PLA strike strategies in westpac HIC

[enroger]

I don't think subsonic stealth plane is that big of a threat to current day China. First of all, stealth is only going to get more and more useless as sensor technology and AI gets better and better.

Radars are progressively getting more and more powerful these days. So they detect smaller object from longer distance. Moreover, AI is getting more smarter, which means even small radar signatures can be identified as a stealth bomber with pattern recognition.

Then there is detection using IR and visible light itself. No amount of stealth technology is going to work against that, unless you have technology to make planes transparent. Due to AI and extreme high powered camera type detection systems, you will have ability to detect objects 100s of KMS away.

Moreover, China will have enough radar, planes and ships to essentially forward deploy and act as forward observers during wartime. So, any B-21 that comes close will be detect way before they come anywhere close to the mainland.

I am not even counting satellite detection since they could be destroyed in a full scale superpower war. But they are an option too.

I think all of these factors will make B-21 detection so much easier that there will be marginal difference between a B-21 detection range and a B-52.

If China can keep B-21 at a distance then it can only launch very large hypersonic missiles to cover the long distance. That will limit how many missiles it can carry in its internal bay. A B-21 that can only carry 1-2 standoff hypersonic missiles is not a big of a threat to China. If they try to carry smaller subsonic missiles, well those missiles are easily intercepted.

The problem is not just stealth, but stealth + stand off strike combo that makes it difficult to deal with. China can detect B-21 but at what range? If the detection range is less than cruise missile range than it is meaningless because the plane would be on return flight before you detect it.

The current best bet to neutralize B-21 threat is just to decimate Guam or any other basing within China's strike range. Just B-2 alone will not be able to generate enough sortie to have meaningful impact.

It would be much better if China can intercept B-21, which is why the talk of ultra-long range SAM is generating some interest, it comes down to whether it is possible to build the kind of detection capability that can support this.

Edit: Another way to deal with B-21 is to have an ISR picket way out beyond 1IC, say a string of KJ's and unmanned awacs patrolling 500km away from the coast. Not an easy thing to set up to say the least.

 

[bsdnf]

The stealth capabilities of JASSM/LRASM are largely limited to low-altitude and head-on engagement.

However, 1. When JASSM/LRASM uses a long-range trajectory, it is relatively easy to detect at high altitude. If it chooses a low range and LO trajectory, the carrier itself would have to risk approaching the PLA's strike range.

2. As the early warning radar network becomes increasingly sophisticated, the possibility of the stealth barrier being burned through from the side is increasing. And when they lose their stealth capabilities, they are easily intercepted.

This is why the United States is developing and procuring extended-range models. As the PLA's detection and strike capabilities are rapidly improving, the range of "Standoff" is rapidly expanding.

 

[tphuang]

I agree that US SSNs are the number two threat after the B-21. Why number two? Because its threat toward Chinese mainland/ground targets are low whereas the B-21 can threaten everything. F-47 when fielded would have immense difficulty taking off from an intact airfield and B-52 are worse in every way to the B-21.

It's kind of pointless to have an argument on whether SSN or B-21 is a bigger threat. The point is that in a Westpac conflict, you are dealing with a lot of threats. It's pointless to just focus on 1.

The evolution of 3rd and 4th generation semiconductor is such that stealth detection is improving at a much faster rate than stealth improvement.

 

[tphuang]

Just read the article.

In a way I'm pretty glad that all those USAF Colonel quacks (and have you noticed, all the quacks who write opinion pieces are all Colonels) are all retired. Because what the article, and by extension, its writer, is advocating for is unlimited conventional strikes on Chinese mainland.

To quote: "It is not enough for the U.S. to simply prevent the PLA from seizing ground on the shores of Taiwan. That by itself will not guarantee victory. A war-winning strategy must also deny sanctuaries to the PLA—including sanctuaries on China’s mainland—and enable U.S. forces to degrade China’s ability to launch long-range air and missile salvos that could cripple U.S. joint force operations in the Pacific. ...

History has repeatedly demonstrated the imperative to deny operational sanctuaries that enable adversaries to husband resources, produce war materiel, train replacement warfighters, secure military leadership, and protect their lines of communication. Because freedom from attack is crucial to enable the freedom to attack, denying sanctuaries is an essential element of any successful warfighting strategy."

Anyone with half a brain-cell would know that such proposed actions will result in nuclear war.

I don't know why you would think that way. In a Westpac conflict, China would also be expected to attack US bases well beyond second Island Chain. There is of course going to be escalation ladders, but I think there are going to be many legitimate military targets inside China that US military will go after.

There is just too many people who thinks B-21 or even F-35 is invisible despite vast amount of evidence to the contrary.

The problem is not just stealth, but stealth + stand off strike combo that makes it difficult to deal with. China can detect B-21 but at what range? If the detection range is less than cruise missile range than it is meaningless because the plane would be on return flight before you detect it.

The current best bet to neutralize B-21 threat is just to decimate Guam or any other basing within China's strike range. Just B-2 alone will not be able to generate enough sortie to have meaningful impact.

It would be much better if China can intercept B-21, which is why the talk of ultra-long range SAM is generating some interest, it comes down to whether it is possible to build the kind of detection capability that can support this.

Edit: Another way to deal with B-21 is to have an ISR picket way out beyond 1IC, say a string of KJ's and unmanned awacs patrolling 500km away from the coast. Not an easy thing to set up to say the least.

I think it's just unrealistic to expect going through a war without taking hits. It's even more unrealistic to think that you can deny US military from launching missiles against you whether it's from B-21 or Virginia class or B-52 or naval ships or Rhinos.

What we are seeing from PLA is increasingly able to attack US bases in Northern Australia, Diego Garcia, Alaska and Hawaii. So, I don't really see B-21 as uniquely able to somehow evade Chinese attacks on air bases that it may operate from.

The biggest difference change recently is probably the ability of Type 093B getting out beyond 2IC and able to launch hypersonic missiles from its VLS. That directly threatens US military bases way beyond 2IC.

 

[tamsen_ikard]

The problem is not just stealth, but stealth + stand off strike combo that makes it difficult to deal with. China can detect B-21 but at what range? If the detection range is less than cruise missile range than it is meaningless because the plane would be on return flight before you detect it.

The current best bet to neutralize B-21 threat is just to decimate Guam or any other basing within China's strike range. Just B-2 alone will not be able to generate enough sortie to have meaningful impact.

It would be much better if China can intercept B-21, which is why the talk of ultra-long range SAM is generating some interest, it comes down to whether it is possible to build the kind of detection capability that can support this.

Edit: Another way to deal with B-21 is to have an ISR picket way out beyond 1IC, say a string of KJ's and unmanned awacs patrolling 500km away from the coast. Not an easy thing to set up to say the least.

I already discussed this in my previous post. What is the range of stand-off weapon? Because the longer the range of the weapon, the bigger it is and thus not many can be carried by B-21. If China can detect B-21 from a longer range of lets say, 500 KM from the mainland, then its good enough. Cause even B-52 probably cannot be detected from longer than that due to carvature of the earth.

So, if B-21 does not provide any significant advantage when it comes to detection range compared to B-52 then it doesn't provide any significant strategic benefit. Essentially it renders stealth useless.

Now, we come to the actual problem, which is mass strike by US bombers Stealth/Non-stealth. If China forward deploys its air power and also its naval destroyers for early detection, then these Bombers will be forced to launch very long range missiles.

If these missiles are subsonic, then the problem is easy since subsonic missiles are easy to intercept.

If US bombers equip themselves with long range hypersonic missiles, those will be very large and thus each bomber can only carry 1 or 2.

Well, China knows about this and that's why it has spent so much on Air and missile defense. China will be able to withstand 150 US Bombers launching 100-200 missiles with its air and missile defense.

There is a problem in China that is lack of number of Air and Missile defense units. But that can be solved with more investment in procuring more air defense missiles. Let's see if they do that or not.

 

[AndrewS]

I already discussed this in my previous post. What is the range of stand-off weapon? Because the longer the range of the weapon, the bigger it is and thus not many can be carried by B-21. If China can detect B-21 from a longer range of lets say, 500 KM from the mainland, then its good enough. Cause even B-52 probably cannot be detected from longer than that due to carvature of the earth.

So, if B-21 does not provide any significant advantage when it comes to detection range compared to B-52 then it doesn't provide any significant strategic benefit. Essentially it renders stealth useless.

Now, we come to the actual problem, which is mass strike by US bombers Stealth/Non-stealth. If China forward deploys its air power and also its naval destroyers for early detection, then these Bombers will be forced to launch very long range missiles.

If these missiles are subsonic, then the problem is easy since subsonic missiles are easy to intercept.

If US bombers equip themselves with long range hypersonic missiles, those will be very large and thus each bomber can only carry 1 or 2.

Well, China knows about this and that's why it has spent so much on Air and missile defense. China will be able to withstand 150 US Bombers launching 100-200 missiles with its air and missile defense.

There is a problem in China that is lack of number of Air and Missile defense units. But that can be solved with more investment in procuring more air defense missiles. Let's see if they do that or not.

The issue with a strategy of focusing on defence, is that the defending against hypersonic missiles is much more expensive than the incoming hypersonic missiles.

So a better strategy is for China to focus on long-range strike on airbases, so that there will be few (if any) incoming bombers to launch any standoff missiles.

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Remember that in the 2030s, the Chinese Navy will still be at a disadvantage in terms of the number of naval aircraft it can field, just because it takes so long to build new carriers.

But if a smaller naval force is combined with sufficient numbers of J-36, it is still feasible to achieve sustained air-sea superiority to a distance of 3000km offshore.

That just leaves a very small number of airbases in the 3IC (Alaska, Hawaii and Australia) to deal with.
And this should be manageable with H-20s, DF-27s, submarines and occasional forays by the Chinese Navy.

That deals with incoming bombers - whilst they are still on the ground.