Didn't it make its first flight five years ago? Why does the article still say first flight?
US F/A-XX and F-X & NGAD - 6th Gen Aircraft News Thread
- Thread starter Jeff Head
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No it didn't, X-planes/Demonstrators did. No one is building an actual prototype let alone production ready plane without winning a contract first.
Is that their excuse for slow F-15EX deliveries now?
Isn't this just a fluff piece talking about how great Boeing is?
They're purposefully trying to trick people who don't know the difference between a tech demonstrator and a prototype. If there really was a flying prototype, then we'd be getting a lot more than non-representative artist impressions.
You can call the X-36 a prototype as well but in reality the X-36 cannot be compared to a pre-production prototype. These are loosely defined terms but military insiders will work to a general standardised definition.
Take for instance the J-36 prototype or J-50 prototypes. Both are pre-production prototypes with onboard EW and avionics at a level advanced enough for the prototypes to already be equipped with or at the very least, have all the right set ups ready for the actual systems. Both have weapons bays already in the prototypes. The X-36 in comparison is the size of a small car and a VERY scaled down model with zero detail and accommodation or thought to things like avionics, weapons etc. It doesn't even begin to address those details because it is such an early study into the planform shape and general aerodynamics. The equivalent early level "prototype" or better defined as experimental aircraft for J-36 and J-50 would have been done more than 5 years before first full scale prototypes which I doubt the aircraft we see in Chengdu and Shenyang are. The J-36 and J-50 prototype we see have internal weapons bays, full scale, metamaterial stealth coatings already applied, avionics, sensor suites positioned or equipped, things like flexible surfaces applied. All of these things aren't necessary even in a first prototype. All of these indicate near production level. Of course it could still be half a decade before production even at this level. It took over 5 years for later F-35 prototypes to get to LRIP.
By the way the US is defining timelines, CAC's J-36 and SAC's J-50 early prototypes would have been around since early 2010s.
What the X-36 is would represent what those articles are referring to when they talk about NGAD/F-47 "prototypes". They are early tech demonstrators... stuff Chinese equivalents were around since early 2010s when the first hint of 6th gen studies were discussed by CAC representatives. This was before J-20 even made it to LRIP. CAC engineers talked about 6th generation fighter design studies. We didn't make a big deal of that because back then, it wasn't really worth talking about.
NGAD and F-47 have no prototypes. This is from the horses mouth. The US fanboys need to get better at literacy. The US in early 2025 said officially that no NGAD of F-47 prototypes have been made. Flying demonstrators aka tech demonstrators aka experimental aircraft have been flown. This means nothing except these programs exist. The US military reps have always used the term demonstrator when describing what they were testing.
Only recently was Boeing awarded the contract to build a F-47 prototype out of the winning design which was decided in part surely by the tech demonstrator evaluations that the US held.
Depending on the specifics of the J-36 and J-50 prototypes and their position in the development cycle, China is at least 5 years ahead of the US in fielding successors to 5th gen fighters currently in operation.
Boeing is just beginning to work on their first prototype for the F-47. What we see in Chengdu is unlikely to be a first prototype. They shouldn't be flying first prototypes of a relatively important military platform openly in a well populated city. I'm also of the belief that J-20 prototype 2011 also wasn't the "first" full scale prototype of the J-20. They would have made sure it flies somewhere in the desert. China's "Area 51" equivalent probably is in the Gobi.
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Boeing didn't get the contract until March so they probably don't have a final design yet. Sure, there are computer tools to make designing fighter planes easier than it was in the past, but it's still a big endeavor that takes a lot of time. I would be surprised if Boeing manages to start construction of the first (flying) prototype in the next couple of years.
US fanboys are still holding their breath on seeing F-47 prototypes. Since December 2024 they were doing this and now most are just coping with saying US versions will always be better than Chinese ones. When the internet sees F-47/NGAD prototype/s flying, the J-36 and J-50 are going to be in pretty much in PLAAF service.
Boeing got the contract (let's give benefit of doubt and assume US selection methods are free of politics and corruption) based on merit and that assessment of merit would have been evaluated against the competing designs. Whether this was in the form of a combination of powerpoint slides, computation modelling and limited scale demonstrators, we dont know. But we do know Boeing won it based on a selection process. This would suggest there are "final designs" around and while those designs were at tech demonstrator level only, they will be refined over the next decade, before the USAF receives their 6th gen platform when it reached LRIP.
Boeing got the contract (let's give benefit of doubt and assume US selection methods are free of politics and corruption) based on merit and that assessment of merit would have been evaluated against the competing designs. Whether this was in the form of a combination of powerpoint slides, computation modelling and limited scale demonstrators, we dont know. But we do know Boeing won it based on a selection process. This would suggest there are "final designs" around and while those designs were at tech demonstrator level only, they will be refined over the next decade, before the USAF receives their 6th gen platform when it reached LRIP.
In a sane world, I'd agree with you, but there's nothing sane about the American procurement system. Think of it this way, Fincantieri won the contract for the Constellation frigate in 2020, and construction began on the first one in 2024. The design still isn't finalized.
But you'd also have to account for the difference in optics and relative military importance between a frigate (a relatively less important platform) for the USN which is already huge and pretty much uncontested especially for anti-sub. Compare that to the invincible and unsurpassable aura the USAF has especially with fielding next generation platforms. This isn't a hypersonic missile gap where the relative urgency depends on the military posture and doctrine.
This is 5th gen - 6th gen leap in fighters. They will feel far greater political and military urgency to not let there be a gap with the Chinese military. Therefore more resources and more corner cut to get the perceptions in alignment. The wider context of generally falling US global dominance, decline in tech and STEM capabilities relative to China (US is still a dominant force in the world with China and both are lapping the rest of the world) and things like a broken economy suffering from all the ills of total free market, late stage capitalism, cronyism and now becoming a plutocracy, the US cannot afford to hold that previous lead over the rest of the world in flagship platforms like fighters.
Contrast this with China that is only recently becoming wealthy enough to play in these fields and finance the MIC. A population that has not that long ago started taking fruit from all the investment in education over the last 70 odd years. Half the US AI industry is powered by Chinese born, Chinese educated engineers... often even Chinese citizens. China's skills capital is paying dividends and will increasingly play dividends even with continued brain drain to the US. We should remember that plenty of these Chinese people bring lessons learned in the US to China.