Self Propelled Gun/Rocket Launcher

tamsen_ikard

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How many LR MLRS do you think the US has compared to LR MLRS of the PLAGF?

Think tube, and payload equivalency per tube.

You keep throwing out these opinions as if they are widely held conclusions or consensus, but you're not backing them up with established numbers or properly equating them system by system.

Edit: hint, think about the payload and range of a 370mm rocket versus a 227mm rocket versus something like ATACMS.

US currently has 991 M270 tracked MLRS which is even bigger than the HIMARS, and also 540 regular HIMARS. That's almost 1500 long range MLRS capable of firing ATACMS. While PLA has just around 300 long range MLRS.

Also note that US army is almost half the size of PLAGF which has around 950k soldiers. So, despite that PLAGF long range MLRS count is so much lower.

I think the reason for this huge disparity is doctrinal.

China has long range MLRS and 155MM tube artillery only on the Group Army level. A group army is almost similar to a corps. They operate 122 MM MLRS for brigade level. Which is what limits their long range MLRS count. While US operates their long range MLRS on Division and corps level and they have no 122MM MLRS equivalent.

My numbers are well established from IISS military balance. Which is pretty much the only database containing military equipment for all countries in such detail and updated yearly. I don't think there is any other source that has numbers for both PLA and US military and can be compared in a similar way.

I think PHL 191 is such a powerful and useful capability that there should be more of it in the PLAGF service. So, if PLA has indeed formed dedicated MLRS brigades as some people have mentioned, that is great news. I am sure we will see that reflected in the IISS numbers in a few years if that is indeed true.
 

Blitzo

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US currently has 991 M270 tracked MLRS which is even bigger than the HIMARS, and also 540 regular HIMARS. That's almost 1500 long range MLRS capable of firing ATACMS. While PLA has just around 300 long range MLRS.

Also note that US army is almost half the size of PLAGF which has around 950k soldiers. So, despite that PLAGF long range MLRS count is so much lower.

I think the reason for this huge disparity is doctrinal.

China has long range MLRS and 155MM tube artillery only on the Group Army level. A group army is almost similar to a corps. They operate 122 MM MLRS for brigade level. Which is what limits their long range MLRS count. While US operates their long range MLRS on Division and corps level and they have no 122MM MLRS equivalent.

My numbers are well established from IISS military balance. Which is pretty much the only database containing military equipment for all countries in such detail and updated yearly. I don't think there is any other source that has numbers for both PLA and US military and can be compared in a similar way.

I think PHL 191 is such a powerful and useful capability that there should be more of it in the PLAGF service. So, if PLA has indeed formed dedicated MLRS brigades as some people have mentioned, that is great news. I am sure we will see that reflected in the IISS numbers in a few years if that is indeed true.

So, let's take the IISS numbers at face value (they are typically behind/out of date for the PLA, but whatever).

The reason I am saying that range and payload is important, is because the rockets that M270 and HIMARS use are in a somewhat different weight category to which PHL-03 and especially PHL-191 uses. I'll go over the various calibres and their respective ranges and payloads for leading/modern models below

M270 and HIMARS:
- 227mm: M31 GMLRS, 91kg warhead, 150km with 2024 tests (prior to that, production versions had ranges of 90+km)
- 610mm: ATACMS M57, 230kg warhead, 300km (older M39 has 591kg warhead and 165km range)
- 430mm: PRSM, 91kg warhead, 500km

PHL-191 (and PHL03 for 300mm specifically), ranges all circa early 2020s for export (from brochure below a few years ago at a defense expo -- note, their accuracy/CEP is also for export and thus not utilizing PRC military grade Beidou)
- 300mm: 160kg warhead, export range 130km, domestic range likely longer
- 370mm: 180kg warhead, export range 290km, domestic range definitely longer (often cited as in excess of 300km)
- 750mm: 480kg warhead, export range 290km, domestic range definitely longer (often cited as 500-600+ km)

1758011135565.png


So, if we compare the various calibres:
- PLA 300mm rocket (12 on a PHL03 or 8 on a PHL191) has nearly twice the payload as a leading 227mm rocket (12 per M270 or 6 per HIMARS) at similar (if not greater) range
- PLA 370mm rocket (8 on a PHL191) each has a warhead that is 78% the mass of a 610mm ATACMS (2 per M270 or 1 per HIMARS), at similar or greater range, or each PLA 370mm rocket has a warhead double the mass of a 430mm PRSM (4 per M270, or 2 per HIMARS) warhead but at about 70% the range -- note this means a single PHL191 with 8x 370mm rockets has almost the same lethality from a range/payload pov as four individual M270s if equipped with 2x ATACMs each, or eight HIMARS if equipped with one ATACMs each.
- PLA 750mm rocket/SRBM (2 per PHL191) each has a warhead that is over double the mass of a 610mm ATACMS warhead at nearly double the range, or over five times the mass of a 430mm PRSM at the same range

.... which is why it's difficult to compare like with like.

Of course, it is still true that the PLAGF's MLRS force has room to expand, and I expect them to standardize to PHL-191 in time, and perhaps even expand the size of LR MLRS battalions in their standard artillery brigades (as well as establish additional LRRBs to other theater commands).
And of course the PLAGF's maneuver brigades have 122mm MLRS for shorter range duties organic to the maneuver brigades too, which is indeed partly a doctrinal difference... but the PLAGF's LR MLRS forces are also configured differently to that of the US Army.

The PLAGF's LR MLRS are less focused on oceanic or air strategic mobility (instead, focused on strategic road mobility), and their rockets are focused on range and also payload/warhead mass.
The US Army's LR MLRS are focused more on oceanic and air strategic mobility, and their rockets are increasingly focused on range, but at a relative expense of payload/warhead mass compared to the PLAGF's rockets.

Both the PLAGF and US Army's rockets of course will benefit from world class satellite guidance that their respective nations have.

@Blitzo Couldn't find this reference earlier, but finally dug it up now. From US military intelligence:



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Interesting.
I am not aware of all theater commands having a LRRB, but it's certainly possible that they are all established by now. Though I wonder if it's just that document making an assumption at this point.
 
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bsdnf

Junior Member
Registered Member
US currently has 991 M270 tracked MLRS which is even bigger than the HIMARS, and also 540 regular HIMARS. That's almost 1500 long range MLRS capable of firing ATACMS. While PLA has just around 300 long range MLRS.

Also note that US army is almost half the size of PLAGF which has around 950k soldiers. So, despite that PLAGF long range MLRS count is so much lower.

I think the reason for this huge disparity is doctrinal.

China has long range MLRS and 155MM tube artillery only on the Group Army level. A group army is almost similar to a corps. They operate 122 MM MLRS for brigade level. Which is what limits their long range MLRS count. While US operates their long range MLRS on Division and corps level and they have no 122MM MLRS equivalent.

My numbers are well established from IISS military balance. Which is pretty much the only database containing military equipment for all countries in such detail and updated yearly. I don't think there is any other source that has numbers for both PLA and US military and can be compared in a similar way.

I think PHL 191 is such a powerful and useful capability that there should be more of it in the PLAGF service. So, if PLA has indeed formed dedicated MLRS brigades as some people have mentioned, that is great news. I am sure we will see that reflected in the IISS numbers in a few years if that is indeed true.
US Army can only rely on its own SRBMs, while the PLA has both RF and GF equipped with tactical SRBMs. If we include RF's DF-11 and DF-15, the gap is not that big.
 
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SAC

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So, let's take the IISS numbers at face value (they are typically behind/out of date for the PLA, but whatever).
Which source(s) do you consider the most accurate (timely and comprehensive) in covering the PLA?
 

Blitzo

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Which source(s) do you consider the most accurate (timely and comprehensive) in covering the PLA?

There are no single good sources lol, basically just estimates based on rumours and grapevine noise.

IISS are a fine place to start, as long as one accepts that there's a confidence intervals that usually exceeds their count a little bit (or a lot, depending on platform)
 

qywi5u8s

Just Hatched
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We've had rumours for a while that ETC has a long range rocket brigade composed of multiple PHL-191 battalions under PLAGF but more subordinate to the direct theater joint command rather than PLAGF theater themselves, in addition to the regular long range MLRS battalion that each GA's artillery brigade has.

I wouldn't be surprised if other theater commands also stand up their own long range rocket brigade in time as well especially for north and western commands.

CMSI mentioned it in one of their articles a year or two back (overall article was okay, mileage varies in some areas).
That's indeed the case.I have access to some materials on the rocket force's launch system,from the Western Theater Command
 

TheWanderWit

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My numbers are well established from IISS military balance. Which is pretty much the only database containing military equipment for all countries in such detail and updated yearly. I don't think there is any other source that has numbers for both PLA and US military and can be compared in a similar way.
I would just caution on thinking everything from IISS is automatically a good source or relatively true/good estimate. While they're probably the only Western source that can somewhat gauge numbers of individual platforms that exist within the PLA, it's quite obvious they don't really know about everything and mostly everything are guesstimates or just repeating the same thing over and over year after year with each new edition. For certain platforms it might be fine, but overall, I've kind of concluded its not the best overall.

I checked with for one platform a while back in another conversation. For example, begin from the most recent IISS MB publication (IISS MB2025), and go all the way down to IISS MB2019 (so 5-6 editions), and look at HQ-7 SAM numbers in the PLAGF. They had HQ-7A/B numbers at 200 in MB2025. I went back as far as IISS MB 2019, and it still says 200 HQ-7s despite the fact we know older HQ-7s have been gradually phased out over the years and its replacement is the HQ-17A, so they clearly don't even know themselves and are just copying and pasting the same information from past editions over and over probably to just fill in the report. I only stopped at 2019 too; that number possibly extends another 1-3 editions maybe. Gauging aircraft numbers in the PLA is already relatively difficult, so I highly doubt they'll somehow have an idea or close estimates year after year for gauging individual platforms like MLRS.

Even again, but with the HQ-17A, it first appeared in the 2021 edition I believe at 30+, and then changed to 50+ in MB2023, but that same "50+" number is still stated in the most recent MB2025 edition. I highly doubt the PLA just stopped building and adding HQ-17As for the last 3 years, or haven't phased out a single HQ-7 for the last 5-6 years.. This applies to a multitude of other examples/systems that are listed within the PLA section of their editions. So they aren't exactly the best source and they don't really know.
 

tamsen_ikard

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I would just caution on thinking everything from IISS is automatically a good source or relatively true/good estimate. While they're probably the only Western source that can somewhat gauge numbers of individual platforms that exist within the PLA, it's quite obvious they don't really know about everything and mostly everything are guesstimates or just repeating the same thing over and over year after year with each new edition. For certain platforms it might be fine, but overall, I've kind of concluded its not the best overall.

I checked with for one platform a while back in another conversation. For example, begin from the most recent IISS MB publication (IISS MB2025), and go all the way down to IISS MB2019 (so 5-6 editions), and look at HQ-7 SAM numbers in the PLAGF. They had HQ-7A/B numbers at 200 in MB2025. I went back as far as IISS MB 2019, and it still says 200 HQ-7s despite the fact we know older HQ-7s have been gradually phased out over the years and its replacement is the HQ-17A, so they clearly don't even know themselves and are just copying and pasting the same information from past editions over and over probably to just fill in the report. I only stopped at 2019 too; that number possibly extends another 1-3 editions maybe. Gauging aircraft numbers in the PLA is already relatively difficult, so I highly doubt they'll somehow have an idea or close estimates year after year for gauging individual platforms like MLRS.

Even again, but with the HQ-17A, it first appeared in the 2021 edition I believe at 30+, and then changed to 50+ in MB2023, but that same "50+" number is still stated in the most recent MB2025 edition. I highly doubt the PLA just stopped building and adding HQ-17As for the last 3 years, or haven't phased out a single HQ-7 for the last 5-6 years.. This applies to a multitude of other examples/systems that are listed within the PLA section of their editions. So they aren't exactly the best source and they don't really know.

No one except the PLA itself knows the exact number of systems they operate. Everyone else will be making educated guesses. My understanding is that the way IISS calculates these numbers is based on how many battallions, brigades operate a particular weapon system and then calculate the hull-count based on that.

When it comes to PLAGF, their soldier/brigade count has remained mostly fixed since the 2015 reorg. So, the number of weapon systems they operate will not change too much. Yes, as more modern vehicles are produced they will replace the older ones, but the overall count for each weapon type should remain mostly constant.

IISS probably doesn't have the analyst resources to update the count of all the weapon systems every single year. There are 100s of categories per country and 180 countries to consider. But they do update the count on a regular basis so that we can kinda find the trajectory and pace of modernization and also kinda do head to head comparison between two countries. So, even if HQ-7 count hasn't been updated on a yearly basis, the overall count of short range SAM systems will sort of remain the same.

If PLAGF for example, keeps the current structure of long range MLRS only in the group army artillery brigades, then we can clearly calculate that the number of total unit of long range MLRS will be much low.

However, If PLAGF is indeed forming new brigades composed of MLRS, then over time IISS analysts will update the counts and we will see a huge increase in the count for PHL 191.
 

TheWanderWit

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IISS probably doesn't have the analyst resources to update the count of all the weapon systems every single year. There are 100s of categories per country and 180 countries to consider. But they do update the count on a regular basis so that we can kinda find the trajectory and pace of modernization and also kinda do head to head comparison between two countries. So, even if HQ-7 count hasn't been updated on a yearly basis, the overall count of short range SAM systems will sort of remain the same.
Then to me, that just further reinforces the point that they aren't a source which should be used for everything, if not at all, if we're talking specifically about individual platforms quantitatively. Otherwise, why bother making yearly editions at all then, for that many countries at that? If the entire point is to be a detailed source to give a detailed breakdown of countries respective militaries, their capabilities, and in this context, the quantitative number of individual systems they possess (at the very least close estimates that should differ between reports if they have actually changed based on whatever sources that may be or is at their disposal), but you can't do that in yearly reports, then they're probably better off publishing reports every 2-3 years rather than on a yearly basis, and focusing on a smaller amount of countries in their reports.

It's one thing to say that specific system has been gradually decreasing in numbers based on their estimates or "methodology" report after report, but that isn't the case. So, it's clearly not "updating the count on a regular basis" when they're simply just copying and pasting the same numbers for certain individual systems 5+ reports in a row because they simply don't know and to just fill it in for the report, hence why I say I caution on people using that as a definitive source just because there isn't really any other equivalent groups that do such a thing.

I think there's a difference between "remaining constant" and plastering the same exact number 6-7 years in a row despite the contrary lol. The simple answer is IISS clearly does not have an idea of the quantitative amount of most individual systems (in the context of the PLA here but likely for other countries as well in their yearly publications), even if what they're doing is simply trying to give close estimates (and their methodology to arrive at certain estimates likely doesn't work for everything; e.g. estimating total J-20 or H-6 numbers based on brigades and serials vs a specific individual SHORAD platform), and for the most part, are just repeating the same numbers for most systems from past reports to fill in, and only certain platform numbers change every now and then from whatever they gather.
 
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