because it doesn't make sense. Take a look at your original post. You got 2 people laughing at you and 2 people with dropped jaw expressions. My response had 13 likes and loves. This isn't a popularity contest but when everybody in a forum known for professionalism disagrees with you and agrees with the counterargument, it's time for a self-check instead of, "Oh, you ALSO didn't get my point like the rest of these people."
I asked you if you think China doesn't recognise the reason you made for north Korea developing nukes.
You didn't ask me that. That question doesn't make sense. Reread and rewrite.
So you think Chinese leaders dont know about what you just said?
I think they know exactly what I said, which is why China has excellent an relationship with North Korea, which you fail to acknowledge.
So if they knew all this why are they still avainst north Korea developing nukes to the point they joined the US to placed sanctions on N. Korea to stop their nuclear weapons programs?
Next time, you need to read before you respond. I'll quote my last response.
"That was at a time when China needed to play along with American leadership for its own wolf-in-sheeps-clothing scheme."
Or are you saying China and the US have been unfair to N.Korea? Lol
Absolutely. America started it and China had to go along with it when it was too weak to stand up to the Western order. What's funny about that? Is it not globally known that the US bullied North Korea because it wasn't a bitch with its legs in the air like South Korea?
Dude life is not a fairy tale,
So shut up with your made up shit.
where we have to victimise for eternity.
I didn't victimize anyone. You victimized English in this post.
.do you think North korea is the only country to have had a sad history?
What does that have to do with anything? There are countries that don't exist anymore because they were conquered. What's your point?
The only thing funny here is your nonsense rambling in broken English.
China had an even more tragic one as well, but that doesnt means China will keep victimising herself and stopping herself from moving on.
What is your point? North Korea also moved on; it militarized itself and acquired nukes to defend against American aggression.
Japan committed even more atrous crimes in China but china moved on and even established relations and ties with Japan later on and allowed massive japanese investment and economic cooperation which continues to this day.
That's China's speciality. Remain someone's political enemy while strengthening itself through business.
Using North korean logic China shouldnt have done any of that and woulf have kept a hostile isolationist relationship relation , we have to be realistic in life.
North Korea is normal; that is how countries/people act when they are attacked. China is a master tactician to pull a wolf-in-sheep's clothing and use our enemy's resources to build ourself until we become stronger than them. The price, which North Korea never had to pay, was pride. China had to lower our heads for decades as we grew, and now we have to rebuild that pride and shed our past insecurities. North Korea never lowered its head to anyone; it was always a brute with an axe and a middle finger to anyone who crossed it. It's not very strong aside from its nuclear capabilities but it's strong enough out of the ~200 countries in the world and it lives an uncomplicated life with no self-contradictions.
Vietnam went through similar if not even worse attrocities compared to North Korea, but the communist regime in Vietnam after isloating and victimising herself for a long time finally understandood they had to move one, open up and reform and join the modern world and even nornalised relations with the US(their former arch enemy).
Vietnam can't build shit compared to nuclear North Korea, which has all its own skyscrapers and people who never bowed to anyone. Westerners who see videos of North Korea pretend to themselves that everything is staged because a country that is this hated and feared in the West under decades long embargo by its enemies can't have buildings this nice, or streets this clean or people this organized and disciplined. Vietnam, on the other hand, is known as a brothel to the soldiers who attacked it. Its city nightlife is a sad sorrowful sight that makes you ashamed that they're Asian. When Westerners tour North Korea, they are educated people on their best behavior (so as not to end up like one Mr. Warmbier) and they go to learn the history and the culture. When Westerners visit Vietnam, they are low lifes going to get drunk, start fights, hire hookers and apparently, rob jewelry stores too. I'd be North Korean over Viet any day.
In life you jave to learn to move on and just learn from the past. Pyongyang is still living in the past, they never moved on.
1. They are living in the present, where America instills unrest and revolution as needed in countries foolish enough to lose control to American influence.
2. If your argument was that North Korea is not a brilliant tactician in developing itself, I'm fine with it. Your argument is that North Korea and China have a terrible relationship and China wishes North Korea would deweaponize. That's what I'm arguing against.
Shows the rgeime is insecured, scared and paranoid about everything and everybody. Lol cant keep blaming everybody but themselves. If laying blame and injustice was the norm of development and change in world then africa (who has the most tragic history) would be/shoule be the most developed or open country today giving all the unjustices they suffered and are still suffering. However life is not like that.
Nobody ever said that tragedy and suffering lead to great development or that North Korea was a shining star of development. You made all this strawman up. I don't even know what you are arguing or who you are arguing with. This is not a logical reply to my post.
 
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FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
No offence but I‘ve with Chinese with absolutely horrendous standards of hygiene. I am talking inhuman levels as in about 5cm fat layer on the stove and completely destroyed toilet etc. but I wouldn‘t go as far to judge the entire Chinese nation for this. Also a few dozen Chinese were found dead in a container on the way to the UK on a container and there were a lot of Chinese crossing the border illegally into the US in past few years. So having endured hardship, I would expect some empathy for nations going through similar experiences.
This is inaccurate. Initial inspection was visual only. Later they were all actually identified as Vietnamese nationals.

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Those who walk to the US make up less than 1% of all illegal immigrants in the US, let alone immigrants in general.

I mean it doesn't even make sense. China is visa free with Singapore, which has higher GDP per capita than the US and speaks Chinese. Yet there are very few illegal overstays in Singapore.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
These rural populations represent the untapped growth potential of India's economy. Their sons and grandsons will migrate to cities to become middle-to-high-income citizens. When we say someone has low academic performance, it also implies enormous room for improvement—much like India's rural "non-economic" population. As India attracts foreign investment, builds roads and bridges, and expands manufacturing and services, more people will move from villages to cities to take on jobs similar to those held by the Chinese people two decades ago.

1. Over the past 10 years, child malnutrition has been progressively getting worse in India.
This even includes the 5 year period before COVID, from 2015-2020

2. Net FDI in India has crashed 96%, essentially to zero. Pretty much every foreign company, whether American, European, Chinese has been burned and serve as an object lesson.

3. The jobs held by Chinese people 2 decades ago... are disappearing globally. The biggest cause is continuing improvements in robots and automation, in terms of capabilities (AI) and affordability (due to mass production and adoption). We now see mass orders for humanoid robots from Chinese factories and also elderly care homes as examples.

Additionally, regarding currency depreciation, for a nation reliant on manufacturing exports, a weaker currency actually translates to increased profits in certain manufacturing sectors and enhanced competitiveness. This makes establishing local manufacturing bases relatively cost-effective. We know India's manufacturing exports currently lack competitiveness, but just as China did in the past, as factories upgrade, Indian product quality will improve. Eventually, it may gain solid global competitiveness. By then, it will be too late to try to curb India's accelerating export growth.

1. Manufacturing is shifting from humans. Look at how Xiaomi now has a dark factory with no humans involved in production, and this is probably the future of all manufacturing. Is India going to import this Chinese-controlled robots?

2. China already has the entire supply chain, which operates with razor-thin profit margins.

Indian companies will need to make billions in large upfront investments to build a supply chain. This will be unprofitable unless subsidised by the government, with a large currency devaluation or external tarffs. And even then, if India faces the uncertainty of large tariffs (like the 50% tariffs imposed by Trump), what is the point of investing in India?

3. China already has built out the infrastructure to facilitate exports. The Indian government would have to do the same, but how??

4. China has already "won" the technologies of the future (eg. Solar, Wind, batteries, EVs, telecoms) and is rapidly approaching world-class in biotech, AI and semiconductors. So what is India going to export?
 

Wrought

Senior Member
Registered Member
I don't know how this thread got so derailed, but to bring it back on topic, we're getting more details on the Tiktok deal (@taxiya, you might be interested in these). The basic contours seem to be that Bytedance spins off a Tiktok (US) company to run the Tiktok platform. The new company will be majority-owned by a consortium of US investors, with a minority stake for Bytedance. The daily operations will be run by the same people as ever, with some new oversight from Oracle. There will be some kind of internal firewall between US and global versions. The algorithm will be licensed from Bytedance and reused, albeit with some US-specific tweaks to the parameters and data.

Beijing has said the US spin-off of TikTok to be sold to American investors in a deal orchestrated by President Donald Trump will use parent company ByteDance’s Chinese algorithm. Wang Jingtao, deputy head of China’s powerful cyber security regulator, on Monday said US and Chinese officials had agreed a framework that included “licensing the algorithm and other intellectual property rights”.

An Asia-based investor of ByteDance said the new US TikTok entity would use at least part of the Chinese algorithm but train it in the US on American user data. “Beijing’s bottom line is a licensing deal,” said the investor. “Beijing wants to be seen as exporting Chinese technology to the US and the world.” “It’s the ultimate Taco trade,” said one US adviser close to the deal, referring to the acronym “Trump always chickens out”. “After all this, China keeps the algorithm.”

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All in all, I'd say this is a pretty solid win. The superficial optics (corporate shares, licensing, etc) become American, while the actual operations (code, data, etc) stay Chinese. If push comes to shove, control is in the hands of Bytedance engineers at the end of the day, not whatever investor's name is on the shares. The substance of the deal is broadly similar to the one in April, as I already said yesterday.

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