Taiwan's 2026 total defence spending to rise 22.9% y/y
Defence budget to cross 3% of GDP for first time since 2009 to 3.33%
Well, the 3.33% is far from meeting the Trump Administration's implied threshold in justifying a direct U.S. military intervention. This threshold - as mentioned by Elbridge Colby during his nomination hearing - is at 10%. However, since even fools knows that Taiwan will never able to afford 10% during peacetime, it is widely expected to spend at least 5% of GDP on defense in order to demonstrate to Washington its determination to stand up to China. I doubt that Taipei could meet this 5% target even by 2027 (the judgement year per Admiral Davidson) given the ROC's domestic political divide, especially the inability of the Legislative Yuan to form a consensus around the 5% target, as well as the TPP and KMT's objection to Lai's risky policy approach towards China.
Yet's one should not discount the possibility that Lai could trigger a mini crisis (like shooting CCG personnel in disputed waters, paying visit to Yasukuni Shrine, receiving a sudden unannounced visit by Mike Johnson, arresting Mainlanders married to Taiwanese as hostages, etc.) to try to push members of the Legislative Yuan in line for this 5% target.
At the same time, one has to take consideration into the Trump Administration's likely ideological distaste toward the DPP's progressive roots and "woke" agendas.
